Timothy Stolz

These Insiders Are Buying During This Selloff

Be sure to add LEI & TEC to the list and of note that LEI had a nice "run up" yesterday.

Are We On the Verge of a Rally?

Shiv,
Since the economy seems to be heading into what some pundits are calling a "severe recession" if not the early stage of a depression, where would today's stock market downturn likely be charted on your U shaped curve?

What Happened to Peak Oil?

It is likely a generation will pass, at least in the US, before a significant amount of renewable energy is available to be harnessed, to offset enough of our oil based consumption to avert "peak oil."
There are just too many people who, as one presidential candidate uses the phrase, "just don't get it" that by virtue of their personal oil consumption habits stand in the way of any near term measurable success. I define "near term" as 20-30 years for the purposes of this discussion.
On the other hand, it seems that an entire generation of young people who are at the age to become politically active "do get it" and are enlightened enough about the potential environmental and economic concerns, to promote the changes necessary to deal with this demon we have named "peak oil."
For those of us caught in the middle of this conflict, our work is to encourage and to offer support and guidance to that younger generation's effort where are abilities and finances provide us an opportunity to do so.
Once we "know what we know" that knowledge brings with it a moral imperative to act.
We need to help the issues of the day move forward and address the present as well as potential future deterioration of our economy and the environment.

Q4 Oil Price Targets

All of the best minds put together in one room could only make a "best guess" as to what Q4 holds, but at least SA has given us some numbers to talk about.
I am concerned about the aftermath of the November elections as it might or might not relate to the Iran nuclear issue and the price of oil. We could easily see $125 per barrel change to $250 per barrel overnight. I certainly hope that does not happen.
My best guess is that the above sample represents "as good a guess" as anybody else has right now, so go with it at $125.

Will Drilling Offshore Affect World Oil Prices?

The economic impact of offshore drilling is simply too far away in years to venture an educated guess. It's not like one day the "oil gate" will open and all of this offshore oil will come on line. The process will take time and it is likely that the crude produced will be "absorbed" into the world market without much of an impact whatever.
For example, by the time year 2025 oil products from offshore production platforms reach the market, it is very likely the consumer won't notice any price difference at the pump. Whether supply/demand factors will make that happen or be it via manipulation by the oil producers, the outcome will remain the same. Take your pick as per your politics.

Gulfport Energy: Production and Revenues Surge

Gulfport appears to be a well managed as well as well positioned independent oil and gas company. I like their low Debt/Equity ratio of 0.27 along with all of the other good news reported above. I have GPOR rated a solid BUY at $16.00.

Negative Trend for Oil Exploration and Production Stocks

It's always of interest reading what Zacks has to offer and then watching the markets to see if the majority of the "investors" followed that advice. Most mass movements of the majority point of view are usually wrong.
My interpretation of the "Estimate Revisions" is that they are probably too bearish. The oil & gas sectors seem to be primed for stock price and earnings stabilization with a period of steady growth soon to follow.
The "present time" affords a unique and unusual opportunity to acquire equity positions in very valuable companies. Take advantage of it!

As Oil Slides, Will Contrarians Turn to Refiners?

One would think that you could short oil and play the long position on oil refiners at the same time. This past week, Sunoco Inc (SUN) went up by 14.07%, Holly Corp (HOC) by 12.32%, Valero Energy (VLO) by 11.94%, Frontier Oil (FTO) by 12.93% and Alon USA (ALJ) by 5.00% while crude oil went down by -5.70%.
My hunch is that we can rely on the American consumer to soon return to some of their previous wasteful driving habits and keep the demand for refined crude oil products high. That would bode well for this group of stocks, easing the conservation effect that demand destruction was beginning to provide, unfortunate as that may be.
We are likely to see crude oil level off and hold somewhere around $110 a barrel and that support level could hold into early fall, providing the refiners ample time to stockpile crude oil inventories and/or future contracts to meet their needs for some time to come. That would further stabilize this industry past the near future.
I'm going with Chad on this call....that contrarians will turn to oil refiners and I believe that they began to do so about a week ago.

The Energy Follies

Captbob....Hawaii has to want to help themselves and one would think with those two "natural" resources at their disposal, they would be a leader in the tidal wave and geothermal energy producing technology.
It's probably a good thing they do not have any coal!
Is there a reader from Hawaii out there that could shed some light on this discussion?

The Energy Follies

I think Captbob has the best analysis out of all....but tblakeslee is putting his money where his mouth is touting geothermal energy as a positive idea, and I had not really considered it until I read his post and looked at his web site.
What about tidal flow as proposed by ormondsurfer? The US has one heck of a lot of coast lines affected by tidal flows, something we do not have to import! Here again is someone thinking about; how to skin a cat a different way.
And where can I get more information from jjason about the Navajo Nation wanting to build a clean coal power plant but the politics of Richardson and others being against such a project?
I for one am a proponent of oil and natural gas for the short term, while we undertake a real PUSH towards multiple alternative sources towards energy independence.
While each one of us have our own "pet project" or idea we would like to see on the forefront of that effort, do each other a favor; educate one another! I'll tell you about the abundance of natural gas right here in the US, you tell me about your ideas on geothermal and so on. Our ideas combined make the entire effort towards energy independence move forward; then educate. Talk it up to your friends and co-workers and tell them how cool of an idea you read about a clean coal fired power plant, that may or may not be built and what they can do to help.
Let's work together.

Crude Oil: How Far Will It Fall?

No one has considered the potential for political consequences in the pricing of oil, especially right around election day, in the US. If McCain wins I think Israel would "stand down" and let him work on Iran when he gets into office. If Obama wins, I would anticipate a maverick action against Iran by Israel while Bush is still in the White House.
Now, I'm only throwing that out there.....what do you think would happen? $200 a barrel overnight would be my guess.

The Obama/McCain Energy Charade: Nothing But Empty Ideas

The sad truth is Obama is just positioning himself for votes and really doesn't care about the economic consequences of the $1,000 per family rebate, the windfall profit tax or his plan to raid the strategic petroleum reserves.
McCain's ad campagin is becoming tiresome and is promoting apathy among our younger voters. McCain may have a better energy plan, but if he looses the election in November....then we're stuck with a real mess!

Why I'm Anti a 'Windfall Profit Tax' on Big Oil

Excellent article! From the comments posted, it is evident that it was read by people who support your views on the windfall profit tax. Now, what is to be done about those whose minds you could change if they simply would read the article?
I plan to make a few copies and take them to work tomorrow and hand them out. What about the rest of you?
That is how change begins; one mind at a time.

Depression Survival Guide

I certainly do not read the current economic climate to be in as dire a condition as the author states it is, or predicts it will become. Our "at home" industrial diversity and our "global" market positions in nearly every commodity, both as a producer and end product user, provides us an unprecedented protection from deliberate malicious interference in our economy.
Our monetary system is often maligned, misused and misguided by those who are in command to govern such matters; but it is the system that I choose to back my currency; not a gold coin or a silver nickel.
The global community looks to us for leadership and guidance in world economic matters. That "community" will do everything in their financial power to make sure their investments in our dollar remain sound investments.
This article seems to me to be more appropriate if it were addressed to a third world audience, not here in the USA. Not now and not in the foreseeable future.

Chesapeake Energy: Natural Gas Supply Responds to Price

Education of the consumer is not happening! We need to get the word out about natural gas. I wonder how many of the people reading this have ever really seen a vehicle that runs on clean natural gas? More needs to be done to set examples by those of us that believe in this technology. More exposure to the ideas and possibilities of the common sense approach of using a natural resource we have right here at home, needs to be explained to our news media too.
Just put "one word in front of another" about natural gas and keep talking, blogging and writing. Consumers want to listen to the truth so give it to them straight. Our dependence on foreigh oil has got to come to an end!