Poohbear

Who Is John Galt? We'll Soon Find Out

Anyone who believes Rand's ultra-selfish philosophy (for example, Alan Greenspan) is trash.

Why Is Everybody Selling as Buffett Is Loading Up?

Rokjok777, good point. However, if Buffet thinks the bottom is still ahead, why doesn't he wait further so he can get even better deal, since GS and GE will be even more desperate by that time?

Buffett's Big Bet: The Real Value of the Berkshire Investment in Goldman Sachs

Andrew, excellent analysis. However, I'd like to be less generous about the assumptions.

1. As you say, Jan 2011 110 call option for GS shows the implied volatility is 44%, however, we can imagine the volatility of GS stock will drop soon, maybe a implied volatility of about 30% is more appropriate for valuing these warrants.

2. You value the future dividend with 10% discount rate, but maybe we need a much higher discount rate like 15% considering the current high-risk status of financial markets. What's the yield of GS corporate bond? The discount rate should be higher than the bond yield.

3. Instead of assuming GS will buy back the shares in five years, why not simply using the preferred shares valuation formula P = D/R, since D is always fixed at 10% ?

Hedge Fund Manager's Notebook: Time to Buy Chinese Stocks, & Lehman's True Value

3) 500 million Chinese going back to work today could trigger a rally in the Chinese market.

I don't see the relationship between Chinese people going to work and its stock market performance. Especially considering John mistakenly assume Chinese people are on holidays during Olympics. This is not true, they still need going to work during the last three weeks!

Shanghai's Own Stock Market Rules

JudeJin
You have much thorough understanding about Chinese stock market than Mr. Roxburgh has.
In my opinion the biggest risk factor of Chinese economy is the very overvalued housing market. It could have effect on both domestic and global economy, for example, it could cause a serious bear market for commodities.

Shanghai's Own Stock Market Rules

Many westerners have too shallow understanding of China. The believers of “Shanghai is not China” obviously still live in 100 years ago when Shanghai was an international colony. How can Shanghai Stock Exchange "set its own rule" when majority of both listed companies and buying powers are from other parts of China outside of Shanghai?

Yes, Financial Companies Can Be Analyzed

Tom, you need to check the facts. WFC bottom in October of 1990, not in 1991.