Freefalling

Five Reasons the Market Could Crash This Fall

Actually, these are just clarifications and a summary of much of what is already common knowledge. There are a number of issues which still haven't been mentioned: 3T in bad commercial property loans. Bankrupt CA and other states (that's not fixed yet). Alt-A mortgages being recast to ~500B. Millions underwater, delayed foreclorsures. Do you argue the unemployment figures? Inflation is not low--real buying power is diminished, although some deflationary demand-destruction effects are visible. Currency destruction--not demand-pull inflation. Quantitative easing is not the same as economic recovery. We've had stock collapses in 1987, 1989, 1990, 1993, 1997. 2000, 2003, 2007-2008-2009. There is no way the average investor has the information to protect himself from the crashes. What makes you think YOU know there WON'T be one now? Jim Cramer tell you? Brilliant!


On Aug 04 10:49 PM FB5000 wrote:

> Remarkably wrongheaded. I actually feel sorry for you.
>
> Not a single economic argument. More data came out today - also good.
> We are in recovery. Economy is growing. Q3 will see +2% to 4%. Q4
> will also be good. Here's a tip. Pay attention to back to school.
> As goes BTS - so (mostly) goes Q4 retail. It will be a nice tell.
> Earnings are growing. Inflation is low. Earnings drive the market
> and you are going to see very nice sequential growth in Q3 and Q4.
> In 2010 the Q on Q compares will be good.
>
> That is what is driving the rally. We will see some pullbacks but
> we are heading higher. Recovery will be "v" shaped. the issue now
> is will it be "V" or "v'
>
> That's all.
>
>

Uncle Ben Signals the End Game

Low interest = weak dollar, except in times of severe crisis, where panic = buy dollars as safe haven, like getting under a tree in an electric storm or taking a boat out to see so it won't get crushed when a hurricane comes ashore...


On Dec 01 09:59 PM svosavvy wrote:

> low interest=strong the dollar which is the inverse of gold

Uncle Ben Signals the End Game

My take is that the bear-market rally folks know when to walk away, and know when to run. Since all parameters are a function of expectations (eg. "Good news, I thought you would lose both legs, but we only had to amputate one.") and not of absolute merit, we only need to lower expectations more and then we can have another rally. Say "experts predict weekly first-time UE at 650,000." Then number like 575,000 comes in and it can be called good news and Citi goes on a tear (big climb, not more crying).

This Isn't a Bottom, It's a Disturbance in The Force

The was just the precursor. We're not even in the first inning--this is spring training. Wait until the big Alt A loans reset next year and for the next three more, or the trillions in hedge fund collapeses. We haven't started to unwind the commercial real-estate bubble. Do you think the world will ever fall for our Ponzi schemes again and we have not industry left. I don't even know if I want to be around in 2012.

America's Fiscal Crisis: Tough Decisions Needed Now

Indeed, perhaps all is not lost, but like a cancer, the longer we wait to remove tumer, the more damage it will cause and the less likely we are to survive in any form of what we have been. Considering the birth-right we we're given, it is unbelievable what a mess we have made of things.

Ron Paul tells the truth and it hurts, it is frightening. Folks say, isn't there another alternative? There are a lot of alternatives, but the printing money one has worked yet, and I see no reason to expect it to this time.

Too big to fail? Soviet Union was pretty big, but the world and the various states survived and will continue to do so. We are so soft, will we be able to survive without McMansions, Mega-SUV's, and $4 coffees? I doubt it. And since most of my Generation will be taking debit into retirement and all be trying to live off whatever is left of Socialist Security and cashing out their 401k's at the same time, just what is the end game?