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  • Anavex Life Sciences: Unbridled Exuberance Requires A Reality Check For Investors In This Biotech  [View article]
    I did, added additional position at $7.44/shr. Hmmmm- up a bit, about 70%+, I think. How was your week?
    Nov 3, 2015. 08:14 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Midday Gainers / Losers  [View news story]
    AVXL- expecting HUGE announcement this coming weekend!!!
    Nov 2, 2015. 01:49 PM | 8 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Anavex Life Sciences: Unbridled Exuberance Requires A Reality Check For Investors In This Biotech  [View article]
    Your answer reminds me of the tap dancing sequence in "Chicago"!

    I don't know what "NPV" is intended to stand for (no par value comes to mind, but seems inappropriate for this application). I do know, however, that certain members of the AVXL board possess incredibly high credentials and experience in their medical fields. If they also didn't have high expectations for the medical science being tested, I doubt very much that they would have affiliated themselves with a "Board" position.

    Still unsure of your motives, and focused solely on AD, you seemed to skip over the beneficial results proffered from the 'epilepsy' testing. The apparent ability that the Ananvex treatment as a supplement can "facilitate" the medications to more effectively reach their specific targets and achieve enhanced results by their working combination, is in itself, remarkable! Hey, I'm just a wee small investor, but when a professional like Lincoln Park antes up $50,000,000 commitments, you can bet they've done the kind of due diligence you and I only wish we had the resources to accomplish.

    I added to my long position on Friday at $7.40 something. How are your "shorts" doing? I don't wish you ill, but I'm betting against you!
    Oct 27, 2015. 08:48 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Anavex Life Sciences: Unbridled Exuberance Requires A Reality Check For Investors In This Biotech  [View article]
    Kudos! to the management that saved a small fortune by acquiring a shell company in lieu of the burdensome costs associated with a start-up and legal registrations! I'd think you'd award them some credit rather than dissing them with what the former management did.

    Then you render your unique method of arriving at a fair market value- and as a result of your extraordinary insight, conclude that AVXL is overpriced. Up 1000% over the past year with no sales or revenues, but, also up 150% over the 2013 highs, and up only 20% over the 2012 highs, also with no sales and no revenues.

    As I see it, no income means no income- unlike tech company 1999 stock market values based on "sales" to one another and no actual receipts, investors are expecting a comparative income, asset or sales analysis in arriving at market values!

    So, throwing conventional valuations out the window, your unique approach renders it a "value", thereby enabling your "overpriced" conclusion. Right? Lest we deem you purely as a 'basher', we'd welcome learning about your methodology in arriving at whatever "is" your fair value, the basis of comparison and what your actual "fair market value" is? That's a fair question, right?

    As an investor, I understand the risks associated with investing in a new company having no sales or earnings. Admittedly, I'm highly curious as to how a professional adviser like yourself, puts an actual comparative value on a stock like this. Thx jf
    Oct 26, 2015. 03:22 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Why Anavex Life Sciences' Warrants Will Crush The Stock By 70% Or More  [View article]
    Silliness! You are completely illogical. If the company does have the warrants exercised, they'll actually realize a ton of money. Regardless, this is a biotech, not a steel company! LLY sells for 6x Book Value, CELG almost 16 times book. If all of the warrants get exercised, just 10x book will be worth $2.50 + or -. But, it doesn't matter. No one is investing for equity value. We're buying the future profitability.
    As you attribute a zero value to potential sales resulting from their clinical and pre-clinical results, you are wasting ink and our time. jf
    Aug 6, 2015. 10:25 AM | 15 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Interview With Dr Christopher Missling, CEO Of Anavex  [View article]
    The stock isn't selling at a measurable price/earnings ratio. It can only be bought as a risk candidate having extraordinary potential. If an adverse effect kills one of the patients in the trial, even if it has nothing to do with the Anavex pill, the bottom could drop out- much like the drop in oil prices killed the shale drillers.
    I like the risk/reward ratios so I'm a buyer. If you can't afford the risk, buy stable income producing stock in stable companies. Either way, never bet the mortgage! With any investment you incur a level of risk. First decide how much risk is affordable, then pick your investments consistent with that level of risk. Good rule of thumb, never invest more than 10% of risk capital in any one stock. Good luck! jf
    Aug 2, 2015. 02:19 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Interview With Dr Christopher Missling, CEO Of Anavex  [View article]
    I appreciate your asking the "tough" question! Slammers love to dwell on non-issues such as patent rights. Also, disclosing you're an investor after your DD was completed is also very professional :). Thanks! jf
    Jul 24, 2015. 10:55 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Halcón Resources: 3Q Earnings Review  [View article]
    Thanks Richard! If you have a minute, could you help explain the nearly $180 mil loss that wiped away most of the $.36 earnings? I'm assuming its attributable to the use and purchase of oil and gas options, but if so, are the getting enough upside protection to justify the loss?
    They're selling about 4,000,000 BO in the quarter. Are they actually spending $45+ per BO to just protect its selling price, or am I adding an extra zero somewhere?
    Am I understanding the accounting and purpose for the downward adjustments properly?
    Thanks! jf
    Nov 12, 2014. 10:37 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Halcón Resources: Eagle Ford Update  [View article]
    Again, well presented and informative. Your charts are very helpful! Thanks. jf
    Sep 6, 2014. 01:29 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • The Commodity Investor: Why Anadarko Petroleum Is A Strong Buy  [View article]
    A pretty Polaroid! I would have preferred to see a greater view of the pending Texas offshore deep-well production. I understand that the oil production potential of that field will be world-class and staggering- a true "Kodak moment"! I've attributed a substantial part of APC's upward move to that potential being online next year. Any updates?jf
    Sep 5, 2014. 10:25 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Halcon Resources: Where Did The Growth Go?  [View article]
    Do more homework and less speculating! If you had bothered to access HK's participation in EnerCom's symposium, you could answer several of the questions you pretend to ask. Firstly, drill count was reduced, in part, due to drilling efficiencies. From 30 days to TD, a record setting 16 days was recently achieved.

    Like most well managed companies, HK has funded for its 2014 CapEx and will plan and drill accordingly. Growing "into" debt takes a great deal of discipline, especially when you are faced with the temptation that developmental drilling in the Bakken offers. Announced was the pending release of the latest Bakken multi-well pad where all wells drilled averaged over 3,000boed. Also, Wilson told us last year that pad drilling would cause interruptions in production- a price paid for cost efficiencies. We may not see the oil today, but it will be forthcoming.

    As to growth, one thing is becoming very obvious. Wilson is promising less and delivering more. EURs in El Halcon are less than what is being found in the Bakken, but offer solid economics and will likely improve as drilling experience and completion techniques develop further. That area is de-risked but doesn't justify the apportioned CapEx that does the Bakken. With all that being said, the company's YoY goal was to budget for a 50-60% production growth for this year, which they are achieving. Their indication is they will likely duplicate this spending and effort in 2015.

    Regarding their TMS acreage, it is a wildcard and to date, hasn't been a part of management's growth strategy. 2015 will likely see production levels of 60-70,000boed from its two de-risked core areas. This expectation takes them to where they need to be, financially. Will the TMS contribute and add to this total? Very likely so and it probably will, because the acreage they own in the TMS has been cored and tested to show some of the best oil content and target formation thickness in the entire basin. That's why!

    Investors don't follow HK based on hype, they are attuned to the latest production results and understand management's logic in its drilling and developmental program. Granted, two years ago debt seemed too high and the justification of the wager was on their faith in Wilson's abilities. Today, we are seeing their confidence rewarded as promised production results and growth is being achieved.

    Positioning a company for a "takeover" is an art form. Within the O&G industry, production, reserves, develop-able leasehold interests, field management integration and delivery systems, commodity pricing and diversification of risk are all elements of consideration. Are two core areas better than one? Are three better than two? Is it just about production? Understanding the answers contribute greatly to growing value and therein lie the required skill sets that Wilson possesses.

    It's a bit late in the year for the TMS to contribute a significant bump to 2014 production averages, but it will likely provide us with a noticeable Q4 exit rate. Another 10 wells in 2015 will further delineate their best locations and likely test some downsizing with a couple pads, while groundwork towards developmental drilling in the Bakken and El Halcon are firmed up.

    2015 will be a year of "affirmative " economics building bottom-line profitability. CapEx at $950 mil again funded in part with some non-core liquidation, internal credit line re-determination and revenue cash flow. With increased production results already predictable, my gut tells me that 2016 will then see an 'stepped-up' developmental phase requiring a higher CapEx justified by their demonstrated successes pushing for 80-85 wells drilled in the Bakken, 50 in the El Halcon and possibly 15 in the TMS to further de-risk it. Their target will be to put production in excess of 100,000boed and achieve their marketable value with minimal additional borrowing.

    It's not just "How you play the game", it's all about winning at the end of the day. Intelligent investing means remaining focused on the end game. You don't have to believe me or the small 'trading' community. Rather, look to where most all of the stock ownership lies- most all of it with insiders and institutions. They don't trade in "hype"! jf
    Aug 28, 2014. 11:10 AM | 13 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Halcon Resources: The Future Remains Questionable And Unclear  [View article]
    To TMS or not to TMS, that is the question, but as far as value goes, it's moot!

    HK has been 'gifted' with enough money to drill and complete a dozen wells in the TMS, but as far as value goes, to date, TMS hasn't added 1% to the company's production so far, and may not! Or, it may! But as to it's success or failure, it's still moot.

    The Bakken and El Halcon will drive production to 100,000 boed over the next few years. When a Partnership like Linn Energy steps up and buys the production and all that goes with it for $160,000 per boed, they don't give a whistle if ALL the production is Bakken, or split with El Halcon, or whether it has TMS production, or not! All they care is that it's 100,000 boed, proven reserves are huge and they can get their new oil and gas production to market. If they have hundreds of thousands of acreage left un-drilled, the sale of those leaseholds only serves to reduce their net acquisition cost, and they're happy clams.

    HK's "Developmental" drilling of their de-risked acreage will get them to the 100,000 level in just a couple more years. If the TMS acreage justifies additional testing or developmental drilling, we'd need to see minimum 25-35% IRRs- which makes it commercially viable. If TMS proves up and drilling continues, reaching a 100,000 boed level happens even sooner. Interestingly, even if HK borrows another $2 Bil to achieve that level of production, which it likely won't, but if it did, shareholders would still get close to $21/shr, fully diluted, rather than $25/shr at that 100,000boed production level.

    Prudent management requires 2014 and 2015 to be "production oriented", pad developmental drilling with focus on maximizing production to keep their bankers happy and stabilize their balance sheet. Q3 revenues can top $350-60mil and 2014 may set a record with total revenues topping $1.4Bil, a 40% YoY increase and positioning 2015 for an even bigger growth differential with or without some increased spending.

    TMS production could contribute to faster growth, but the die has already been cast for HK to accelerate it's 'developmental drilling program' and TMS or not, the Bakken and El Halcon will carry the team colors. I look for HK to increase Capex only slightly for 2015, plan 65 Bakken, 40 El Halcon and another 10 TMS wells- 5 new wells to de-risk, the other five wells drilled to offset and pad drill their best two 2014 wells, searching for some economy of scale while perfecting completion techniques. With me estimating HK's 2015 Capex D&C spending to be about $1-1.05Bill, pretty much most of it can be funded internally with existing or re-determined credit lines, lower per well costs thru efficiencies, and net production revenue income. It's a formula that could drive revenues past the $2Bil mark.

    Anyone who seriously contemplates shorting HK stock while understanding how this scenario would work out, deserves to get their lunch eaten. Keep in mind, too, while today's oil prices are about 5% below last year's price, the biggest percentage of HK's production has already been hedged and locked in and, while we may see some end of summer commodity price declines as we also did last year, too, production averages on a per well basis are significantly greater. So, if you still want to short, I hope you'll see your shrink first. jf
    Aug 23, 2014. 11:57 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Halcon Resources: The Future Remains Questionable And Unclear  [View article]
    VD- there you go again, trying to make gold from copper!
    As you admittedly have no oilfield experience, it's understandable you know little to nothing about valuing O&E stocks and seem to be using this forum to further penny-anti nothing stocks.

    An oil producing stock is valued for a takeover based primarily on its production. It may not be exact, but it's a good rule of thumb- far better than the contrived matrices you conjure up as being even remotely of value in developing market values.

    At 42,000 boed, less LT debt and using fully diluted shares of stock, in today's market, HK is worth about $6.05/ shr. Last year, at 28,000 boed, and using the same market-acquisition price for production, it was worth just $3.20/ shr. See how that works? The market will always respect intrinsic value.

    As a Bull, I am expecting a Q3 and Q4 production level to be at least 44,000 boed, which gives a $7.18/shr value, and realistically closer to 48-50,000 boed, depending on remaining drilling and completion results, quite a few of which may fall into 2015. But at the low end of that expectation, at just 48,000, the market value will increase to about $9.30/ shr- and that should really be the focus of your articles to be of any value to readers. But 2014 isn't the end game!

    If you choose to use words like "staggering", you ought to apply them correctly. For instance, HK's growth production so far this year has been a "staggering" 50%. HK's replacement ratio of production to reserve replacement is a "staggering" 600%. Using the newest completion techniques, combined IP's on a new 8 well HK Bakken drilling pad are a "staggering" 20,000+ boed. By 2016, production will double and revenues could reach a "staggering" $2 Billion. See, those are "staggering" numbers and a puny increase of $8-10 mil in interest really isn't of any interest at all, unless it happens to one of your pint sized comparisons, struggling to increase their production by even 500 boed!

    But where's the focus on the end game? Management is growing production this year by 50-60% and said it can continue at that rate for a few years!! The "Street" is more conservative, projecting growth in the 30 percentile while some investment research and consideration of this years production results lend a 50% growth as realistic. Where do you see the likelihood-between 30% and 50%?

    At 35%, we have a production sale value of $9.15/shr, while at 50%, we can compute a fair market value of $14.22/shr. See! Again, that should be the focus of your article, if it was 'fair and balanced'.

    Rather that focusing on start-ups that could easily fail, why not focus on a stock like HK that can give investors a 250-300% one-year return? Ahhhh, I remember now! It's because you don't own any HK stock, and while fabricating an "obvious fundamental deterioration" and "not touching" the stock, you're refraining from making any formal investment recommendations. Magnanimous! jf
    Aug 23, 2014. 02:02 PM | 13 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Triangle Petroleum: A Value-Enhancing Breakup On The Horizon  [View article]
    Duly noted and thanks. I simply thought it would be interesting to view its prospective value based upon becoming a "pure" O&E company sans its spinoffs and only intended to add another dimension to estimating its investment value.

    Generally, most 'pure play' oil and exploration companies that are mid-size or smaller are all pretty much all considered as potential "take over" candidates and as such, traditional 'banking' valuation approaches reflect a far less accurate stock price value than would or does their 'production' value in any given current market. Once the spinoffs are completed, TPLM will have an excellent liquidity position to retire LT debt or simply expand drilling and lease acquisition activities. Bottom line, however, is that TPLM will still be valued by its production and, I believe, currently stands well undervalued based on its guidance. Thx jf
    Aug 20, 2014. 10:53 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Triangle Petroleum: A Value-Enhancing Breakup On The Horizon  [View article]
    S/B 12 year drilling inventory- not just a 2 year.... jf
    Aug 19, 2014. 11:51 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
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