Alex Sebastian

Cramer: Dow Could Drop Another 14%, Oil's Going to $50

Hmm, well that's only 279 points off now... Cramer called bottom when July 15, when the Dow touched 10,500. Then he tried to limit his call to the financial stocks. Well XLF has recently dropped below its July 15th low. So he's wrong again. I would like it more if he said, "Look I called bottom here, I was wrong, here's where I see the next bottom". There's nothing wrong with being wrong, just admit to it...

This time I believe him a little more though, we HAVE to be getting close. How long can the VIX stay above 50? I actually see the Dow above 9,000 this time next year. I mean the stockmarket is down 40% on a fears of a recession. Isn't the cost of a recession already priced in? 40% is A LOT. Are companies earnings going to be beat worse than that? I doubt it. That's global depression-like numbers. I am going long this tomorrow at close if we see another big dive..

If MS makes it to the 14th, there is going to be one hell of a short squeeze (that's when the deal closes for their Japanese financing)...

Forget $100 a Barrel - Oil Will Plummet to $30

I didn't take the time to read through all the comments on this page so forgive me if I am repeating some of the points already made by other readers.

After reading this piece I honestly think Mr. Schwartz should be removed from the Seeking Alpha list of authors. This piece was so poorly researched and thought out that it is an insult to the entire site, and it's readers. I am only going to point out the most glaring flaw in Mr. Schwartz' argument.

New oil is NOT plentiful. If you had any knowledge of the off-shore rig market, you would know that many of the rigs are being commissioned by big oil companies for EXPLORATION purposes, not production. This is a direct result of high oil prices (big oil is looking in places where it is very expensive to extract oil). Beyond this, while there have been some large new fields discovered, but they lie in harsh environments which result in very technically challenging drilling conditions. As a result oil is prohibitively expensive to extract from these areas. Many of these fields come online only with oil over $100 per barrel. With oil at $30 a barrel, there is almost no new oil coming into the market. With the megafields in significant decline, there will be a net loss in oil production, resulting in a higher oil price.

No matter how you cut it, $30 oil is an impossibility which will never be realized. I feel sorry for the investors in your fund if that piece is what you guys consider "due diligence".

My advice: stick to options trading. You seem to be excellent at that.