Alex Sebastian

Citigroup: The End Draws Near

Not sure where this bout of insecurity came from. IMO Citi is too big to fail. I can't see them being bought by anyone else...

I really can't see why the uptick rule can't be reinstated. That would really help the situation. Also, CDS swaps aren't trading nearly as high as other large financial institutions' were before they folded. As of yesterday, they were trading at 360 basis points, compared to over 3000 for the other doomed banks. I think Citi may be a buy here, but only with true MAD Money.

Lehman: Delevering Risk High, and Growing

Looks as if the rally in financials is over today. The market sang the familiar tune of financials leading the whole market downwards. Not even a $3.5 drop in oil could keep this market afloat...

Is the U.S. Banking System Safe?

The recent spike in financial stock after earnings is similar to all the previous spikes, except of a greater magnitude. Everyone thinks "oh wow they really threw in the kitchen sink this quarter" in relation to the banks' writedowns, and then as things continue to grow worse, everyone realizes the banks are going to have to take bigger and bigger writedowns and the whole sector gets s***kicked for the rest of the quarter. Buy some September or October puts, that's my advice.

Rant Anniversary - Cramer's Mad Money (8/1/08)

I am not nearly convinced that the Fed cutting when Cramer wanted it would have done anything. Refinancing a mortgage involves a substantial upfront fee. How do these owners of NINJA loans afford that fee? They had no assets to pay for that financing. And think of where the USD would be. Cramer would have potentially stuck his finger in one of the holes in the dyke, but I wonder how the US economy would be reacting to $5 a gallon oil..?

I used to listen to Cramer, now for the most part I feel he is a rambling idiot. I definitely did not like his bottom call last week...

Bottoming Stocks - Cramer's Stop Trading! (7/31/08)

I wrote in my blog about why I think Cramer is wrong. Just because an investor disclosed a stake, it doesn't mean they "jumped in". They probably have been acquiring this stake for a while and are looking to build positive sentiment by releasing the information now. I am still bearish.