Timothy Stolz's Comments RSS Syndication from SeekingAlpha.com http://seekingalpha.comuser/233866/comments http://seekingalpha.com/article/104285-a-40-bottom-in-oil?source=feed#comment-299410 299410 My concern is that the opposite is likely to occur in the near term. The post above by JohnniePhenom suggests that the inflationary outcome of the influx of a hugh amount of new dollars into the worlds financial system could devalue the dollar causing the price of crude to rise. I think Johnnie is right.
And, another concern of mine comes from the words of Joe Biden...."He will be tested in his first six months" comment will likely ring true. I do not believe the Middle East is at all that stable and the Iran/Israel nuclear issue may very well come to a "head" early in Obama's Presidency. Just a hunch and I hope that I am wrong.
As wdhalgren said in his post....(this)(meaning oil) "could be the long term investment of the millenium."
I think oil will settle in the range of $62 - $72 until the market is "stressed" one way or the other.]]> Thu, 06 Nov 2008 11:08:55 -0500 My concern is that the opposite is likely to occur in the near term. The post above by JohnniePhenom suggests that the inflationary outcome of the influx of a hugh amount of new dollars into the worlds financial system could devalue the dollar causing the price of crude to rise. I think Johnnie is right.
And, another concern of mine comes from the words of Joe Biden...."He will be tested in his first six months" comment will likely ring true. I do not believe the Middle East is at all that stable and the Iran/Israel nuclear issue may very well come to a "head" early in Obama's Presidency. Just a hunch and I hope that I am wrong.
As wdhalgren said in his post....(this)(meaning oil) "could be the long term investment of the millenium."
I think oil will settle in the range of $62 - $72 until the market is "stressed" one way or the other.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/103424-u-s-oil-companies-paid-collected-more-in-taxes-than-they-made-in-profits-in-2006?source=feed#comment-296812 296812 I understand WHAT it is you are saying, I am just not certain as to the "definition" of the $90.445 number of what was reported in Table B5.
Can you or Mark Perry elaborate?]]> Sun, 02 Nov 2008 23:39:04 -0500 I understand WHAT it is you are saying, I am just not certain as to the "definition" of the $90.445 number of what was reported in Table B5.
Can you or Mark Perry elaborate?]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/103424-u-s-oil-companies-paid-collected-more-in-taxes-than-they-made-in-profits-in-2006?source=feed#comment-296734 296734 I doubt this will shut him up....but it will make me feel better!]]> Sun, 02 Nov 2008 21:08:17 -0500 I doubt this will shut him up....but it will make me feel better!]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/101888-traffic-volume-continues-to-fall-in-august-what-will-happen-in-the-coming-months?source=feed#comment-291038 291038 There will be a certain percentage of drivers who have found alternative or public transportation to be of a benefit and they will no longer be counted in driving miles. Others will abandon their fuel saving "experiments in saving gas" and go back to their heavy footed driving habits. Those drivers that bought into the idea of $147 per barrel oil as the new world order now have nice new fuel efficient cars to drive which with cheaper gas prices will take even longer to pay for themselves.
The real question shall be "At what point will the volume of miles driven by new drivers cross the apex of miles saved by all of the methods so attributed to milage savings?" The answer to that question then becomes the level where the graph above begins to go up. The reduced milage from demand destruction may still be ongoing, as will the reduction from public transportation and other like methods; but the graph goes up as does the gross number of miles driven.
At any rate, I think we can count on the American consumer, or at least a sufficient number of them, to be predictable and return to their wasteful driving habits.

]]> Sun, 26 Oct 2008 19:12:55 -0400 There will be a certain percentage of drivers who have found alternative or public transportation to be of a benefit and they will no longer be counted in driving miles. Others will abandon their fuel saving "experiments in saving gas" and go back to their heavy footed driving habits. Those drivers that bought into the idea of $147 per barrel oil as the new world order now have nice new fuel efficient cars to drive which with cheaper gas prices will take even longer to pay for themselves.
The real question shall be "At what point will the volume of miles driven by new drivers cross the apex of miles saved by all of the methods so attributed to milage savings?" The answer to that question then becomes the level where the graph above begins to go up. The reduced milage from demand destruction may still be ongoing, as will the reduction from public transportation and other like methods; but the graph goes up as does the gross number of miles driven.
At any rate, I think we can count on the American consumer, or at least a sufficient number of them, to be predictable and return to their wasteful driving habits.

]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/101787-opec-s-cuts-can-t-fight-global-recession-headwinds?source=feed#comment-290258 290258 Now OPEC comes into the equation with a "stated" and who knows if "real" factor decreasing the supply by 1.5 mbd, that likely will only offset the equation by a portion of the decreasing demand.
At some point in time the OPEC decrease and the steady augmentation of the demand destruction component towards neutral or zero, should occur.
As measured in the beginning of OPEC's involvment in our equation, they really had no impact on the price of oil, cheating or not cheating. As the reduced demand component moves closer to neutral, in theory, OPEC begins to have an influence on the price of oil. In other words, "until the slack is drawn up in the rope, you can't make a noose." That slack is the reduced demand component of the oil price equation too large for OPEC to alter by their recent stated reduction. Maybe later when the demand catches back up with the supply they will have more of an ability to control prices.]]> Sat, 25 Oct 2008 11:33:38 -0400 Now OPEC comes into the equation with a "stated" and who knows if "real" factor decreasing the supply by 1.5 mbd, that likely will only offset the equation by a portion of the decreasing demand.
At some point in time the OPEC decrease and the steady augmentation of the demand destruction component towards neutral or zero, should occur.
As measured in the beginning of OPEC's involvment in our equation, they really had no impact on the price of oil, cheating or not cheating. As the reduced demand component moves closer to neutral, in theory, OPEC begins to have an influence on the price of oil. In other words, "until the slack is drawn up in the rope, you can't make a noose." That slack is the reduced demand component of the oil price equation too large for OPEC to alter by their recent stated reduction. Maybe later when the demand catches back up with the supply they will have more of an ability to control prices.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/101463-opec-to-cut-production-at-friday-meeting-but-will-prices-react?source=feed#comment-289788 289788 Fri, 24 Oct 2008 14:31:22 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/101463-opec-to-cut-production-at-friday-meeting-but-will-prices-react?source=feed#comment-289414 289414 OPEC is likely to form a that floor at about $75 US but it may take a few weeks to work through the excess oil inventory before we see that $75 per barrel.
While we wait for that floor price to firm, there are a lot of oil and gas issues "on sale" and today, Friday the 24th of October, may bode well for the short traders and bargain hunters in this sector.
]]> Fri, 24 Oct 2008 08:29:33 -0400 OPEC is likely to form a that floor at about $75 US but it may take a few weeks to work through the excess oil inventory before we see that $75 per barrel.
While we wait for that floor price to firm, there are a lot of oil and gas issues "on sale" and today, Friday the 24th of October, may bode well for the short traders and bargain hunters in this sector.
]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/101180-oil-analysts-forecasting-average-1-for-4-holds?source=feed#comment-288552 288552 The market seems to place a lot of "weight" upon those every Wednesday numbers, but I wonder how accurate or even truthful that report may be?
Does anybody really know?]]> Thu, 23 Oct 2008 09:26:07 -0400 The market seems to place a lot of "weight" upon those every Wednesday numbers, but I wonder how accurate or even truthful that report may be?
Does anybody really know?]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/100909-will-opec-cut-production-to-prevent-producer-deficits?source=feed#comment-288264 288264 Money, and quite a bit of it, is on the table this time around, and I believe the focus will be greed. The taste of "$147" per barrel oil was simply too good of a flavor not to try out the other flavors, like "$100" or "$85" or the soon to be favorite flavor of the western world at "$74.95."
OPEC is going to want to make a unified base price that is a measurement by which all of the worlds oil is priced. They have the oil....they have the power to set the price. They also have the power to enforce their own rules.
We shall see what Fridays OPEC meeting brings.]]> Wed, 22 Oct 2008 20:21:08 -0400 Money, and quite a bit of it, is on the table this time around, and I believe the focus will be greed. The taste of "$147" per barrel oil was simply too good of a flavor not to try out the other flavors, like "$100" or "$85" or the soon to be favorite flavor of the western world at "$74.95."
OPEC is going to want to make a unified base price that is a measurement by which all of the worlds oil is priced. They have the oil....they have the power to set the price. They also have the power to enforce their own rules.
We shall see what Fridays OPEC meeting brings.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/100630-oil-prices-search-for-a-bottom?source=feed#comment-286477 286477 Do you see that "5" as a starting figure for the price of a barrel of oil in our near future or further down the road? How long would you guess that price would last?
Thanks.]]> Mon, 20 Oct 2008 13:34:37 -0400 Do you see that "5" as a starting figure for the price of a barrel of oil in our near future or further down the road? How long would you guess that price would last?
Thanks.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/100458-why-it-is-important-to-start-reinvesting-now?source=feed#comment-285132 285132 Based on their past history, we may assume that they will "say one thing and do another" either way their actions may in fact establish a base of around $75-$90 for a barrel of crude oil.
Shiv....if the market does not get the capitulation of the energy stocks like you wrote, is it possible that this sector is at the bottom now?
]]> Sat, 18 Oct 2008 09:48:52 -0400 Based on their past history, we may assume that they will "say one thing and do another" either way their actions may in fact establish a base of around $75-$90 for a barrel of crude oil.
Shiv....if the market does not get the capitulation of the energy stocks like you wrote, is it possible that this sector is at the bottom now?
]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/99544-the-bottom-s-within-sight-barron-s?source=feed#comment-280411 280411 Sun, 12 Oct 2008 09:26:00 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/99372-unpredictable-markets-heed-your-own-voice?source=feed#comment-279814 279814
Each of the responses above would have been more educational if they contained an example of the same.

I for one, contradicted one of my "trading rules" by going into the oil and gas sector to purchase stock BEFORE the EIA numbers came out last Wednesday. My trading rule is to wait until after those numbers are released to do ANY trading. My hunch that day was that the numbers would show only a modest rise in the inventories, not the dramatic numbers which came out. I found myself selling off the purchases I had made only an hour earlier, now at a loss.

Robert was candid enough to share with us his "learning event" and I complement him for doing so. Now, how about the rest of you?]]> Sat, 11 Oct 2008 11:49:21 -0400
Each of the responses above would have been more educational if they contained an example of the same.

I for one, contradicted one of my "trading rules" by going into the oil and gas sector to purchase stock BEFORE the EIA numbers came out last Wednesday. My trading rule is to wait until after those numbers are released to do ANY trading. My hunch that day was that the numbers would show only a modest rise in the inventories, not the dramatic numbers which came out. I found myself selling off the purchases I had made only an hour earlier, now at a loss.

Robert was candid enough to share with us his "learning event" and I complement him for doing so. Now, how about the rest of you?]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/99279-firesale-in-oil-and-gas-upstream-limited-partnerships?source=feed#comment-278791 278791 Fri, 10 Oct 2008 09:40:40 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/99023-global-financial-crisis-makes-oil-a-great-hedge?source=feed#comment-276615 276615 Wed, 08 Oct 2008 08:16:46 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/98936-these-insiders-are-buying-during-this-selloff?source=feed#comment-276598 276598 Wed, 08 Oct 2008 08:01:55 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/97727-are-we-on-the-verge-of-a-rally?source=feed#comment-269214 269214 Since the economy seems to be heading into what some pundits are calling a "severe recession" if not the early stage of a depression, where would today's stock market downturn likely be charted on your U shaped curve?]]> Mon, 29 Sep 2008 23:16:58 -0400 Since the economy seems to be heading into what some pundits are calling a "severe recession" if not the early stage of a depression, where would today's stock market downturn likely be charted on your U shaped curve?]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/93325-what-happened-to-peak-oil?source=feed#comment-242454 242454 There are just too many people who, as one presidential candidate uses the phrase, "just don't get it" that by virtue of their personal oil consumption habits stand in the way of any near term measurable success. I define "near term" as 20-30 years for the purposes of this discussion.
On the other hand, it seems that an entire generation of young people who are at the age to become politically active "do get it" and are enlightened enough about the potential environmental and economic concerns, to promote the changes necessary to deal with this demon we have named "peak oil."
For those of us caught in the middle of this conflict, our work is to encourage and to offer support and guidance to that younger generation's effort where are abilities and finances provide us an opportunity to do so.
Once we "know what we know" that knowledge brings with it a moral imperative to act.
We need to help the issues of the day move forward and address the present as well as potential future deterioration of our economy and the environment.]]> Sun, 31 Aug 2008 09:16:29 -0400 There are just too many people who, as one presidential candidate uses the phrase, "just don't get it" that by virtue of their personal oil consumption habits stand in the way of any near term measurable success. I define "near term" as 20-30 years for the purposes of this discussion.
On the other hand, it seems that an entire generation of young people who are at the age to become politically active "do get it" and are enlightened enough about the potential environmental and economic concerns, to promote the changes necessary to deal with this demon we have named "peak oil."
For those of us caught in the middle of this conflict, our work is to encourage and to offer support and guidance to that younger generation's effort where are abilities and finances provide us an opportunity to do so.
Once we "know what we know" that knowledge brings with it a moral imperative to act.
We need to help the issues of the day move forward and address the present as well as potential future deterioration of our economy and the environment.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/91846-q4-oil-price-targets?source=feed#comment-236082 236082 I am concerned about the aftermath of the November elections as it might or might not relate to the Iran nuclear issue and the price of oil. We could easily see $125 per barrel change to $250 per barrel overnight. I certainly hope that does not happen.
My best guess is that the above sample represents "as good a guess" as anybody else has right now, so go with it at $125.]]> Thu, 21 Aug 2008 22:09:27 -0400 I am concerned about the aftermath of the November elections as it might or might not relate to the Iran nuclear issue and the price of oil. We could easily see $125 per barrel change to $250 per barrel overnight. I certainly hope that does not happen.
My best guess is that the above sample represents "as good a guess" as anybody else has right now, so go with it at $125.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/91284-will-drilling-offshore-affect-world-oil-prices?source=feed#comment-232675 232675 For example, by the time year 2025 oil products from offshore production platforms reach the market, it is very likely the consumer won't notice any price difference at the pump. Whether supply/demand factors will make that happen or be it via manipulation by the oil producers, the outcome will remain the same. Take your pick as per your politics.]]> Sun, 17 Aug 2008 19:32:24 -0400 For example, by the time year 2025 oil products from offshore production platforms reach the market, it is very likely the consumer won't notice any price difference at the pump. Whether supply/demand factors will make that happen or be it via manipulation by the oil producers, the outcome will remain the same. Take your pick as per your politics.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/91286-gulfport-energy-production-and-revenues-surge?source=feed#comment-232321 232321 Sun, 17 Aug 2008 10:35:07 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/90893-negative-trend-for-oil-exploration-and-production-stocks?source=feed#comment-231652 231652 My interpretation of the "Estimate Revisions" is that they are probably too bearish. The oil & gas sectors seem to be primed for stock price and earnings stabilization with a period of steady growth soon to follow.
The "present time" affords a unique and unusual opportunity to acquire equity positions in very valuable companies. Take advantage of it!]]> Fri, 15 Aug 2008 20:19:47 -0400 My interpretation of the "Estimate Revisions" is that they are probably too bearish. The oil & gas sectors seem to be primed for stock price and earnings stabilization with a period of steady growth soon to follow.
The "present time" affords a unique and unusual opportunity to acquire equity positions in very valuable companies. Take advantage of it!]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/90058-as-oil-slides-will-contrarians-turn-to-refiners?source=feed#comment-226689 226689 SUN) went up by 14.07%, Holly Corp (HOC) by 12.32%, Valero Energy (VLO) by 11.94%, Frontier Oil (FTO) by 12.93% and Alon USA (ALJ) by 5.00% while crude oil went down by -5.70%.
My hunch is that we can rely on the American consumer to soon return to some of their previous wasteful driving habits and keep the demand for refined crude oil products high. That would bode well for this group of stocks, easing the conservation effect that demand destruction was beginning to provide, unfortunate as that may be.
We are likely to see crude oil level off and hold somewhere around $110 a barrel and that support level could hold into early fall, providing the refiners ample time to stockpile crude oil inventories and/or future contracts to meet their needs for some time to come. That would further stabilize this industry past the near future.
I'm going with Chad on this call....that contrarians will turn to oil refiners and I believe that they began to do so about a week ago.]]> Sat, 09 Aug 2008 09:35:15 -0400 SUN) went up by 14.07%, Holly Corp (HOC) by 12.32%, Valero Energy (VLO) by 11.94%, Frontier Oil (FTO) by 12.93% and Alon USA (ALJ) by 5.00% while crude oil went down by -5.70%.
My hunch is that we can rely on the American consumer to soon return to some of their previous wasteful driving habits and keep the demand for refined crude oil products high. That would bode well for this group of stocks, easing the conservation effect that demand destruction was beginning to provide, unfortunate as that may be.
We are likely to see crude oil level off and hold somewhere around $110 a barrel and that support level could hold into early fall, providing the refiners ample time to stockpile crude oil inventories and/or future contracts to meet their needs for some time to come. That would further stabilize this industry past the near future.
I'm going with Chad on this call....that contrarians will turn to oil refiners and I believe that they began to do so about a week ago.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/89937-the-energy-follies?source=feed#comment-226231 226231 It's probably a good thing they do not have any coal!
Is there a reader from Hawaii out there that could shed some light on this discussion?]]> Fri, 08 Aug 2008 13:18:33 -0400 It's probably a good thing they do not have any coal!
Is there a reader from Hawaii out there that could shed some light on this discussion?]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/89937-the-energy-follies?source=feed#comment-226197 226197 What about tidal flow as proposed by ormondsurfer? The US has one heck of a lot of coast lines affected by tidal flows, something we do not have to import! Here again is someone thinking about; how to skin a cat a different way.
And where can I get more information from jjason about the Navajo Nation wanting to build a clean coal power plant but the politics of Richardson and others being against such a project?
I for one am a proponent of oil and natural gas for the short term, while we undertake a real PUSH towards multiple alternative sources towards energy independence.
While each one of us have our own "pet project" or idea we would like to see on the forefront of that effort, do each other a favor; educate one another! I'll tell you about the abundance of natural gas right here in the US, you tell me about your ideas on geothermal and so on. Our ideas combined make the entire effort towards energy independence move forward; then educate. Talk it up to your friends and co-workers and tell them how cool of an idea you read about a clean coal fired power plant, that may or may not be built and what they can do to help.
Let's work together.]]> Fri, 08 Aug 2008 12:53:52 -0400 What about tidal flow as proposed by ormondsurfer? The US has one heck of a lot of coast lines affected by tidal flows, something we do not have to import! Here again is someone thinking about; how to skin a cat a different way.
And where can I get more information from jjason about the Navajo Nation wanting to build a clean coal power plant but the politics of Richardson and others being against such a project?
I for one am a proponent of oil and natural gas for the short term, while we undertake a real PUSH towards multiple alternative sources towards energy independence.
While each one of us have our own "pet project" or idea we would like to see on the forefront of that effort, do each other a favor; educate one another! I'll tell you about the abundance of natural gas right here in the US, you tell me about your ideas on geothermal and so on. Our ideas combined make the entire effort towards energy independence move forward; then educate. Talk it up to your friends and co-workers and tell them how cool of an idea you read about a clean coal fired power plant, that may or may not be built and what they can do to help.
Let's work together.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/89652-crude-oil-how-far-will-it-fall?source=feed#comment-225614 225614 Now, I'm only throwing that out there.....what do you think would happen? $200 a barrel overnight would be my guess.]]> Thu, 07 Aug 2008 21:28:41 -0400 Now, I'm only throwing that out there.....what do you think would happen? $200 a barrel overnight would be my guess.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/89388-the-obama-mccain-energy-charade-nothing-but-empty-ideas?source=feed#comment-224634 224634 McCain's ad campagin is becoming tiresome and is promoting apathy among our younger voters. McCain may have a better energy plan, but if he looses the election in November....then we're stuck with a real mess!]]> Wed, 06 Aug 2008 23:46:41 -0400 McCain's ad campagin is becoming tiresome and is promoting apathy among our younger voters. McCain may have a better energy plan, but if he looses the election in November....then we're stuck with a real mess!]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/89387-why-i-m-anti-a-windfall-profit-tax-on-big-oil?source=feed#comment-224591 224591 I plan to make a few copies and take them to work tomorrow and hand them out. What about the rest of you?
That is how change begins; one mind at a time.]]> Wed, 06 Aug 2008 22:12:02 -0400 I plan to make a few copies and take them to work tomorrow and hand them out. What about the rest of you?
That is how change begins; one mind at a time.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/87568-depression-survival-guide?source=feed#comment-217892 217892 Our monetary system is often maligned, misused and misguided by those who are in command to govern such matters; but it is the system that I choose to back my currency; not a gold coin or a silver nickel.
The global community looks to us for leadership and guidance in world economic matters. That "community" will do everything in their financial power to make sure their investments in our dollar remain sound investments.
This article seems to me to be more appropriate if it were addressed to a third world audience, not here in the USA. Not now and not in the foreseeable future.]]> Tue, 29 Jul 2008 21:02:40 -0400 Our monetary system is often maligned, misused and misguided by those who are in command to govern such matters; but it is the system that I choose to back my currency; not a gold coin or a silver nickel.
The global community looks to us for leadership and guidance in world economic matters. That "community" will do everything in their financial power to make sure their investments in our dollar remain sound investments.
This article seems to me to be more appropriate if it were addressed to a third world audience, not here in the USA. Not now and not in the foreseeable future.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/87379-chesapeake-energy-natural-gas-supply-responds-to-price?source=feed#comment-217012 217012 Just put "one word in front of another" about natural gas and keep talking, blogging and writing. Consumers want to listen to the truth so give it to them straight. Our dependence on foreigh oil has got to come to an end! ]]> Mon, 28 Jul 2008 21:39:47 -0400 Just put "one word in front of another" about natural gas and keep talking, blogging and writing. Consumers want to listen to the truth so give it to them straight. Our dependence on foreigh oil has got to come to an end! ]]>