jdl51

Another Crisis Looms Right Around the Corner

Reminds me of Reagan's first term, gold at all time highs, unemployment over 10.5%, soaring deficits, the worst recession in years, raising taxes on social security, getting our butts kicked in Lebanon...........

Show Me Economic Expansion, Chairman Bernanke

"With a spread of over 475 basis points between the Fed rate and the interest rate of a 30yr fixed rate mortgage, the only entity whose financial condition is improving is Wall St. investment brokerages and the big banks, which have ties to those brokerages."

30 year fixed rate is based off 10 year treasury bills, currently around 3.4%, not the Fed funds rate.

Show Me Economic Expansion, Chairman Bernanke

"If the American people ever allow private banks to control the issue
of currency, first by inflation, then by deflation, the banks and
corporations that will grow up around them will deprive the people
of all property until their children wake up homeless on the continent their fathers conquered." Thomas Jefferson

Another totally bogus quote from TJ. The old Fox method of getting your point across, repeat some lie enough times and the ignorant will take it as the truth.
www.snopes.com/quotes/...


On Nov 22 08:27 AM Rosco1776 wrote:

> The light at the end of the tunnel is only flashlights trying to
> find their way through the darkness. End the fed and get back to
> sound economic policy like our founders suggested and set up for
> us. We are a long way off the path and it's going to be a rough road
> back but if we don't get back on track soon there will be no return
> without drastic measures. Let's not let it get so bad that we need
> another revolution!
>
> "If the American people ever allow private banks to control the issue
> of currency, first by inflation, then by deflation, the banks and
> corporations that will grow up around them will deprive the people
> of all property until their children wake up homeless on the continent
> their fathers conquered." Thomas Jefferson

Whitney Gets Bearish: Will She Be Right Again?

"You're missing the forest for the trees. Wall Street loves people who are only capable of seeing the surface of the circumstances..."


Some 94 percent of S&P 500 companies have reported to date, and 80 percent of those have beaten earnings expectations, which would be the highest percentage of companies beating estimates for a quarter since Thomson Reuters began tracking the data in 1994.

If I wait until hyperinflation, economic financial collapse, or whatever the doomsday scenario is these days, I'd have lost a terrific opportunity to make a lot of money. It appears that most of the doom and gloomers base their financial opinions on their political beliefs, that it's impossible for the economy to improve under the current administration. That thinking clouds their judgment, in other words, a big tree is blocking their view.

Whitney Gets Bearish: Will She Be Right Again?

No fundamental reason for the recent rally? How about most companies earnings met or exceeded analysts' estimates. Most companies are seeing slow improvement in the economy. 3rd quarter GDP growth was over 3% compared to a negative 6.5% in the 4th quarter last year. The rest of the world's economies are back on the road to expansion. I mean, come on. There may be bumps in the road ahead, but we are in much, much better shape than we were a year ago when everyone thought the world was coming to an end. Last September the DJI was at 11,500. I don't see these levels as outlandish by any means in a growing economy compared to what lay ahead of us this time last year and then compared to what's to come.

Meredith Whitney: 'I Haven't Been This Bearish in a Year'

It seems that the people crying about the market rising without fundamental support ignore the fact that 65% of the companies reporting last quarter exceeded earnings estimates. Markets look forward and with positive GDP growth for the first time in over a year, trillions in stimulus worldwide, decent or great earnings numbers, low interest rates, there is a floor under this market even from these levels. We'll have our little corrections here and there, but unless there is some game changing event, it looks like a slow, steady rise to the upside from here.

Meredith Whitney: 'I Haven't Been This Bearish in a Year'

"In this interview on CNBC, she says she is expecting a monster number from Goldman (GS) tomorrow morning, in 2010 and in 2011. She is well above the street on Goldman. She even uses the word ‘cheap’ when referring to the stock. Is Meredith Whitney a bull now? Have a listen – she also talks about other names and sees Bank of America (BAC) as the one to watch."

That was the middle of July when she thought GS was cheap. Only $25 a share later she's ready to throw it under the bus. Same goes for BAC. She missed the big runup after March where she continually said financials would take years to recover, then tried to get on board in July after she got burned and now is trying to get in front of any possible correction so she can say I told you so. What exactly has changed in the past seven months to have her jumping from one extreme to the other and then back again? She's just trying to cover her as..... I expect if nothing dramatic happens in the next few weeks and bank earnings jump again in the 4th qtr, she'll be out with another bullish pronouncement. Make up your mind, woman.

Do We Goldbugs Finally Have Your Attention?

I remember in 1980 I was living in the British Virgin Islands. There was a guy there huffing and puffing about how great gold was and he could play down there because of all of the money he was making on his gold investment. Then one day he got a call from his broker. He had borrowed against his account, he got a margin call and he was down to zero overnight. His girlfriend dumped him and took what little money he had left. Had to get a real job after that. Gold was over $800 an ounce then. So what is that, $300 in almost 30 years? When things go up, people think they'll always go up. When things go down, people think they'll always go down. The reality lies in between. Just ask the oil traders who swore oil was going to $200 last year.

And Bernanke Didn't Think Unemployment Would Reach 10%

What we're seeing is the result of eight years of republicanism. Seems like most posters here think that before January 22, things were just peachy. We came within a hair of a total financial meltdown. If we had let the banking system fail, there would have been total anarchy in the streets. Businesses everywhere would have shut their doors laying off tens of millions, that would have escalated until our economy would have suffered a crash that would make the great depression look like a tea party. That is the scope of the disaster that was unfolding last fall before any action was taken. Yet there are many here who seem to think that would have been the better path, to do nothing and let the whole system collapse. I do not like the fact that we have spent hundreds of billions to prop up the banking system but the alternative was far, far worse. Anyone who doesn't think so really doesn't have a grasp of what happened a year ago and its consequences or are so blinded by ideological hate that they don't care what happens to our country.

Earnings Season: The Car Is Shiny, But Look Under the Hood

Well, I've always been told that the markets are forward looking. We've gone up over 50% in six months. The markets anticipated improved earnings, they're here and now we're waiting for what's next. If the economy continues to improve, job cuts are trending down and are expected to show growth shortly after the first of the year, then we'll start the next leg up.

Property Values Set to Fall 43% from Current Depressed Levels

Fortunately I bought property in the '80s and '90s and have done fairly well, even if we get to the Armegeddon levels the author is predicting. Just looking at my area, S.Florida, another 40% plus drop seems highly unlikely. That would put waterfront homes in the 150s which haven't seen that level since the early '90s, late '80s. At those prices and at present interest rates, which are at historic lows, people would be snapping up property down here so fast it would make your head spin. Imagine you're a European and you could get a really nice condo on Miami Beach for less than 60,000 euros. There is a support level under this market and it is not 40% down from here unless the entire world economy goes completely down the tubes. At present the opposite is happening, with China growing near 9%, the U.S. showing positive growth, EU economy starting to expand, interest rates close to zero in some countries and global stimulus still with the pedal to the metal. If there is any improvement in employment, which at current productivity rates seems just around the corner, the stabilization will be firmly in place.

Oil: Supply and Demand? Hardly!

If you limited trading oil contracts to people who actually have a connection to the product and get speculators out of the arena, the price would probably drop by half, regardless of what the dollar is doing. The oil market is a manipulated market and has been for a long time, whether you're talking about the producers or the futures market. The WTO should have come down on OPEC a long time ago, but are too afraid to do so. And why the U.S. doesn't have a comprehensive energy policy that takes advantage of our huge NG reserves, promotes alternative energy and lessens our dependence and monetary support of ME regimes that are the source of terrorism shows the power of the oil lobby in this country. It should be about what benefits everyone and not just a bunch of Texas oilmen.

A Cautious Look at Where Markets Are Headed

It's hard to believe that with interest rates at 0, the 30 year mortgage at 5%, oil fairly stable, and earnings reports more up than down, that a protracted retreat in stock prices will happen. Correction, yes, but never before have we had interest rates this low with no hike on the horizon. Add to that the stimulus efforts worldwide I have to believe that next year will be a more gradual rise in stock prices than we've had the past few months with a few pullbacks along the way. Consumers should gradually work their way back into the picture, too. Automobile sales have been depressed lately and with a 12 million per year scrappage rate, it's only a matter of time before people will have to buy cars. We shall see.

Where's the Outrage at the Banks?

"Whoa there for a moment, lets be fair and think back in the early 1990's when our government who regulates our banks told them and other financial institutions to ease credit for those who normally cannot qualify for a home loan."

Let' be fair and tell the truth here. The CRA was implemented to stop banks from redlining neighborhoods that they were taking deposits from but refused to lend to. The banks were never "forced" to lend to anyone but were required to lend to qualified borrowers in neighborhoods that they serviced. The banking fiasco had its roots in irresponsible lending to just about everyone, not poor unemployed ghetto folks. If that were the case, we would not be having foreclosures in every neighborhood in the country, but would be limited to a few homes in the poorest neighborhoods that the right constantly tries to blame for the collapse of the whole financial system. You'd have to be an idiot or completely ignorant of how the system works to believe that. Banks went on a lending binge to anyone that walked in the door regardless of qualifications because they were more interested in making fees, securitizing the loans, passing them on to investment bankers who with the collusion of the rating agencies, sold them to an unsuspecting world and then the cycle repeated itself until it collapsed. And to multiply the problem, investment banks sold insurance policies, but they couldn't call them insurance policies because those are regulated so they called them credit default swaps. They sold them to anyone who wanted one, again to collect the fees on something they never thought they would have to pay off. Unfortunately the whole house of cards collapsed. The previous administration didn't believe in regulation and looked the other way while all this was going on instead of jumping in and putting a halt to it or at least try to regulate the derivatives industry which would have lessened the losses considerably. If you want to blame someone, blame the mortgage brokers that sold these subprime loans to people they knew wouldn't be able to pay, the appraisers that juiced their numbers, the regulators who were asleep at the switch and the ratings agencies that didn't bother to do their due diligence and check the underlying mortgages. Any link in that mortgage chain would have put a stop to the whole mess, yet all of them were too greedy to do their job responsibly.

Looking Back at Fiscal 2009

"Wow! talk about not being able to remember history!! It was a year ago when the Dem majority split the 2009 budget in half with "the Bush budget" covering the 6 months to end of March when the second half Democrat/Obama budget could run the deficit up faster than Bush ever had. If you are going to write here, at least TRY to get your facts straight. BTW, I think that Bush and the GOP congress were complete fiscal failures as are Obama and the Dems. WE ARE TOAST!"

Bush's 2009-2010 budget that he proposed, before Congress even looked at it, had a $1.2 trillion deficit, not including Iraq and Afghanistan, which he never included in his budgets since the wars started. So before Democrats touched it, he projected a $1.2 trillion/$1.4 trillion for this coming fiscal year which started a couple of weeks ago. Bush ran up close to $7 trillion in debt. Started at around $5 trillion and ended up close to $12 trillion, much of that when republicans had complete control of Congress. Of course, republicans have been saying for the past 30 years that deficits don't matter, except when a democrat is in charge. No one gave the dems credit when they fixed the budget mess left behind by Reagan and Bush I. They'll have to fix it again because the republicans are incapable of ever balancing a budget.