Alex Sebastian

Options Trader: 9/11 Redux

Anyone have any opinions on why Merrill is getting shitk*cked so badly? I mean I have puts so I'm happy, but I'm still a little confused why it has lost around $10 in 3 days...?

How Merrill Lynch Moved Its 'Microwave Ovens'

Really not surprised by this one at all. I am looking to start a career in equity research but do not want to work for a broker or a bank due to the conflicts of interest inherent in a position with such an organization. Therefore I am limited to applying to independent research firms, which is preventing me from getting a job as quickly as would be possible otherwise. Oh well, things sure could be a lot worse...

What surprises me is that anyone thinks that a lawsuit will actually change Merrill or anyone else's behavior. Yeah a few mil will be doled out, but nothing will change...

Lehman: Delevering Risk High, and Growing

Looks as if the rally in financials is over today. The market sang the familiar tune of financials leading the whole market downwards. Not even a $3.5 drop in oil could keep this market afloat...

Is the U.S. Banking System Safe?

The recent spike in financial stock after earnings is similar to all the previous spikes, except of a greater magnitude. Everyone thinks "oh wow they really threw in the kitchen sink this quarter" in relation to the banks' writedowns, and then as things continue to grow worse, everyone realizes the banks are going to have to take bigger and bigger writedowns and the whole sector gets s***kicked for the rest of the quarter. Buy some September or October puts, that's my advice.

Rant Anniversary - Cramer's Mad Money (8/1/08)

I am not nearly convinced that the Fed cutting when Cramer wanted it would have done anything. Refinancing a mortgage involves a substantial upfront fee. How do these owners of NINJA loans afford that fee? They had no assets to pay for that financing. And think of where the USD would be. Cramer would have potentially stuck his finger in one of the holes in the dyke, but I wonder how the US economy would be reacting to $5 a gallon oil..?

I used to listen to Cramer, now for the most part I feel he is a rambling idiot. I definitely did not like his bottom call last week...

Bottoming Stocks - Cramer's Stop Trading! (7/31/08)

I wrote in my blog about why I think Cramer is wrong. Just because an investor disclosed a stake, it doesn't mean they "jumped in". They probably have been acquiring this stake for a while and are looking to build positive sentiment by releasing the information now. I am still bearish.