Mark Divy

Toyota Joins Ford and Swings to a Surprise Profit

Interesting comments - just wondering how much trouble would be involved in identifying the actual US Autos -

Would have to eliminate the Pontiacs, mostly from Australia, watch out for the Chryslers and GM products from Canada, Fords made in Mexico, etc.

Also, where should the line be drawn, do Honda and Toyota production in Ohio and Kentucky cound as US autos, or not? Cuttinhg out these folks would eliminate many US jobs there, as well as support operations and part suppliers.

Dow and Then: 1999 vs. 2009

My investment portfolio has increased by over 14x from additional cash and investment income during the period from 1999 to 2009 (not very remarkable, but to prove a point). It is not what the Dow says, it only matters what you buy, when you sale, and why.

The Problems with Brad DeLong's Keynesian Stimulus Proposals

By the way - sounds like a nice retirement plan. Just watch out for those waves.

The Problems with Brad DeLong's Keynesian Stimulus Proposals

The problem is that we have never really applied the teachings of Keynes. His basic belief was to build up a "rainy day" account during good times, and then apply that as stimulus during bad times. With such a large amount of debt, we have never really been in a position to apply this model to our economy. I doubt that he would have thought that stimulus spending as debt that is likey never repaid, and just added to the last recovery cost - would apply to his economic thought.

Got to pay off the debt, and maintain some surplus cash to use Keynesian economics. China remains the only actual example of Keynes theories.

Inventories May Have Dropped, But Crude Oil Prices Still Constrained by Natural Gas Oversupply

Please explain the link from Crude Oil to Natural Gas. Other than some trend lines, what is the actual link? What current use of crude is easy to transfer to natural gas with minimal investment? Just like Stefan, I wonder why so many investors and investment talk treats these two fuel sources as interchangeable. Other than a BTU equivalency, not sure there is any real market factors that would make them correlate. Coal also has a BTU rating, but I don't notice folks predicting price of coal based on price of oil...

3 'Wonderful Dividend Stocks at a Fair Price'

Do you ever consider higher risk stocks? Would be interesting to see what you might consider as future buys, but currently not paying or recently lowered payout companies that should recover in the near term (6-12 months). This is a riskier effort, but one that could proivde upside on the price when a pick regains its payout.

Economics and Its Discontents

Part of the problem is that we have never followed the Keynesian side of economics. China's recent injection of "on hand" capital is really the first chance we have to see what might happen if we really took some of the excess and saved it until there was an economic downturn. I am sure Keynes would not have seen this as the first true test of his theory. We have spent billions during this and previous recessions, but we have never really performed the asset build within the government during the good times to really test the Keynesian side of econimics. Check back in a year or so and then we can compare the actual results of China's recovery with the Keynesian theories.

Oil and Natural Gas: Ratio Explodes in 2009

I completely agree with manya05

Kurt Wulff published an article back when oil was 150 BBL, saying NG would soon be at $20, Cramer calling for buys on NG during the oil spike due to the ratio.

Bottome line - they are not interchangeable - relationship does not work. Why keep beating the incorrect assumption that they are linked?

If you would like stock recommendations during a low cycle in NG, why not take a look at those that are underperforming their cash flow - due mostly to factors external to their business. BBEP is an example of a company with majority of NG (and oil) production hedged until 2011 - but has been beaten down of late due to lower NG prices (which do not hurt their cash flow) and temporary loan covenant issues that do not allow for paying dividends due to institutions lowering their available credit. BBEP has no credit problems, repaying outstanding loan balances every quarter, and plenty of cash to spare. Would suggest this one as a double - especially when they restart dividends in the not so distant future.

How PHEVs and EVs Will Sabotage America's Drive for Energy Independence

Gas - C5H12

Carbon Atomic weight 12

Drop 2 Hydrogen, replace each remaining Hydrogen (Atomic weight 1) with one Oxygen (Atomic Weight 16) during the burn.

Net result molecule of atomic weight of 72 replaced with 5 molecules of CO2 with atomic weight of 44 - total of 220

~3 times the begining weight of gasoline

How PHEVs and EVs Will Sabotage America's Drive for Energy Independence

I do agree with John - this perspective is something that must be considered, especially with the limited supplies of rare earth minerals for building newer batteries, and implications on oil consumption.

Another way to look at this question is how can we reduce/eliminate the 9.2 Million barrels of oil import per day, with gas demand approximately 9.1 Million barrels per day. Without maximizing our resources to cut the most use, we will have a hard time eliminating imported oil.

Mexico's Declining Oil Production: Clarion Call for Cantarell

I love how someone always comments against Electric cars with the question of "where do you get your electricity". There is always a down side to everything, but would the fanatics in the room please quit trying to battle everything? We need to start somewhere, and cutting gas usage & petroleum imports looks like a really good place to start. I would say that replacing electric generation with greener alternatives is easier than replacing gas with "greener" gas.

Think Wind, think solar, better batteries, ultra capicators form Maxwell Technologies, recycle for energy by Global Resources Corp, wave and tide generators, etc.

If you have some better suggestions - please provide them.

Penn West: Distribution at Risk

Purely speculation from the analyst. Even if they double their capital program, the funds flow would easily cover this and the current level of distribution. Div cut would only be based on lower oil/NG prices in the coming months. Current oil price move to upside with pending (hopefully) recovery should assist in funds flow as well.

Has the Housing Market Hit Bottom?

Sometimes it is good to live in a quiet neighborhood. While states like Florida, California, Nevada have dramatic declines (matching dramatic growth of last years before the fall) we in middle America have fairly low level of complications from housing. Higher(>$350K) range homes are very slow moving, but reasonable priced homes are moving fine. Our bigger problem is the unemployment from the Auto bust - which may have more effect on our future housing than current supply and demand considerations.

The Bull Case for EnCana

Encana is a Canadian Company - not a U.S. company.

MDU Resources: Obama's Kind of Company

I have never understood how the Street's "smart" folks have never looked beyond the name for this stock. Funniest example was Cramer type casting this stock as a basic utility and not liking it, while at the same time puching natrual gas.....

Good to know what you are looking at rather than just looking at the name.