Perhaps more than any other time in the last six decades, the fate of markets is inextricably intertwined with the ebb and flow of geopolitics. From the ECB's attempts to use the central bank's balance sheet to influence political outcomes across the eurozone to Saudi Arabia's efforts to transform the kingdom's influence over crude prices into an instrument of foreign policy, it's become increasingly clear that one simply cannot fully comprehend market movements without a thorough understanding of concurrent political outcomes. Drawing on extensive experience in both politics and finance, Heisenberg will help demystify a world in which investors can no longer hope to conceptualize markets as existing in anything that even approximates a vacuum. "I am the one who knocks."
John Thomas graduated with a bachelor’s degree in biochemistry with honors and a minor in mathematics from the University of California at Los Angeles (U.C.L.A.) in 1974. He moved to Tokyo, Japan where he was employed by a medium-sized Japanese securities house. Thomas became fluent in Japanese and was trained as a domestic Japanese research analyst and money manager. In 1977 Thomas became the Tokyo correspondent for The Economist magazine and the Financial Times of London. Thomas traveled extensively throughout Asia, interviewing premiers, presidents and prime ministers, writing on macroeconomic trends, and producing countless features about individual companies. Thomas witnessed China’s cultural revolution and was one of the first American correspondents to enter China prior to the U.S. normalization of relations. Thomas authored several books about the Japanese financial system still in use by business schools today. In 1983 Thomas joined a top US investment bank in New York with the mandate to develop an international equity business for the firm. In 1985 he moved to London, England to establish a presence in Japanese equity derivatives for the firm. In 1989 Thomas was appointed a director of one of the big three Swiss Banks with a mandate to design sophisticated hedging strategies for the bank’s considerable holdings of Japanese equity warrants and convertible bonds. With the invasion of Kuwait by Iraq, Thomas was drafted by the US Marine Corp to serve as a pilot. In 1990 Thomas became a pioneer in the nascent hedge fund industry by founding the first dedicated Japanese hedge fund. The firm managed segregated accounts for a variety of government agencies, banks, and high net worth individuals in Europe, the Middle East, and Asia. After a decade of spectacular absolute and relative performance he sold his firm in 1999 and retired to manage his personal investments in the oil and gas industry. Seeing incredible opportunities in the marketplace and yearning for the adrenaline and satisfaction offered by active management, Thomas launched a new hedge fund in 2007. In his free time Thomas is a commercial aircraft pilot, long distance hiker and mountain climber, wine collector and avid photographer.
I'm a tech professional who seeks out stocks with asymmetric risk/reward profiles, primarily in the biotech and tech sectors. I often take medium-term positions in risky contrarian markets with the expectation of large time-averaged gains from these special situations. I'm always looking for an undervalued opportunity, even if it's long term, regardless of market cap. I also follow and comment on commodities and demographics.
Ian Bezek worked for 3 years as an analyst at a New York-based hedge fund. He's currently living in Mexico, pursuing some entrepreneurial opportunities.
Feel free to contact him regarding investments, writing, or speaking opportunities.
Elephant Analytics has an Bachelor of Business Administration degree with a concentration in marketing and finance, and 13 years of experience as an analyst. Elephant Analytics originally focused on marketing and sales analysis due to geographical and lifestyle considerations, but rekindled his interest in finance and investing several years ago and became a contributor to Seeking Alpha in 2013. He has a particular interest in attempting to understand distressed companies and distressed industries.
Elephant Analytics has unique skills in the areas of numerical analysis and applied mathematics. Elephant Analytics achieved a top 50 score on the Bloomberg Aptitude Test (out of nearly 200,000 test takers) which measures financial aptitude. Elephant Analytics also has achieved a score (153) in the 99.98th percentile on the WAIS-III IQ test and has also been involved in multiple teams that have won awards during business and strategy competitions involving numerical analysis. In one such competition, he captained his team to become North American champions, ahead of MBA and undergraduate teams from universities such as Harvard, Yale and Northwestern.
Legal Disclaimer: Elephant Analytics' reports, premium research service and other writings are personal opinions only and should not be considered as investment advice. Only registered investment advisors can provide personalized investment advice. While Elephant Analytics attempts to provide reports that include accurate facts, investors should do their own diligence and fact checking prior to making their own decisions.
Brian Harper, CFA is Chief Investment Officer of Harper Asset Management, LLC, which he founded in 2001. Harper Asset Management is a value-oriented investment manager, primarily managing separate accounts for high net worth individuals. Visit us at www.harperasset.com.
Harper Asset Mgmt operates a bottom-up, fundamental, research intensive approach to investing. We focus primarily on value, special-situation, and micro-cap issues.
Formerly Chief Market Strategist at Capital Ladders Advisory Group LLC. After the sale of certain of CLAG's retail and institutional assets in October 2015, I have commenced my latest venture in the CPG industry which is centered on the development and licensing of consumer and commercial technology. https://www.linkedin.com/profile/view?id=AAIAAA3lJ9IBNi1rhhFzRWElkJl4MpyNuIiHglQ&trk=nav_responsive_tab_profile
CooLinX Integrated Technologies develops technologies for the beverage and CPG industry. We are presently effecting licensing agreements with multi-national brands and co-developing products aimed for mass market consumption.
I spent many years working in various analytic jobs and trading on Wall Street. For nine of those years, I traded junk bonds for a large bank. I have an MBA from the University of Chicago, with a concentration in accounting and finance. Currently I co-manage a precious metals and mining stock investment fund in Denver. My goal is to help people understand and analyze what is really going on in our financial system and economy.
I am a retired college faculty in Philosophy, with specializations in Ethics, Socio-political Theory and Rational Choice/Decision Theory. My teaching focus was on Business Ethics, Medical Ethics and Logic. After retirement I freelanced as a Grant Writer/Fund Raising Consultant. I have taught at Washington University in St. Louis, the University of Missouri - St. Louis, and St. Louis Community College.
I believe that potential investments ought to be evaluated through an examination of their fundamentals - i.e., fundamental analysis. Those investments can then be analyzed with respect to whatever criteria an investor may wish to bring to bear, but at least the investments they make will be more or less fundamentally sound. For me, one of the more important features of an investment (after fundamentals are satisfied) is dividend yield. I expect my investment to earn money for me.
I also believe that the day of the "traditional" investment strategy based on one's age/proximity to retirement is over. To be sure, one wants to put one's money in places where it is more secure, but in the day and age of internet-based investment services, a variety of ETFs, and reasonably safe investment vehicles, there is no need for retired people to stick the bulk of their assets in relatively unprofitable treasury notes and bonds.
Saj Karsan founded an investment and research firm that is based on the principles of value investing. He has an MBA from the Richard Ivey School of Business, has completed all three CFA exams, and has an engineering degree from McGill University. Visit his blog, Barel Karsan (http://barelkarsan.com/).
Jeffrey Dow Jones is the managing editor for Alpine Advisor. He has previously worked for PaineWebber/UBS and Ford Motor Credit Company, and he spent the last decade co-managing a group of hedge funds. He holds a degree in Business Economics with a specialization in Computer Programming from The University of California - Los Angeles.
He publishes a free weekly newsletter at AlpineAdvisor.info.
Individual investor focused upon a limited number of diversified stocks. Seeks stocks selling below fair value; favors dividend growth. Advocates fundamental investment analysis, supplemented by the technical charts. Options strategies primarily employed to generate additional income or hedge risk.
HFI Research Premium Subscribers get 5 weekly reports: HFI Portfolio Weekly Update, Natural Gas Weekly Outlook, Oil Markets Weekly Outlook, Weekly Rant (investment topics), Big Picture Outlook.
Our TipRank profile: https://www.tipranks.com/bloggers/hfi
Kiran is an independent research consultant in the areas of volatility-based and leveraged instruments, including several proprietary strategies.
His services include hypotheses generation, back-testing, risk/return analytics, and predictive modelling for proprietary trading strategies, as well as research consulting in the above areas. Expected and realized returns for his 2 flagship strategy portfolios exceed 100% on an annualized basis, while maintaining expected and realized Sharpe ratios over 3 times higher than the S&P 500. Kiran was mentored by Wall Street research veteran Mark Gomes. Alongside Mr. Gomes, he brought Wall Street level research to retail and institutional investors through PTT Capital's flagship newsletters.
I am a dividend investor and look for undervalued investments in the stock market. I identify misunderstood and undervalued equity investments and hold those securities until their price approximates my estimate of intrinsic value. I am a long-term investor only.
I am building a $100,000 high-yield income portfolio. I am running this portfolio as an experiment to see if long-term sustainable income can be generated from a diversified pool of high-risk, high-yield securities. I am willing to accept high risk in order to meet my performance goals.
David Zanoni is ranked in the top 1% of blogging analysts on Tipranks.com for performance and accuracy. He focuses on growth & momentum stocks that are reasonably priced and likely to outperform the market over the long-term. David is a graduate of Rutgers University with a B.S. in Management. He is an independent long term investor of quality stocks and uses options for strategy. David believes in the power of innovation, capitalism, and the characteristics of the American spirit: intellect, fortitude, and adaptability to lead our country and the world to growing prosperity. His wants to help make people money by investing in high-quality growth stocks.
Having always been a learning machine, I speak five languages, have worked as a sales agent, project manager, translator, computer consultant, software engineer, built a house with my own hands, published books and essays on literature, philosophy and art, have written for magazines of various kinds in different countries.
After retiring early in 2004, little by little, I have become a fund manager for some friends and myself, following the principles of value investing laid out by Benjamin Graham, Phil Fisher, Charlie Munger and Warren Buffett. You can read about my thoughts on a suitable portfolio structure for early retirees here.
My articles should not be considered to be any kind of investment advice. What suits me well is not necessarily good for others, as successful investing is somewhat like a marriage: If only one is perfect, the marriage won’t work. So please do your own research and remember Benjamin Graham's advice: “The investor’s chief problem — and even his worst enemy — is likely to be himself.”
I sincerely hope that my readers will ignore the Performance calculations provided by Seeking Alpha (although only to Pro subscribers, I believe). For reasons unknown to me, some of my European stock picks seem to be tracked inaccurately by Seeking Alpha's system. Spin-offs are not included in total return calculations and many of my correction requests didn't receive any answer at all. Moreover, my time frame almost never is as short as only 1 year (the maximum included in Seeking Alpha's table) and personally I consider the 1 year performance of my stock picks to be close to meaningless.
Chris Ciovacco is the founder and CEO of Ciovacco Capital Management (CCM), an independent money management firm serving individual investors nationwide. The thoroughly researched and backtested CCM Market Model answers these important questions: (1) How much should we allocate to risk assets?, (2) How much should we allocate to conservative assets?, (3) What are the most attractive risk assets?, and (4) What are the most attractive conservative assets?
Chris is an expert in identifying the best ETFs from a wide variety of asset classes, including stocks, bonds, commodities, and precious metals. The CCM Market Model compares over 130 different ETFs to identify the most attractive risk-reward opportunities.
Chris graduated summa cum laude from The Georgia Institute of Technology with a co-operative degree in Industrial and Systems Engineering. Prior to founding Ciovacco Capital Management in 1999, Mr. Ciovacco worked as a Financial Advisor for Morgan Stanley in Atlanta for five years earning a strong reputation for his independent research and high integrity. While at Georgia Tech, he gained valuable experience working as a co-op for IBM (1985-1990). During his time with Morgan Stanley, Chris received extensive training which included extended stays in NYC at the World Trade Center.
His areas of expertise include technical analysis and market model development. CCM’s popular weekly technical analysis videos on YouTube have been viewed over 700,000 times. Chris’ years of experience and research led to the creation of the thoroughly backtested CCM Market Model, which serves as the foundation for the management of separate accounts for individuals and businesses.
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10 years of buy-side investment experience.
Disclaimer: Any content on this site is NOT investment, trading, legal, or tax advice, and none of the information available through this website is intended to provide tax, legal, investment or trading advice. Nothing provided through this content whether by the owner or posted by other writers constitutes a solicitation of the purchase or sale of securities/futures. The content on this site is intended for informational purposes only, and should never be used as investment advice. Please do your own research before making any investment decisions.
Chris DeMuth Jr. is the founder of Rangeley Capital LLC. Rangeley is an investment firm that focuses on event driven, value-oriented investment opportunities. Rangeley Capital and his value investing forum, Sifting the World (StW), search the world for misplaced bets. Rangeley exploits them for its investors and then Mr. DeMuth writes about them on StW.
-I have been investing since the fall of 2008 and invested through one of the most difficult investing periods in history and know the importance of dividend growth and stability during those times as well as during the good times. I started writing for Seeking Alpha a little over three years ago and I have been successful with the companies I write about, which is shown by my high TipRanks success rate (Link Below). https://www.tipranks.com/bloggers/brad-kenagy
I hold a B.S. in Accounting.
"[T]he function of the margin-of-safety is, in essence, that of rendering unnecessary an accurate estimate of the future. If the margin is a large one, then it is enough to assume that future earnings will not fall far below those of the past in order for an investor to feel sufficiently protected against the vicissitudes of time."
"Needless to say, the analyst must take possible future changes into account, but his primary aim is not so much to profit from them as to guard against them. Broadly speaking, he views the future as a hazard which his conclusions must encounter rather than as the source of his vindication."
"[F]inding the really outstanding companies and staying with them through all fluctuations of a gyrating market proved far more profitable to far more people than did the more colorful practice of trying to buy them cheap and sell them dear…These opportunities did not require purchasing on a particular day at the bottom of a great panic."
Michael Ashton has been a recognized leader in developing the U.S. inflation derivatives market. He traded the first interbank U.S. CPI swaps in 2003 and, as a dealer, was a primary liquidity-provider in that market for two large banks. He represented about one-third of interbank swaps volume during his tenures at those firms. He invented and was the sole market-maker for the CME CPI Futures contract. He has written and spoken extensively about the use of inflation-indexed products for hedging real exposures, and has written more broadly in a commentary format about the rates markets and macroeconomy. Mr. Ashton is currently the managing principal at Enduring Investments LLC. His comments on this site and others are not posted in that role, and no opinions of his should be construed to be recommendations of or to reflect the views of his employer. He recently published "What's Wrong With Money? The Biggest Bubble of All."
The Parsimony community is made up of thousands of do-it-yourself dividend and income investors working toward one common goal...generating consistent income!
Our strategy is simple:1. Buy great dividend stocks at reasonable prices.2. Enhance income with conservative option strategies.3. Manage risk through diversification and exit strategies.
Our research (which includes dividend stock rankings, single stock Buy Zone reports, stock screens, and model portfolios) will give you all the tools you need to build and monitor your own DIY Dividend Portfolio and super charge that portfolio with conservative option strategies (cover calls and cash-secured puts).
For more information about our subscription services click the links below:
- DIY Dividend Portfolio
- Triple Income Portfolio (stocks + options)
Doug Carey is the owner and founder of WealthTrace. He has over 19 years of experience in the financial markets. He has a masters degree in Economics from Miami University in Oxford, Ohio and a B.S. degree in Economics, with an emphasis in Finance, from Ball State University. Mr. Carey began managing money in 1997 when he became a portfolio manager for National City Bank helping to oversee over $10 billion in assets. He managed money for pension funds, 401K funds, mutual funds, large companies, and endowment funds. He has also been managing money for families for over 13 years. Before starting WealthTrace, Mr. Carey helped build a financial software company where he designed and created software to help portfolio managers and investment professionals analyze and manage portfolios and securities.
Mr. Carey also offers one-on-one financial planning and investment management services through our Registered Investment Advisor (RIA) firm. We are fee-only and do not work on any commissions so our goals are aligned with yours. Because we do everything online we can charge much less than standard advisors for our services.
I have worked in the financial service industry for 40 years. My area of expertise is risk management and complex financial products. I have been a frequent speaker, on behalf of many financial firms, to financial professionals across the country.
I have extensive experience in statistics and actuarial science.
I was first interested in stocks and investing while in High School. With my first job I saved a significant portion of that and put it into various instruments i.e. Roth IRA and stocks mostly. I started college for Business Administration and continued teaching myself principles of investing and savings and good personal finance. I graduated with an MBA in Financial Planning from California Lutheran University in May of 2011.
I have not worked in any capacity as a financial analyst but have significant experience in stock analysis mainly using fundamental methods but have recently started using technical analysis as well. A significant portion of my free time is spent with this hobby and I have a lot at stake as I have been investing roughly 40% of my salary for the last 16 years. I have a significant nest egg at the moment and hope to be partially retired within 5 years by 2019. I have been building a property rental and investment business and continue to build that and expand that.
What does the future bring for me? I hope to continue building and growing my business as well as publish articles on investing and start a blog in the future as well.
Who I Am: I'm a retired individual investor. I retired at the end of 2013 after a 35 year career as a professor and research scientist at a major research university. So -- a career as a researcher and an educator, which is what I hope to continue here. Virtually every good teacher I've ever known says some version of "I learn more from teaching than my students do." There's a lot of truth in that, enough that there's an underlying selfish motivation for my writing here as I continue to learn about investing.
My professional life involved multiple international projects and collaborations, so I traveled extensively over those 35 years. I plan to continue doing so in my retirement. One consequence is that I'm liable to disappear from the site for extended periods. How can you miss me if I don't go away?
My investing priorities are building and refining portfolios designed to provide income and capital growth: Income for my retirement needs, and capital growth for my estate. My investing interests are tax-advantaged income from a range of sources, portfolio strategies, information- and bio-technology, and momentum-based strategic allocation.
Why I Write for Seeking Alpha: I learned long ago that "writing is nature's way of letting you know how sloppy your thinking is." The line comes from a Guindon comic strip of many years ago, and could not be more true in my case. When I did research professionally, I learned that writing it up forces me to think about details I might otherwise overlook. It's how I spent my working career, so it comes more or less naturally to me. I consider it an essential part of doing any research. So, the writing I do here is as much for myself as for the reader. As I started to contribute articles here, they grew out of research for my personal investment portfolios. They're based on things I've uncovered that are of interest to me and may be of interest to others of like mind. My primary purposes in writing them are to help clarify my thinking and to get feedback from others who may have very different opinions. It's those thoughtful comments that make Seeking Alpha such an important resource.
I try to actively engage myself in the comment streams in my articles, contributing what I can and learning from others. As a research scientist I spent a career spanning four decades devoted to free exchange of information vetted by rigorous peer review. It's a concept I firmly believe in. I hope to bring that approach to my interactions and contributions on Seeking Alpha and welcome critical commentary on anything I may contribute here. I especially encourage and appreciate thoughtful comments from those who disagree with me (although I will ignore obvious trolls and encourage others to do so as well). So, go ahead, start a conversation in the comment threads. It's one of the best things about Seeking Alpha.
My Investment Philosophies and Strategies: I maintain two portfolios. My income portfolio is a taxable account. I try to keep it separate from the growth portfolio which is housed in a series of IRAs, traditional and Roth. My income focus is on tax-advantaged income. In 2016 I face minimum required withdrawals from my tax-deferred accounts, so tax efficiency is an important consideration. The IRAs I see as my estate and are focused on generational wealth building. That means the growth portfolios have a long-term horizon, well beyond what an investor of my age might be expected to maintain.
Who Is Left Banker? Ah yes, the name. When I first joined Seeking Alpha I had no intention of being anything but an occasional reader. I saw it as another research site. So, I just ported a name I've used on other sites. I spent some of the best times of my life living on the left bank of the Seine and am always thrilled to be back in La Belle Paris. Add that I also like it because I find several subtle word plays there; I'll leave it to you to decipher that comment.
Finally, I've chosen to remain anonymous, which I feel obligated to justify. First, I have no professional role in finance and nothing to sell, so there is no advantage to be gained by "making a name for myself' here. Second, I value my privacy and have kept my internet presence as low-key as my professional life allowed. I certainly want to avoid any possibility of some internet connection trying to track me down. Odds against that happening are, of course, outrageously long, but why take them on at all?
Disclosures: I have no ties to the financial or security industries in any form. My interests are strictly personal. The banker part of the nym has absolutely no relationship to the profession of the same name. Readers should be aware that I am an investing novice, some might say dilettante. I do not give advice; what I publish is much more in line with a research notebook. Anyone who finds anything of interest will necessarily want to do his or her complete research and due diligence. It would be foolish to rely on my conclusions without having done so.
I just recently caught the investing bug and started taking an active interest in my (presently meager) portfolio in October, 2011. Turns out I'm not too bad at making my own picks, and I really enjoy doing my own research. So far my picks have significantly outperformed those of my high-priced broker (by about 10X). I've only got about 17 years left before I'll have to retire, and I've gotta get a move on if I want to enjoy my Golden Years and not end up having to work as a WalMart greeter on the graveyard shift. Seeking Alpha and The Motley Fool have helped me learn a great deal in a short period of time, but I've got a long way to go. I'm currently focused on building a portfolio of solid, stable dividend growth ... More stocks, with some pure growth (speculative) positions thrown in. At present I have 30 positions that yield an average of 5.3% in dividends. I'm hoping to learn more about options and save enough on the side so I can start playing with trading options; I'm looking forward to actively managing my portfolio in my retirement, and want to get really good at it before then.