Mark Divy

Earth to GE: Boost Your Dividend

I would also not expect any change in the near term. Combined with the CRE exposure, and general market intangibles, I would also like to see them get some of the debt off the books as well. $60 Bil sounds like a lot, but when there accounts payable each quarter are half of that it puts the cash on hand in a different perspective. Remember - many of the companies that have had such a hard time lately also have increased their debt load way too much. A bit more reasonable debt load would be a good first step to creating shareholder value and stability.

Is Oil Demand Increasing or Shrinking?

And, of course, all of that supply is waiting to be had for $10 a barrel? Cheap oil is getting hard to find - oil that will require additional procesisng is pelntiful, but cannot be had cheaply. Supply will keep up with demand only as long as there is a profit margin for the producers. If not, the investments for growth will not materialize in time to meet full demand.


On Dec 04 01:52 PM amdman wrote:

> The Peak Oil scam/bubble is about to pop like all bubbles.
> Like all bubbles it was peak demand, not peak supply, we have at
> least 200 years of oil, not including another 200 years oil shale
> and 1000 years coal that can also be converted to oil.

Rapid Transition to Grid Enabled Vehicles Not Possible or Desirable

John,

I enjoy your articles. Always seem to get a new point of view form them, and the follow up comments. One add for you in addition to the Lithium "shortage" are the other rare earth parts that go into the EV lines. Info listed below from earleir Yahoo new article.

Much like the peak oil discussion and how we can always potentially find more - the truth is that there is a limited supply of identified commodities to work with. How we best use them to aid our energy fight is the real issue.

news.yahoo.com/s/nm/20...

Each electric Prius motor requires 1 kilogram (2.2 lb) of neodymium, and each battery uses 10 to 15 kg (22-33 lb) of lanthanum. That number will nearly double under Toyota's plans to boost the car's fuel economy, he said.

Among the rare earths that would be most affected in a shortage is neodymium, the key component of an alloy used to make he high-power, lightweight magnets for electric motors of hybrid cars, such as the Prius, Honda Insight and Ford Fusion, as well as in generators for wind turbines.

Close cousins terbium and dysprosium are added in smaller amounts to the alloy to preserve neodymium's magnetic properties at high temperatures. Yet another rare earth metal, lanthanum, is a major ingredient for hybrid car batteries

How Oil and Gas Investors Can Prepare for the Energy Trust Corporate Conversion

As a consistent holder of Canadian Energy trusts since the late 90's with Shining Bank, I am very interested in the points provided in this article. It would be interesting to see the author's take on some of the other trusts that have not yet converted, for balanced producers like PWE, oil heavy folks like BTE, or integrated companies like PVX.

Gold: Expect a Technical Correction Before the Final Frontier

No doubt about it - investor bubble that will drop - just like every other incredible spike in gold, oil, or fil in the blank commodity. Remember, all of those real estate investors were sure of their never ending growth as well. Hoarding of gold, much as in the case of diamonds, is the main reason there is value increase here. When the sellers come out, there will be no demand....

Inventories May Have Dropped, But Crude Oil Prices Still Constrained by Natural Gas Oversupply

Please explain the link from Crude Oil to Natural Gas. Other than some trend lines, what is the actual link? What current use of crude is easy to transfer to natural gas with minimal investment? Just like Stefan, I wonder why so many investors and investment talk treats these two fuel sources as interchangeable. Other than a BTU equivalency, not sure there is any real market factors that would make them correlate. Coal also has a BTU rating, but I don't notice folks predicting price of coal based on price of oil...

How PHEVs and EVs Will Sabotage America's Drive for Energy Independence

Gas - C5H12

Carbon Atomic weight 12

Drop 2 Hydrogen, replace each remaining Hydrogen (Atomic weight 1) with one Oxygen (Atomic Weight 16) during the burn.

Net result molecule of atomic weight of 72 replaced with 5 molecules of CO2 with atomic weight of 44 - total of 220

~3 times the begining weight of gasoline

Penn West: Distribution at Risk

Purely speculation from the analyst. Even if they double their capital program, the funds flow would easily cover this and the current level of distribution. Div cut would only be based on lower oil/NG prices in the coming months. Current oil price move to upside with pending (hopefully) recovery should assist in funds flow as well.

Top Dividend Stocks to Accumulate Now

MLPs are much like the CONROYS - stocks like these provide high dividends, but are not for everyone. There are specific tax consequences, and IRA vs Open considerations, and risks that many folks just don't like to mess with. Both have good dividends, but would not show up on his list due to variations in payouts, and higher dividend pay out ratio. Many of these are either paying less or not paying during the last year.

But, that said, I do own some of both...

Economics and Its Discontents

Part of the problem is that we have never followed the Keynesian side of economics. China's recent injection of "on hand" capital is really the first chance we have to see what might happen if we really took some of the excess and saved it until there was an economic downturn. I am sure Keynes would not have seen this as the first true test of his theory. We have spent billions during this and previous recessions, but we have never really performed the asset build within the government during the good times to really test the Keynesian side of econimics. Check back in a year or so and then we can compare the actual results of China's recovery with the Keynesian theories.

Peak Oil Demand

I do think that the growth in oil demand in China and India will be the near term catalyst for demand growth. Their increase in demand over the last few years were key to the short term price spikes of $140 a barrel. The unknown is how much growth will occur in Asia, and how much will that growing working class really affect world demand.

Second, the whole demand curve can really change if we would just start working through some of the heavy oil / sour crude that is laying around unwanted. Access to this supply would change the proven reserve count over night.

Lastly, I hope we do continue to decrease our demand in the US for oil. Not a big believer in mercantilism, but sending the amount of cash overseas every year is really slowing us down. So, I hope the IEA projections are correct for the USA.

Dow and Then: 1999 vs. 2009

My investment portfolio has increased by over 14x from additional cash and investment income during the period from 1999 to 2009 (not very remarkable, but to prove a point). It is not what the Dow says, it only matters what you buy, when you sale, and why.

The Problems with Brad DeLong's Keynesian Stimulus Proposals

The problem is that we have never really applied the teachings of Keynes. His basic belief was to build up a "rainy day" account during good times, and then apply that as stimulus during bad times. With such a large amount of debt, we have never really been in a position to apply this model to our economy. I doubt that he would have thought that stimulus spending as debt that is likey never repaid, and just added to the last recovery cost - would apply to his economic thought.

Got to pay off the debt, and maintain some surplus cash to use Keynesian economics. China remains the only actual example of Keynes theories.

Mexico's Declining Oil Production: Clarion Call for Cantarell

I love how someone always comments against Electric cars with the question of "where do you get your electricity". There is always a down side to everything, but would the fanatics in the room please quit trying to battle everything? We need to start somewhere, and cutting gas usage & petroleum imports looks like a really good place to start. I would say that replacing electric generation with greener alternatives is easier than replacing gas with "greener" gas.

Think Wind, think solar, better batteries, ultra capicators form Maxwell Technologies, recycle for energy by Global Resources Corp, wave and tide generators, etc.

If you have some better suggestions - please provide them.

Has the Housing Market Hit Bottom?

Sometimes it is good to live in a quiet neighborhood. While states like Florida, California, Nevada have dramatic declines (matching dramatic growth of last years before the fall) we in middle America have fairly low level of complications from housing. Higher(>$350K) range homes are very slow moving, but reasonable priced homes are moving fine. Our bigger problem is the unemployment from the Auto bust - which may have more effect on our future housing than current supply and demand considerations.