dr.anthony

Apple Overvalued? Here's What Else You Can Get for the Price

I wonder what disgorged all of the Apple naysayers from their cubby holes these past two weeks? (Late November 2009 to Mid-December 2009)

This post may be an example of the "piling on" phenomenon, i.e., "Monkey see...monkey do." Could be success breeds detractors or, and this is what brings out the Jesse Ventura in me, could be that vested interests NEED to have Apple fall in share price. Why? Well, how about these interests want to buy Apple at a lower price? How about short interests?

I've seen this before in Apple and each and every time the psych 101 maneuvers work till the vested interests get their way and then they pump the stock even higher until the next time they need to push it down to a more buyer friendly price.

This guy, I think he's just piling on and I bet you a 5 star dinner...He's a PC. That's right, I left out good old fashioned jealously and envy as a motivation to knock Apple.

A Worm in the Apple?

I think the new ethos of web journalism is to be found in the old adage that originated in Hollywood, "any publicity is good publicity." My comment here may, like the chorus of critical comments that I now join, may inflate the ego of this "author" by encouraging him to remark to his friends, "they are talking about my writing...my work...me."

No.

I lament the fact that the author, like so many of his ilk, never sat through a research methods 101 class at a university, never passed a rudimentary statistics class and never was exposed to or understood the high school math that underlay the fact that correlation can never be used to assert causation.

This fellow is nothing alone, dare I say a "bad odor in a whirlwind." Nevertheless, when he is joined by thousands of his ilk who are too stupid to know they are stupid flood the airways, we are all diminished.

Yes, I know, how stupid was it for me to write about someone I consider stupid. You may be right.

dr.a

Will Apple Beat 2009 Revenue Consensus?

Zaky is THE analyst to watch. He is always ahead of the curve and brings to any problem: intelligence, scholarship and thoughtful analysis. He is a pleasure to read and a real treasure to the investing community.

dr.a

Gadget Makers Finally Realize Content and the Consumer Are King

Julia Boorstin: In a couple of words: beautiful and smart. Enjoy your work, always informative.

Is Apple More Undervalued Than Other Tech Sector Stocks?

When Andy wrote that he wouldn't invest in Amazon even if it was with Kathryn Huberty's money, I literally laughed out loud. I ask you this, where else can you get scholarly, trenchant AND funny market analysis....and for FREE?

I truly appreciate the way Mr. Zaky presents his thesis, then shifts his viewing angle to make the point again, e.g., "said another way..."

What a pleasure to read, what a great teacher, and he is funny.

Thanks!

dr.a

Reading Apple: iPhone Sales Slightly Off, MacBook OK

Andy: Got a quick question for you. Your analysis has been and is the most complete, scholarly and trenchant. Do you intend or plan to extrapolate from your fundamental analysis a price target? I don't blame you if you avoid doing that, in as much that there appears to be a total disconnect between fundamental analysis and stock price.

Love your work, keep it up

dr.a


On Nov 17 11:46 AM Andy Zaky wrote:

> Nice rundown of Munster's estimates. Notice, that even Munster's
> estimates are conservative. His estimates get moderately beat every
> single quarter, and I'm personally expecting some pretty big upside
> on the quarter. Here are my estimates published at bullishcross.com:
>
>
> Unit Sales:
> 2.8 Million Macs
> 8 Million iPhones
> 22 Million iPods
>
> Earnings Estimates:
> $11.29 Billion in Revenue
> $1.96 in EPS
>
> This is probably the most realistic outlook investors are going to
> receive from any analyst. I'm brutally honest at a time where some
> want me to keep my mouth shut. ;)
>
> I simply cannot do that.

Apple's 'Real' Earnings: Up Almost 125%

I have said it before, but it is worth repeating, Andy Zaky is the premier financial analyst for any number of reasons. He is careful, thorough, does his homework. He is the #1 financial analyst when it comes to Apple. He makes so many brilliant points that it is overwhelming. His editorial comments regarding mainstream analysts is spot on.

We are witnessing the birth of a great financial analyst. I am appreciative and value his work.

dr.a

Imminent Rate Cut? - Cramer's Stop Trading! (10/3/08)

Why in God's name do we permit the premeditated destruction of an American company by hedge fund thugs who use innuendo, rumors, story plants, manipulation, and outright thievery to line their pockets?

Picture these guys in their double breasted pin-stripped suits sitting over a plate of beef tartar, overly white teeth and pudgy cheeks plotting the demise of a great company like Apple. Only in America and only in a country that still does not get it that unless you put these thugs out of business once and for all, our country will suffer. The hedge fund mafia will kill the goose that laid the golden egg.

Banning Shorts Works in Fancy Restaurants, Not the Marketplace

Framing the issue as a yea or nay on short selling is NOT the issue. The issue that the shorts refuse to confront is simply this: Should there be rules that govern short selling? Reinstitute the "uptick" rule and enforce the ban on naked short selling. Shorts do not want those rules reinstituted in the same way that aggressive pitchers in baseball don't like the umpires ban on the "bean ball" (intentionally throwing at the batter's head). Bear raids are made possible because Christopher Cox cut the number of umpires in half and permitted a free-for-all, rapacious, vulgar stampede toward greed. Imagine a game where the men and women carry bats, have rock-hard baseballs, cleats on their feed and NO RULES! How long before there is blood on the field? That is what we have folks. Put the umps back in the game and let's play ball!

Apple Investors: Fasten Your Seatbelts, Put On Helmets

When I first stumbled across this guy he was trying to out cramer...cramer. He posted incessantly on the aapl boards and I felt sorry for him because fellow aapl message board posters really gave him a bad time, e.g., "baldy," "idiot," etc. He was accused then of being a secret short, a trader who would play the psych 101 game of scaring investors when he was short and pumping aapl when he was long. Guess what, I now join the aapl message board members who accused this guy of ALWAYS TALKING HIS BOOK. Hey Bass, I have met Jim Cramer and you sir are no Jim Cramer. Fool me once shame on you, fool me twice, shame on me.

Apple: Are Investors Overlooking Cash Earnings?

Exquisite analysis!

Steve Jobs: Honesty Is the Best Policy

I disagree with the author. Mr. Job's personal health is only an issue if, and only if, it materially affects the stockholders. For example, a material effect would include a head injury that altered Mr. Job's ability to process information. I consider immaterial effects those that arise from gossip, rumor mongering by hedge fund managers and the like. For example, "Apple's CEO's cancer has returned."

We all understand the pragmatist's view: that "why not set the record straight?" But consider that once "setting the record straight" becomes the standard, each and every rumor becomes a demand to deny that which isn't true.

The fact that the author saw fit to engage in an ad hominem attack on Mr. Jobs, e.g., "arrogant f_ _k" it should not surprise anyone that Steve Jobs, his innovative and record setting company and the rest of us, have an opinion about who, when all is said and done, is the "arrogant f_ _k." It isn't Apple's CEO.