otbricki

Geithner's Tax Troubles Give Obama a Chance to Get It Right

Warren Buffet would not work. Neither would Ron Paul. They are celebrities and politicians not macro economics wizards. However the idea of reducing the size of government is one that is never really wrong. Government doesn't produce, at best it merely redistributes. At worst it takes from the poor and fritters it away, and at the same time stifles growth.

The thing about cutting taxes is that you are looking at the wrong side of the equation. Your taxes are exactly equal to what government spends. Not one nickel more or less. Some times those taxes are deferred by borrowing or buried in inflation. The only way to really reduce them is to reduce the size of government. This is something that the Republicans have totally failed at with their incredibly stupid supply side mantra.

There is no such thing as good government. There is only benign government or bad government.

Obama Doubles Down

The "me" generation has been paying 15% or so of its earnings into Social Security and Medicare for more or less 30 years. Why shouldn't it expect something in return?

It sounds to me like it is the X and Y generations that are welshing on their obligations here.

First Call of a Double-Dip Recession: Setting Up a Market Bottom?

The Pharm industry is not what I would use for a safe haven. They are having a tough time coming up with drugs that offer real improvements over existing meds, and as soon as Obama comes into office he is going to put an end to the B.S. where Americans pay 5x more for the same meds than anyone else in the world.

ARM resets are a worry but there is time to find a solution. One of the solutions is to keep interest rates low so they reset lower than they were issued. We are pretty close to that now. But I would not buy any bank stocks because this means banks are not going to make any money for a while.

Here is a good article on the topic from Seeking Alpha:

seekingalpha.com/artic...

Nine Ways to Profit in 2009

One thing I don't think will happen is that 2008's trades will work in 2009.

I think User 330190 has the right idea.

Pengrowth Energy, Gold Miners ETF: Value in Commodities

Gold is too high now IMHO. So as it drops the miners will have to come down even more.

Other commodities though are on my short list, although the historical pattern has been that stocks lead a recovery while commodities track economic recovery.

So we might see equities go up first.

Relatively Low Unemployment Is No Cause for Optimism

I don't think this analogy holds up given the changes in the economy that have occurred in the last 80 years.

Companies cut jobs far more rapidly than they used to because in a service economy employee costs are a far larger part of their costs. In addition there is not the same social contract between employee and employer that used to exist 80 years ago. Also we have stuff like unemployment insurance now.

The Weight of Money in 2009

1. Housing. If housing needs to drop another 15% why will that take 2 years? It dropped 18% this year. Yes there is an inventory backlog, and many boomers will need to downsize. But there is also population growth and no construction. You need to look at both supply and demand. As soon as down payment terms loosen (probably when prices stabilize) the low mortgage rates and demand will soak up the inventory right quicklike.

2. If you are a long term investor you really don't need to make money in 2009. What you have to do is preserve capital get into position to take advantage of the huge move back into equities that will come when the economy turns.

Randgold Resources: In Gold We Trust

This reads a lot more like an advertisement than an article.

3 Gold Miners That Stand to Sparkle from Growing Demand

Another gold pumper.

Here is a clue. The money being pumped into the banks by the treasury is going right into a rathole of deflation and deleveraging. The Bank of Japan did the same thing in the '80s and the result was not rampant inflation at all.

Don't Miss the Coming Gold Bull

Monetary supply has been pumped up by the Fed however that is being countered by massive deleveraging and deflation. Banks are just taking the money and using it to build reserves. The velocity of what the Fed is printing is zero or so close to it that is irrelevant. Not to mention that a lot of it is purchase of undervalued assets that is not inflationary. Socialist as all hell, but not inflationary.

With continued foreclosures, defaults, unemployment and whatnot in the works for the next year at least don't count on banks doing anything but sucking up the output of the printing presses for a good while.

Obama can spend a trillion on stimulus and it won't matter. Another trillion on the national debt won't change anything and won't lead to hyperinflation. The federal debt problem is a problem measured in the 10's of trillions.

Zero interest rates, quantitative easing and so on - we have seen it before in Japan. It led to a stagnant economy, but nothing like hyperinflation at all.

Yes you can invest in gold if you want, but don't count on big returns. Or even keeping up with inflation. Gold is pretty well priced compared with other hard assets right now. Buying now is not buying low.

Gold Prices Could Double...or More than Double

Hard Assets Investor = Pump Gold As Much As Possible.

Welcome to Parity

Japan had no inflation despite its zero interest rates. It is very hard to say what is going to happen here.

Gold Poised to Move Higher

I don't know when the concept of gold as money will totally die out. But it WILL happen. It is totally archaic and not based on anything but habit and tradition.

On Dec 28 04:04 PM Roger Knights wrote:

> "Sooner or later people are going to realize that value of gold is psychological only"...

Gold Poised to Move Higher

Sorry to disappoint you but my mortgage is paid off. My youngest son just finished college too. Without any student loans.

Regardless of who I voted for, if we have hyperinflation it will be due to the massive debt accumulated due to the Republican concept of 'supply side economics' i.e. cut taxes but spend all you want on foreign military adventures that do nothing to shore up the US economy.

As far as central banks selling gold didn't we just see a lot of that last year? I thought so. Central banks buy and sell gold for political reasons. They don't have investment goals.

On Dec 28 02:12 PM Dollar Bull Sh** wrote:

> gold is a horrible investment....thats why central banks arent selling
> it....its idiots like otbricki that i guarantee a. bought his house
> at the peak and is now in foreclosure b. will be in line receiving
> soup from the government and c. probably voted for mr. hyperinflation
> obama ...good luck guy

Gold Poised to Move Higher

Paper money can also be composted and used to grow food or burned to provide energy.

On Dec 28 02:09 PM ejhickey wrote:

> You could say the same thing about paper money. well maybe our paper
> money does have some other uses- wallpaper, insulation and toilet
> paper substitute