j-dub

Market Cycles: A Look at the Historical Evidence

Wall Street's NEW reality 8/09


beginning of month = rally
end of month = rally hard
end of quarter = rallying too hard for words
California BK = fiscal rejiggering
Michigan next in line = never mentioned
CRE depression = REIT's explode higher
Housing JUNE sales edge higher = housing is rebounding(again)
GS front running trades = liquidity preservation
Banks own congress and the Fed = bank rally
consumer is insolvent = consumer is saving
mass layoffs = across the board earnings' improvement
earnings are not improving = earnings are beating street's expectations

STILL no jobs created= the consumer is temporarilly retrenching<br/>...
deflation = bull rally
expiration of unemployment benefits = unemployment is abating OR
contracting(either will do just fine)
Isn't our economy consumer based? = don't ask, don't tell consumer IS 70% of economy = rebound will be business based
low interest rates = good for stocks
high interest rates = great for stocks
collapsing dollar = buy stocks
rising dollar = not gonna happen
$10 frozen dinner = sure sign of recovery
CIT BK = HUUUUUUUUGE RALLY
CIT not yet BK = reason to be bullish
Bank failure Friday = stabilization
oil @ 50 = recovery is close
oil at $70 = recovery is incredibly close
oil at $90 = starting to recover
oil @ $110 = sign of increased consumer spending
oil @ $5 = boon for Joe Consumer
Gas @ $2 = tax break
gas @ $3 = mustard seeds for economic recovery
gas @ $4 = depression :)
Gas @ $1 = not in our lifetime
employment @ 10 % = better than expected
employment @ 11% = as expected
employment @ 12% = not unexpected
employment @ 13% = could have been expected
real unemployment right now @ 17% = never discussed
real unemployment @ 22% = market could correct from here stealing from our grandchildren = stimulus
stealing from our great grandchildren = "cash for clunkers is a huge
success"
government buying people cars = economy showing signs of life
economy is already dead = S+P 1000, DOW 10k
bear market rally = NEW bull market rally
no basis for NEW bull market rally = dis-included in pumper's handbook

10% unemployment
effects of socialism
depressionary states
higher taxes = THE NEW NORMAL
oppressive government
social unrest
decending to mediocrity


AND IF ALL ELSE FAILS(which probably will):

WWIII = TANGIBLE MANUFACTURING GREEN SHOOT