Chuck Okie

Natural Gas: Worst Investment Ever?

NG has other troubles. Eventually utilities, and large users, will diversify a portion of their supply by entering into some long term contracts for LNG. Global iquifaction plant capacity has been increasing at the +/- 25% for the last few years and five years ago (before the capacity increase) the breakeven point for shipping and re-gasifying was in the $3-4 per MCF. This creates a nice margin relative to the retail price and if there is any volatility in the domestic wellhead price, the steady volumes and price of LNG only become more attractive.

Remember $20 Oil? Looks Like It's Coming Back

I respectfully submit there hasn't ever been a perpertual bull market.

Remember $20 Oil? Looks Like It's Coming Back

Well some interesting dialogue.

There are a number of wild cards...the most since most of us have been alive.

I throw out one of the many: Iran. The elections weren't about the conservative democracy / theocracy. It was about many things: 25% inflation, unaffordable housing, demographics, authority driven society, azadi, etc.

We are in a period where the traditionally simple rules we learned from the sellers' overgeneralizations, whomever they were, apply...it is near complete uncertainty, in every business, world wide. It is a fascinating time.

Remember $20 Oil? Looks Like It's Coming Back

Please understand my first comments were not directed toward Kalpa, but to Professor Banks.

Remember $20 Oil? Looks Like It's Coming Back

I agree, oil could drop precipitously from its current price. but to what level I can't predict. The markets are ahead of themselves...conventional wisdom is often correct in the short term but usually because they are self-fulfilling. And it does depend upon one's view of the global economy. Governments around the world wouldn't be pursuing the actions they are if their economies were solid.

Remember $20 Oil? Looks Like It's Coming Back

We should all feel fortunate, no humble, that "the world's leading academic energy economist in the world" would share his thoughts with us.

I read extensively and have been around PhDs all of my life, including economists and engineers with proven stature in the history of the global petroleum industry, but I've never known any of them that declare they are the greatest.

The only person that comes to mind that declares they are the greatest is Donald Trump, but in recent court hearings he admitted he is a self-promoter.

I need to extend my reading because I don't remember Einstein, etc. making that claim.

Please give we inferior minions some detailed predictions so we can hope to learn from you.

Oil Prices, Global GDP, and Net Oil Exports

Thanks for the net exports perspective; fits within my qualitative understandings.

Conceptually speaking, if annual production declines worldwide were 4%, annual world world production needs to increase ~ 3.4 MMBOPD. Some of the largest fields are declining more than that and the Saudi's recent increases ~ = the increase in their internal comsumption over the last year. New production is coming online but has been and will be hampered by delays, all while production declines.

My predictions aren't any better than anyone else's, even though I have good domestic and international experience / credentials, both directly and indirectly for all of my life. But in actions vs words, I have a larger percentage of my children's trust in commodities than the WS recommended 5%. But I also balance that out with a heavy cash position, foreign and domestic, and bonds.