Freefalling

Spending: The Exhausted Consumer

Funny about Hu. I read about how we are like the falling British Empire and China is analogous to the US in the previous depression. I like to call this 'The Not-So-Great Depression'

Our entire system is predicated on maintaining our standard of living by usurping all of the world's resources in exchange for our fiat currency. If Bangladesh were permitted to run multi-billion dollar trade deficits every month with only the promise of more magic currency, they could enjoy a much higher standard of living too.

There is no direct correlation between taxes and government spending. Our plan is continue to hoard all of the worlds resources to maintain our artificial opulence, and crush any opposition. You have to look at the world in a much different way than obvious cause and effect--it's much more complex than that.


On Aug 29 09:23 AM perceptions_now wrote:

> PS - I not sure how the next batter will get on, but I do know Hu
> will be on first base!
> www.youtube.com/watch?...

Five Reasons the Market Could Crash This Fall

Actually, these are just clarifications and a summary of much of what is already common knowledge. There are a number of issues which still haven't been mentioned: 3T in bad commercial property loans. Bankrupt CA and other states (that's not fixed yet). Alt-A mortgages being recast to ~500B. Millions underwater, delayed foreclorsures. Do you argue the unemployment figures? Inflation is not low--real buying power is diminished, although some deflationary demand-destruction effects are visible. Currency destruction--not demand-pull inflation. Quantitative easing is not the same as economic recovery. We've had stock collapses in 1987, 1989, 1990, 1993, 1997. 2000, 2003, 2007-2008-2009. There is no way the average investor has the information to protect himself from the crashes. What makes you think YOU know there WON'T be one now? Jim Cramer tell you? Brilliant!


On Aug 04 10:49 PM FB5000 wrote:

> Remarkably wrongheaded. I actually feel sorry for you.
>
> Not a single economic argument. More data came out today - also good.
> We are in recovery. Economy is growing. Q3 will see +2% to 4%. Q4
> will also be good. Here's a tip. Pay attention to back to school.
> As goes BTS - so (mostly) goes Q4 retail. It will be a nice tell.
> Earnings are growing. Inflation is low. Earnings drive the market
> and you are going to see very nice sequential growth in Q3 and Q4.
> In 2010 the Q on Q compares will be good.
>
> That is what is driving the rally. We will see some pullbacks but
> we are heading higher. Recovery will be "v" shaped. the issue now
> is will it be "V" or "v'
>
> That's all.
>
>

Uncle Ben Signals the End Game

Low interest = weak dollar, except in times of severe crisis, where panic = buy dollars as safe haven, like getting under a tree in an electric storm or taking a boat out to see so it won't get crushed when a hurricane comes ashore...


On Dec 01 09:59 PM svosavvy wrote:

> low interest=strong the dollar which is the inverse of gold

Uncle Ben Signals the End Game

My take is that the bear-market rally folks know when to walk away, and know when to run. Since all parameters are a function of expectations (eg. "Good news, I thought you would lose both legs, but we only had to amputate one.") and not of absolute merit, we only need to lower expectations more and then we can have another rally. Say "experts predict weekly first-time UE at 650,000." Then number like 575,000 comes in and it can be called good news and Citi goes on a tear (big climb, not more crying).

This Isn't a Bottom, It's a Disturbance in The Force

The was just the precursor. We're not even in the first inning--this is spring training. Wait until the big Alt A loans reset next year and for the next three more, or the trillions in hedge fund collapeses. We haven't started to unwind the commercial real-estate bubble. Do you think the world will ever fall for our Ponzi schemes again and we have not industry left. I don't even know if I want to be around in 2012.

Mark-to-Market vs. Mark-to-History

Excellent point. It is a complex world and rules are meant to keep an even keel--not capsize the boat to port rather than starboard! Unfortunately, we've only seen the first squal--when the Alt-Option loans start defaulting en-masse, we will need a multi-trillion dollar backstop. Maybe the central bank of Mars will inject some liquidity. One thing for sure, a lot of baby boomers are going to work-to-tombers...

America's Fiscal Crisis: Tough Decisions Needed Now

Indeed, perhaps all is not lost, but like a cancer, the longer we wait to remove tumer, the more damage it will cause and the less likely we are to survive in any form of what we have been. Considering the birth-right we we're given, it is unbelievable what a mess we have made of things.

Ron Paul tells the truth and it hurts, it is frightening. Folks say, isn't there another alternative? There are a lot of alternatives, but the printing money one has worked yet, and I see no reason to expect it to this time.

Too big to fail? Soviet Union was pretty big, but the world and the various states survived and will continue to do so. We are so soft, will we be able to survive without McMansions, Mega-SUV's, and $4 coffees? I doubt it. And since most of my Generation will be taking debit into retirement and all be trying to live off whatever is left of Socialist Security and cashing out their 401k's at the same time, just what is the end game?

Four Reasons We Can't Call It a Recession - Yet

We've been here before, only this time we think we can print our way out of it. Has that ever worked before? Why will it work this time. I guess it really was Voodoo Economics. It will certainly be a curse on the future generations.

Bullish Dollar Rally - Fast Money Recap (8/15/08)

Something has to give eventually. If in the good times, the budget deficit needs a $10.6 E12 cap, how much do you think the recession will require? Think about the Bull in dollars: We just bailed out a bottomless pit (GSE's), Housing is in a death-spiral, not a bottom (use the part of the brain that still can do critical thinking, not the constant part) and the whole banking system is being propped up by playing cards. The dollar is on life support and people are bullish? Based on what? The rest of the world knows our debt will never be paid unless they lend us the money to pay them. I think they're on to us...

T. Boone Pickens Holdings Down Nearly 20% This Quarter

Be neither bear nor bull, but try to figure out the real picture. The commodities bubble was a result of the lack of any other plausible investment venue, and too much fiat cash floating around looking for someplace to make money,putting at risk the entire global financial infrastructure. Feels good to know that speculating in food commodities caused many more thousands to starve to death, doesn't it? As long as you make some money to live a more oppulent lifestyle, nothing else really matters, right?

Laughing at Alan Greenspan

It all goes back tothe talk of how AG would handle a kontradieff winter and thinking that the problem was just not printing enough money. The problem is mis-allocation of resources. Unfetterred capitalism only works that way because it is a function of human nature. The lusts of the flesh outweigh common sense every time. We've all been a bunch of spoiled teenagers buying toys on our rich Uncle Sam's credit card, and now the loans are being pulled in. That sound outside by your Lexus tonight is the repo man...

Jumbo Mortgage Risk Will Topple the Teetering GSEs

Sorry Rick, but 'Left Coast' says you got skin in the game in Jumbo-land so you have a very strong bias here. Jumbo's require the ponzi scheme to keep going as not enough people make enough money to buy them all. Sad but mostly true--this was Feb, now it's July and they were both bailed out. Care to temper your opinion in hindsight?