Poohbear's Comments RSS Syndication from SeekingAlpha.com http://seekingalpha.comuser/233771/comments http://seekingalpha.com/article/101917-who-is-john-galt-we-ll-soon-find-out?source=feed#comment-291132 291132 Sun, 26 Oct 2008 21:36:22 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/98597-why-is-everybody-selling-as-buffett-is-loading-up?source=feed#comment-274472 274472 Mon, 06 Oct 2008 05:30:53 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/97683-buffett-s-big-bet-the-real-value-of-the-berkshire-investment-in-goldman-sachs?source=feed#comment-267535 267535
1. As you say, Jan 2011 110 call option for GS shows the implied volatility is 44%, however, we can imagine the volatility of GS stock will drop soon, maybe a implied volatility of about 30% is more appropriate for valuing these warrants.

2. You value the future dividend with 10% discount rate, but maybe we need a much higher discount rate like 15% considering the current high-risk status of financial markets. What's the yield of GS corporate bond? The discount rate should be higher than the bond yield.

3. Instead of assuming GS will buy back the shares in five years, why not simply using the preferred shares valuation formula P = D/R, since D is always fixed at 10% ? ]]> Sun, 28 Sep 2008 12:25:41 -0400
1. As you say, Jan 2011 110 call option for GS shows the implied volatility is 44%, however, we can imagine the volatility of GS stock will drop soon, maybe a implied volatility of about 30% is more appropriate for valuing these warrants.

2. You value the future dividend with 10% discount rate, but maybe we need a much higher discount rate like 15% considering the current high-risk status of financial markets. What's the yield of GS corporate bond? The discount rate should be higher than the bond yield.

3. Instead of assuming GS will buy back the shares in five years, why not simply using the preferred shares valuation formula P = D/R, since D is always fixed at 10% ? ]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/92622-hedge-fund-manager-s-notebook-time-to-buy-chinese-stocks-lehman-s-true-value?source=feed#comment-239034 239034
I don't see the relationship between Chinese people going to work and its stock market performance. Especially considering John mistakenly assume Chinese people are on holidays during Olympics. This is not true, they still need going to work during the last three weeks!]]> Tue, 26 Aug 2008 03:52:13 -0400
I don't see the relationship between Chinese people going to work and its stock market performance. Especially considering John mistakenly assume Chinese people are on holidays during Olympics. This is not true, they still need going to work during the last three weeks!]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/92369-shanghai-s-own-stock-market-rules?source=feed#comment-238626 238626 You have much thorough understanding about Chinese stock market than Mr. Roxburgh has.
In my opinion the biggest risk factor of Chinese economy is the very overvalued housing market. It could have effect on both domestic and global economy, for example, it could cause a serious bear market for commodities. ]]> Mon, 25 Aug 2008 13:27:58 -0400 You have much thorough understanding about Chinese stock market than Mr. Roxburgh has.
In my opinion the biggest risk factor of Chinese economy is the very overvalued housing market. It could have effect on both domestic and global economy, for example, it could cause a serious bear market for commodities. ]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/92369-shanghai-s-own-stock-market-rules?source=feed#comment-237910 237910 Sun, 24 Aug 2008 17:02:12 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/87473-yes-financial-companies-can-be-analyzed?source=feed#comment-216858 216858 Mon, 28 Jul 2008 17:53:20 -0400