Alex Sebastian

Three Financial Stocks Worth Holding

I would be interested to know over what period you calculated the historical average returns for these banks. In the case of JPMorgan, a five year period was used. To earn such returns in a period characterized by such speculative excess, is not, as we have seen, necessarily an indication of good management.

Overall I think that the financial stocks are still too risky. When Lehman collapsed, the valuation of its senior debt implied a $110B hole in its balance sheet. Also note that when Wachovia was forced to actually value its assets by Wells, it took a $28B hit. The situations at Freddie and Fannie were similar. What is hiding on the books of these institutions? I for one don't want to be a shareholder when we find out.

Is the U.S. Banking System Safe?

The recent spike in financial stock after earnings is similar to all the previous spikes, except of a greater magnitude. Everyone thinks "oh wow they really threw in the kitchen sink this quarter" in relation to the banks' writedowns, and then as things continue to grow worse, everyone realizes the banks are going to have to take bigger and bigger writedowns and the whole sector gets s***kicked for the rest of the quarter. Buy some September or October puts, that's my advice.