jdl51

Another Crisis Looms Right Around the Corner

Reminds me of Reagan's first term, gold at all time highs, unemployment over 10.5%, soaring deficits, the worst recession in years, raising taxes on social security, getting our butts kicked in Lebanon...........

Do We Goldbugs Finally Have Your Attention?

I remember in 1980 I was living in the British Virgin Islands. There was a guy there huffing and puffing about how great gold was and he could play down there because of all of the money he was making on his gold investment. Then one day he got a call from his broker. He had borrowed against his account, he got a margin call and he was down to zero overnight. His girlfriend dumped him and took what little money he had left. Had to get a real job after that. Gold was over $800 an ounce then. So what is that, $300 in almost 30 years? When things go up, people think they'll always go up. When things go down, people think they'll always go down. The reality lies in between. Just ask the oil traders who swore oil was going to $200 last year.

John Paulson: Long Financials

"How long between his actual trades and reporting? Cause when he sells it will signal the coming disaster that is bearing down on us. Too bad he isn't forced to release his positions daily. Then we all might have a chance in hell of avoiding the brunt of the next crash."

I doubt he committed $3 billion with the thought of pulling it out in a month or two. The Fed doesn't plan on raising rates for at least a few months. With the decreased competition in the banking industry, the spread in interest rates and a bottoming of the RE market, Paulsen made a very smart move. Too bad the doom and gloomers are missing out.

Is the U.S. Dollar Headed for a Mighty Crash? Part II

"Everyday I spent alot of mind energy in an attempt to "obama proof" my portfolio and protect it from the disaster in the the making."

If we had all spent a lot of time Republicanizing our portfolios the past couple of years, we would be in great shape. The "disaster in the making" has been in the making for eight years now and we are bearing the fruits. Our problems didn't start on January 20, for those of you with selective memory. Bush's last budget that he submitted had a projected deficit of $1.2 trillion and, of course, with Iraq and Afghanistan off budget not included in that figure. But somehow Obama is ruining the economy even though his first budget won't take effect until next year.

As far as the commodity crisis now being touted everywhere, oil production by OPEC, Russia, etc. has been cut back. Oil inventories are close to all time highs, both in storage tanks and tankers at anchor. Gas prices are rising now because refiners are cutting back production and manipulating the market, as usual this time of year. POT just announced that they have cut back production due to lack of demand. Factory utilization worldwide is at the low end of the spectrum, which would depress steel, etc. Japan's economy shrank 15% last quarter. Just because China is stockpiling doesn't mean that there is a rise in demand by consumers. Demand creates inflation. No demand, no pricing power. The U.S. is 28% of the world economy. The EU and UK are in recession at least as bad as our. With that large a percentage of consumers on the ropes, higher prices are not the problem at this point in time. Talk to me in a year or two and things might be different.

Where Are Jim Rogers, Marc Faber and Doug Casey Investing Their Money in This Market?

Rogers has been down on the dollar and pumping commodities and so far has been 100% wrong. Eventually it will turn around because both are very cyclical but by then you'll be broke. If no one has a job, it's going to be tough to have a commodities rally although with all the stimulus being pumped into the world economy something should break loose in the coming months. It's easy to say something will go up or down because that's what things do, it's the timing that is the key.

A Rotting Market Stinks from the Head

Treasuries won't tank anytime soon because as bad as it is here, the rest of the world is just as bad, if not worse and most of the world still views the U.S. as the last safe refuge. Read an article the other day where things are heading downhill fast in Russia and folks there are trading in rubles for dollars. Same thing is happening elsewhere, too. Now, if things start turning around people will trade in their dollars and then see the massive debt we have accumulated, but I don't expect that to happen in the next year or so.

Gold Bull Sees Huge Run for Gold

Thanks, GWB and all his supporters for destroying the U.S. economy.

Why Commodities May Be Nearing a Turning Point

Population will go up another 500,000,000 in the next seven years. I think I can safely say food production will be hard pressed to keep up and that's not even taking into account regional droughts, rains, etc. So from a long term perspective the ags look like the place to be. We are one crop report away from a run up, frost, flood. Everything is now lumped together with oil and the dollar. If they decouple from the two because of demand increases, look out.