Up Yours SP500

Parsing the Latest Data from S&P / Case-Shiller

I agree wholeheartedly. To put into a more down to earth perspective, I tried to refi a home mortgage recently (Dec.1, 2009 to be specific). The home appraisal came out to about the same amount as my current mortgage (so at least it is not underwater). However, in order to refi, banks are requesting 20% down, so the question I ask is "Is it worth it to throw good money away?" I would have to put down another 20% to lock in a lower rate, and logically, real estate is not that hot where another 20% should be flushed away. I am better off keeping my current mortgage, and hoping rates don't increase as fast as I think they will. Now, just imagine this scenario throughout the U.S. and a slightly different one where the property appraises for less than the current mortgage. If you are locked into a 5/1 ARM, you are screwed, since interest rates have no where to go but up in the upcoming years. Banks are NOT refinancing loans unless more money is put down for the property, so where are they making all their money......account fees, corporate investments, and overseas. Scary isn't it?

Banks get the bailout at 0% interest and homeowners have to put down another 20% to refi....incredible.


On Dec 29 07:50 PM logicalthought wrote:

> This last real estate cycle was a phenomenally long one. While a
> traditional up-cycle might have lasted five-to-seven years, this
> one started in early 1993 and didn't peak in much of the country
> until 2007, making it at least twice as long as is typical. I think
> that says a lot about how long it will take before prices can start
> moving up again (even if they're currently at-- or within 10% of--
> a bottom now). This is the primary reason for my overall bearishness
> about stocks; to put it simply, without an increase in housing prices,
> people won't have money to "buy stuff", and I think that increase
> is many years away.

Amazon Is Overhyped and Overpriced

You logic completely sucks. There is a reason why Wal-Mart has taken notice of Amazon online and has aggressively moved to counter Amazon's influence. They have not done that with other online companies because most of them have peaked, Amazon can continue to add to its product selection and grow exponentially from here. Please let me know what investment firm you work for so I can send you $100K to flush down the toilet, because that is what I would be doing. What an idiot.

Key Tronic: When Bad News Is Already Baked In

This article was useless, I want my 2 minutes back.

Paulson's Future Performance: No Guarantees

Eddie Lampert....what a tool....I can't believe Sears/KMart is still in business, the guy is trying to suck money out of this company at the expense of shareholders and employees. Have you seen the stores, the employees, the merchandise selection? The only good thing from Sears holdings is the real estate. Paulson is doing the same thing, sucking money in from current sheep......and good for him, ride the wave and bring in as much cash as you can, charge your 1-2% fee, and don't even worry about earnings performance, you have your cake and icing (1-2% of several hunderd million is pretty good to me), so I applaud his ability to herd them in.

Unemployment Falls to 10%, But Obscures Negative Trends

Agree 100%. The second dip in this recession starts in January and here's how it happens:

1. Retail sales are dismal, leading to more bankruptcies in retail.
2. More jobs are lost as a result.
3. Commercial real estate shopping centers can't make payments on their loans since businesses are closing.
4. A second stimulus will be needed, leading to further decline in the dollar. China, India, Russia, and everyone else knows this, the U.S. just seems to be clueless.
5. Gold reaches new highs since widespread panic sets in the marketplace and there is no where to place your money to give a decent ROI.


On Dec 06 04:40 PM Tomcat101 wrote:

> I just got back from a southern Virginia mall and Wal-Mart.
>
> Lots of shoppers in Belk, Aeropostle, PacSun, Gamestop, and Rack
> Room Shoes. Aeropostle was particularly busy. I'm thinking about
> buying some (ARO) on the recent big dip it's had. You hear lots
> of gloom and doom about all the billions and billions of devastated,
> crushed, poor, unemployed teens in America- I say that's B.S. The
> teens were buying freely today. I don't know if they are working
> or just milking mom and dad for the money or selling crack, but they
> have money and they are shopping at ARO and PSUN.
>
> Wal-Mart was busy, but not overly crowded for a Sunday. Not sure
> what to make of that.

Goldman's Hubris

The financial illiteracy of the U.S. individual is solely to blame for the whole mess we are in. Goldman, like any other smart firm, is just taking advantage of stupidity in the marketplace. How much Wall Street regulation talk has there been in the news compared to talk about Afghanistan, Jobs, Sarah Palin, etc etc? NONE! Obama is trying to fight for healthcare at this moment while given only a sternly worded speech to Wall Street regarding eventual regulation....with nothing happening as of yet! The world remains clueless as to what happens on Wall Street and how that will ultimately bring down the country. Mark my words, the U.S. is going to get a rude financial awakening and that is why the HUGE bonuses are being doled out now.

The Death of the U.S. Consumer

The American way is the blame it on someone else, go figure. We lost our jobs, blame the government. We lost our savings, blame Wall Street. We lost our house, blame the mortgage brokers who gave me a shady loan. We can't compete with India and China who are taking away our jobs (The interesting fact about that is the wealthy there still send there kids to colleges HERE in the U.S., go figure). We were too lazy, stupid, ignorant, and uneducated to read a book, so we listen to idiots like Sarah Palin to get us through these tough times.

God bless Fox news! The more popular they are, the easier is becomes to make money of the stupid few.


On Nov 26 10:57 AM oligarch_lies wrote:

> The truth is so dark that I'm scared for my children....
>
> I know that goldmanites have their eyes on.....INDIA, the largest
> democracy, where they can go and SUCK everything....(no simple coincidence
> with the Citi's boss and a lot of stakes in ....India).
>
> everything will be there....our jobs, our future....

Black Friday retail sales rose a scant 0.5% to $10.66B according to early readings from ShopperTrak, but online sales outperformed, up 35% from a year ago. First round in the "big game of chicken" between retailers and customer: shoppers.

This is not a game of chicken....if you don't know already, the customer ALWAYS wins. If one company starts to drop prices, others will follow for fear of looking expensive to the customer. Just look at Wal-Mart and Amazon with their book pricing.

The Coming Consequences of Banking Fraud

Mr. Kim, to straighten your points, I would also add the impending collapse of the commercial real estate market, the fact that China is looking to make the U.S. its bitch without firing a single rocket or bullet (and rather through commodity purchases, gold, and buying up U.S. assets including U.S. real estate), and the fact that President Obama has thoroughly missed the opportunity to seriously overhaul the financial system when it was in the gutter in March. His focus now is health care reform, but notice, there is not mention of any financial reforms right now in government aside from the SEC saying they will NOW implement policies to prevent another Madoff scam. So sad. The bankers walk away with their money, we walk away with empty pockets.

Empty Storefronts

Here's another hold in your deep pocket theory on property owners:

online.wsj.com/article...


Hat tip to David Merkel.

Empty Storefronts

Even commercial real estate owners/developers with deep pockets suffer, remember General Growth and Developer's Diversified. Commercial real estate is what is going to trigger the double dip recession.....property owners will not get financing from banks, leading to more foreclosures on properties and thus hurting the banks themselves. The rents of the past will not equal the rents of the future for some time, unless you think we will be operating at 2005-2007 levels for the next couple of years. No company with deep pockets sits on dead investments, that's just good business.

How Goldman Sachs Games the System

Mark, you forgot to emphasize that the only fools that get played are the fools who believe Goldman in the first place.

As a rule of thumb, what ever Goldman recommends, know that they have made their money on it already, they are just looking to get out when the suckers start buying. GS caters to the rich, and when the rest of the country is worrying about their next paycheck, healthcare, or simply keeping food on the table, these guys are scheming as to what political donations will keep their games going, so that they can pillage from the middle class until the well runs dry. That's how it is now and how it will be in the future.

Spitzer was a good AG, its a shame he brought himself down. Cheating on one person is not the same as cheating on several million.

John Hussman: A Tale of Two Data Sets

"This will not be an easy situation to solve with an increasing number of homes now “underwater” relative to their outstanding mortgages, and with job losses continuing (above expectations at 570,000 last week)." Great insight John, but you also forget to mention the upcoming collapse of the commercial real estate market, I would be curious to see what the federal government will do then to save that market....any insight?

WSJ had a great article on commercial real estate:

finance.yahoo.com/real...

Four Reasons We're Headed Even Higher

"We’re even seeing positive moves upward in durable goods, consumer confidence, housing, etc."

What numbers are you looking at, have you checked consumer confidence as of today or even commercial real estate, see below

www.presstv.ir/detail....

Are you even paying attention to the commercial real estate market? Check this

www.gpb.org/news/2009/...

You're full of it, and it shows in that Wall Street Banker smile of yours.

Has President Obama's Mortgage Modification Plan Failed?

You seem to think Obama created this mess. What about the stupid 51% who voted for Bush 8 years in a row, or the stupid greedy people who got us into this mess in the first place? How easily we forget Obama as been on the job only since January! He has done more in 8 months than Bush did in 8 years and if you want to refute that, give me any topic so I can crush your stupid mentality: 2 wars, the economy, taxes for the rich, lack of his understanding about healthcare, Dick Cheney, global relations, etc etc.....take your pick....someone has to clean up after Bush's colossal f up. You are probably one of those idiots shouting at these health care town halls, get a clue.


On Aug 20 05:54 PM Loulun wrote:

> It seems Obama is failing at everything Bail out failure,Cash for
> clunkers failure, Loan modification failure, Healthcare reform Failure,
> Afganastan will be a failure and Iraq will become a diaster. Then
> the stupid 51% will vote for him again in November 2011