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Countering Those Anti-Peak Oil Types

Matt Simmons was one of the first to point out (in his book, published about 2004) the reduction in Saudi reserves, contributing to his view that even if oil production goes up, proven reserves go down. The most appropriate model for describing or predicting the future of oil is the commons model. In essence, as the rate of consumption exceeds the rate of finding new reserves, the capital costs of finding and developing reserves inevitably increase. At some point, the costs become so high that demand falls (or shifts to other forms of energy).

A similar phenomenon is happening in the fishing industry, where the catch of certain types of fish (such as cod) is collapsing due to overfishing or environmental changes. The commons model is appropriate for each of these dilemmas.