Intel Likely To Win More Samsung Designs [View article]
I don't know why the author avoids comparing the purported selling price of Intel's tablet and smartphone chips with the competition. It appears that Intel chips cost about ten times more than designs based on ARM, whether in the form of Samsung, Apple, Broadcom, or Qualcomm versions. If Intel is successful in penetrating a market dominated by ARM based designs, Intel will have to reduce its prices, and of course, profits.
As to the performance of the new Intel chips, they purportedly use less battery power than corresponding Qualcomm chips. But since Qualcomm concentrates on the entire system on a chip, from the baseband covering all the bases, both 3G and 4G, to the processor itself, it isn't clear that whatever Intel is claiming runs on less TOTAL power for the combined chip.
Palo Alto Networks - Revenue Slowdown And Margin Pressure Does Not Bode Well For The Future [View article]
"Besides the poor revenue numbers for the third quarter . . ."
What? Is 82% revenue growth considered poor?
One other factor not sufficiently considered in this article is the impact of increased hacking into networks, leading to the stealing of company critical data and information. In this climate, companies, especially those developing innovative technology, are and will continue to be willing to invest in network security. Palo Alto Networks appears to have some technology that works better and costs less than that of the traditional leader Checkpoint.
Relatively new companies such as PANW often experience financial stress over the first few years after going public. PANW is no different, but what seems to make the difference over its competitors is simply better, lower cost technology.
Qualcomm Inc.: Fundamental Stock Research Analysis [View article]
Excellent analysis, especially because of the 15–year time frame.
Fundamentals should also include management quality, even though measurements may be more subjective. For example, Qualcomm is rated as one of the 100 best companies to work for. Management always has had top credentials when it comes to engineering/scientific skills as well as a management track record.
Finally, position within a firm's market niche is also important. Qualcomm is the leading wireless technology company in terms of chip sales, royalties, and market penetration, especially in third and fourth generation technology. Dominant companies are able to set prices to their own advantage. Intel has been the dominant company for over 30 years in microprocessors built around their x86 architecture. Qualcomm dominates the baseband modem chip business for smartphones and tablets and has almost 90% market share for baseband chips that support LTE (long term evolution).
One reason that QCOM shares seem to be undervalued (as noted in the above charts) is that Intel's reputation and current public relations efforts have moved institutional investors to the notion that Intel will overtake Qualcomm in just a matter of time. This has yet to be proved, but what is clear is that Intel cannot only claim a foot in the door when it comes to wireless communications.
Micron And SanDisk: A Tale Of 2 Memory Companies [View article]
The link you have cited on Intel's 3D NAND plans is consistent with statements made recently (this morning) by Sanjay Mehrotra at SanDisk's presentation. Sanjay pointed out that SanDisk is no hurry to implement 3D because at present it isn't price competitive with 2D, and specifically with the triple-level cells that SanDisk routinely provides for many of its products.
SanDisk is still probably the low cost producer – lower cost than Samsung, especially now that the Japanese yen has been devalued. Samsung has announced a 3D chip under development, which suggests that their 2D production (after paying royalties to SanDisk for some of their multi-level cell units) is bringing in lower than desirable profit margins. SanDisk profit margins are exceptionally good at this time – around 40% and likely to improve to 43% as a result of implementing 19 nm technology and the lower valued yen.
Micron, on the other hand, is still having trouble making a profit on NAND. This is due partly to their much lower scale of operations but may also be due to less sophisticated technology, especially now that SanDisk also benefits from Pliant's technology for enterprise servers.
A few years ago at one of the conference calls that followed the quarterly earnings release, former SanDisk CEO Eli Harari indicated that he thought there would be a royalty issue in regard to Micron producing chips independently of Intel (which has a cross licensing agreement with SanDisk). How this issue is being resolved at present is not clear, but I suspect that as Micron increases its production, the issue may reappear.
Micron And SanDisk: A Tale Of 2 Memory Companies [View article]
You stated: "SanDisk's primary business is NAND based solution products and only sells NAND at the component level when they have extra parts that can't be sold in finished products. The company is committed to take about 35% of the output of the Toshiba fabs; Toshiba markets the 65% balance of the output primarily as components."
Whoa! I think your data are out of date. For a brief period, SanDisk, pressed for cash, agreed to let Toshiba take about 65% of the output of existing fabs. But when the new fab 5 went into production, SanDisk and Toshiba were sharing the output equally. And now it appears that SanDisk is actually buying additional output from Toshiba.
SanDisk sells both finished components and embedded flash -- whatever a particular customer needs. In this case, SanDisk's largest customer for embedded flash is Apple. But SanDisk also has the largest retail footprint of all manufacturers of NAND flash, and its brand is recognized for quality, consistency, and reliability, especially when used for cameras and video.
I suggest you read the latest financial reports from SanDisk and back it up with the transcript of the latest conference call, plus the presentation before investors, scheduled to take place on May 29, and then correct your article accordingly.
Re: Intel's x86 architecture is the heart of its processor designs, including the Atom and recently announced chips that improve on the Atom design. All these chips are categorized as complex instruction set chips (CISC); whereas ARM based chip designs are reduced instruction set chips (RISC).
The difference in these two chip designs is that one is more complex and more expensive (and power consuming) than the other. Intel's newest chips, using perhaps 14 nm technology (current chips are still at 22 nm) can be as power efficient as ARM based chips, such as Qualcomm's Snapdragon 400, 600, and 800 series, which do not derive their efficiency from wire width as much as from simpler, more elegant design.
The other factor I mentioned is equally important -- baseband chips. You just can't build a radio chip and related antenna and power management modules without a lot of experience. Intel tried this with an investment in WiMax, and it failed. Intel, having purchased Infineon in order to get a company with an operating radio chip, has its foot in the door, but that's different from being a technology leader.
As I've noted many times, comparing Intel and Qualcomm is like comparing GM and Toyota. GM tried and failed numerous times to make a good, spacious, and reliable small car. They failed mainly because they tried to build a small car with parts and designs made originally for larger cars. Toyota started with a small car vision and ended up being one of the largest, most productive small car manufacturers. Same goes for Honda and lately for Hundai and Kia.
Intel is trying to enter the mobile market with a chip design for larger computers, customized and reduced in size to work in a cell phone or tablet. But as Intel struggles with remaking its old x86 architecture, Qualcomm and others (especially Samsung) continue to perfect their designs, all ARM based. This is not a market standing still. Whether Intel can compete profitably in it is still a big question.
By the time Intel gets its integrated chips (baseband + processor) on the market, later this year or early next year, their performance is likely to be similar to the Qualcomm baseband (all systems including LTE) and Snapdragon processor.
Intel is by no means the only semiconductor company making advances in line with Moore's law. But Intel faces additional challenges from obsolete and unnecessarily complex processor architecture, along with much less experience than competing baseband chip designs.
Face it. Intel is late in the wireless sector and not likely to dislodge the current leaders. Certainly not likely with the margins Intel is accustomed to receive from its microprocessors for computers and servers. By the time Intel has a reliable integrated chip on the market, Qualcomm will have a newer, probably less expensive product giving the same or better performance.
Micron: The Prime Beneficiary Of The War Between Apple And Samsung [View article]
You believe Micron will gain business with Apple, based on issues between Apple and Samsung, the former supplier of flash memory. However, you did not mention that the major supplier of embedded NAND flash memory for Apple's smartphones and tablets is now SanDisk, and to a lesser extent, its joint partner Toshiba.
Do you think that Micron can produce embedded flash memory at less cost than SanDisk? If so, why? Remember that SanDisk has its wafer and related production entirely in Japan, and recent devaluation of the Japanese yen from 78 to 102 to the dollar has made SanDisk's Japanese production very competitive. SanDisk, moreover, has certain essential patents related to the design of NAND flash memory, allowing it to receive considerable royalty payments.
In short, why do you believe Micron is most likely to benefit from the changed relationship between Apple and Samsung?
American Superconductor: A Turnaround Play With Asymmetric Upside Potential [View article]
The share price of AMSC gained close to 25% early last week, as trading volume on two days soared to about four times normal. Assuming that the price increase (now having subsided) was due to buying pressure, there was a brief buying demand for about 3 million shares (out of 57 million outstanding).
There has been no corporate news that might explain the sudden interest in AMSC. However, about two weeks ago, there was an announcement that Clovis, New Mexico had approved an industrial bond issue that would provide funds to tie together the three main electric grids in the southwest US, covering regions from Texas to southern California. It appears that AMSC will get some business from this deal, and that may be why there was, briefly, more interest in the shares.
Infrastructure investments, such as improvements to the electrical grid, can spur economic growth. But these kinds of investments generally require a government commitment to continuing investment, and that is not a sure thing in the current political climate.
One Of Exxon Mobil's Long-Term Alternative Fuel Investments: Algae [View article]
The latest XOM investment in algae related technology looks about as good as their investment some 30 years ago in Reliance Electric. When companies invest in technologies about which they have little or no knowledge and experience, it usually goes bad, as it did with Reliance.
Solazyme has proven technology that is scalable. The company claims that it can produce diesel/aviation fuels profitably at $2/gal. or less. They're in no hurry to enter this market, as their other products deliver much higher margins -- oils for cosmetics and foods. In this article, the writer overestimates what ExxonMobil can accomplish and underestimates what Solazyme already is accomplishing.
Aegerion's Pricing Power Sends Shares Flying [View article]
Juxtapid and Kynamro are two competing products that achieve similar results for similar target populations. Juxtapid is taken orally; Kynamro is injected. Questions of safety and toxicity have been raised for both drugs. In general, oral drugs can have greater side effects than injected drugs, which go more quickly to the target site.
That factor, together with the significantly greater cost of Juxtapid, could reduce demand for the drug.
Why Corning Is A Sell Above $15 And A Buy At $13 Or Less [View article]
Not mentioned in the article (among other things) was that Corning incurred significant losses from its productions of wafers for solar photovoltaic cells during the last two years, when the solar cell market was depressed. Since that time, demand for solar cells has picked up especially in the US, where tax credits for wind and solar were reinstated.
Corning, it appears, will once again make reasonable profits from its polysilicon production for solar. Additionally, demand is once again improving (slightly) for TV displays, the business which went down most over the last few years. Finally, Corning is experiencing much greater demand for its fiber optic business, which because of overcapacity, is what caused the stock to drop many years ago.
The new glass for smartphones, tablets, and laptops, while still a relatively small business compared to TV displays, is icing on the cake.
By relying on technical analysis, which by definition does not take into account any of the fundamentals (including book value, which has been running above market value), the writer has completely missed the true value of Corning.
Apple, Android, And The Future Of The Smartphone [View article]
Other factors ignored by the author:
1. Apple's IOS survives because it works more easily and intuitively than even the latest versions of Android. The growing numbers of apps assure that this system will be in demand not only for casual browsing but for serious work (medical monitoring, inventory, flight plans, music scores, to mention just a few business applications).
2. Apple generates huge profits on downloads from the Apple store and iTunes, e-books, etc. The cash flow generated from these sources has been largely overlooked by analysts touting Intel and other competitors.
3. Samsung is the most completely vertically integrated producer of electronic products, especially those that utilize Android or compete with other systems, including IOS and Windows. Samsung, because of its vertical integration is currently the most profitable of all companies in the smartphone/tablet sector. Smaller competitors often have to buy components from Samsung at prices that guarantee a good markup for Samsung.
4. Intel and Microsoft are late in the game for mobile devices. They are playing second, or third fiddle to the largest producers of devices and related components. The large number of apps for both IOS and Android assures that these systems will remain dominant in smartphones and tablets for many years.
5. Juxtaposing this article with numerous earlier articles by the same writer reveals a hopeless bias in favor of Intel and Microsoft, without a reasonable basis. In short, this article is worthless for most investors.
Intel Won't Build Apple's Chips; It Still Makes No Sense [View article]
Intel already sells processor chips for Apple computers. It is not a stretch that Intel also might sell processors for Apple tablets and/or smartphones. What is a stretch, however, is that Intel would ever consider licensing ARM chip designs in order to build processors for Apple and others.
Clean Energy Turns Profits Into Stock Losses [View article]
There are two separate natural gas markets in the transportation sector – LNG and CNG. Compressed natural gas has by far the largest potential because it is easier to store and use. Engines built for CNG (and often equipped to switch to a different fuel, such as gasoline) are just beginning to come to market in large quantities. Slow growth in CNG gallons sold reflects this slow transition.
It's also true that there are numerous subsidies built into the conventional gasoline and diesel fuel markets, reducing the price differential between CNG and diesel. A reduction of these mostly needless subsidies would help in the transition. Though I don't own CLNE at the moment, I've followed it for about two years and may buy some shares as fleet truck/bus demand improves.
Intel Likely To Win More Samsung Designs [View article]
As to the performance of the new Intel chips, they purportedly use less battery power than corresponding Qualcomm chips. But since Qualcomm concentrates on the entire system on a chip, from the baseband covering all the bases, both 3G and 4G, to the processor itself, it isn't clear that whatever Intel is claiming runs on less TOTAL power for the combined chip.
These factors cannot be ignored . . .
Palo Alto Networks - Revenue Slowdown And Margin Pressure Does Not Bode Well For The Future [View article]
What? Is 82% revenue growth considered poor?
One other factor not sufficiently considered in this article is the impact of increased hacking into networks, leading to the stealing of company critical data and information. In this climate, companies, especially those developing innovative technology, are and will continue to be willing to invest in network security. Palo Alto Networks appears to have some technology that works better and costs less than that of the traditional leader Checkpoint.
Relatively new companies such as PANW often experience financial stress over the first few years after going public. PANW is no different, but what seems to make the difference over its competitors is simply better, lower cost technology.
Disclosure – long on PANW.
Qualcomm Inc.: Fundamental Stock Research Analysis [View article]
Fundamentals should also include management quality, even though measurements may be more subjective. For example, Qualcomm is rated as one of the 100 best companies to work for. Management always has had top credentials when it comes to engineering/scientific skills as well as a management track record.
Finally, position within a firm's market niche is also important. Qualcomm is the leading wireless technology company in terms of chip sales, royalties, and market penetration, especially in third and fourth generation technology. Dominant companies are able to set prices to their own advantage. Intel has been the dominant company for over 30 years in microprocessors built around their x86 architecture. Qualcomm dominates the baseband modem chip business for smartphones and tablets and has almost 90% market share for baseband chips that support LTE (long term evolution).
One reason that QCOM shares seem to be undervalued (as noted in the above charts) is that Intel's reputation and current public relations efforts have moved institutional investors to the notion that Intel will overtake Qualcomm in just a matter of time. This has yet to be proved, but what is clear is that Intel cannot only claim a foot in the door when it comes to wireless communications.
Micron And SanDisk: A Tale Of 2 Memory Companies [View article]
SanDisk is still probably the low cost producer – lower cost than Samsung, especially now that the Japanese yen has been devalued. Samsung has announced a 3D chip under development, which suggests that their 2D production (after paying royalties to SanDisk for some of their multi-level cell units) is bringing in lower than desirable profit margins. SanDisk profit margins are exceptionally good at this time – around 40% and likely to improve to 43% as a result of implementing 19 nm technology and the lower valued yen.
Micron, on the other hand, is still having trouble making a profit on NAND. This is due partly to their much lower scale of operations but may also be due to less sophisticated technology, especially now that SanDisk also benefits from Pliant's technology for enterprise servers.
A few years ago at one of the conference calls that followed the quarterly earnings release, former SanDisk CEO Eli Harari indicated that he thought there would be a royalty issue in regard to Micron producing chips independently of Intel (which has a cross licensing agreement with SanDisk). How this issue is being resolved at present is not clear, but I suspect that as Micron increases its production, the issue may reappear.
Micron And SanDisk: A Tale Of 2 Memory Companies [View article]
Whoa! I think your data are out of date. For a brief period, SanDisk, pressed for cash, agreed to let Toshiba take about 65% of the output of existing fabs. But when the new fab 5 went into production, SanDisk and Toshiba were sharing the output equally. And now it appears that SanDisk is actually buying additional output from Toshiba.
SanDisk sells both finished components and embedded flash -- whatever a particular customer needs. In this case, SanDisk's largest customer for embedded flash is Apple. But SanDisk also has the largest retail footprint of all manufacturers of NAND flash, and its brand is recognized for quality, consistency, and reliability, especially when used for cameras and video.
I suggest you read the latest financial reports from SanDisk and back it up with the transcript of the latest conference call, plus the presentation before investors, scheduled to take place on May 29, and then correct your article accordingly.
Intel: Solving The Margin Puzzle [View article]
The difference in these two chip designs is that one is more complex and more expensive (and power consuming) than the other. Intel's newest chips, using perhaps 14 nm technology (current chips are still at 22 nm) can be as power efficient as ARM based chips, such as Qualcomm's Snapdragon 400, 600, and 800 series, which do not derive their efficiency from wire width as much as from simpler, more elegant design.
The other factor I mentioned is equally important -- baseband chips. You just can't build a radio chip and related antenna and power management modules without a lot of experience. Intel tried this with an investment in WiMax, and it failed. Intel, having purchased Infineon in order to get a company with an operating radio chip, has its foot in the door, but that's different from being a technology leader.
As I've noted many times, comparing Intel and Qualcomm is like comparing GM and Toyota. GM tried and failed numerous times to make a good, spacious, and reliable small car. They failed mainly because they tried to build a small car with parts and designs made originally for larger cars. Toyota started with a small car vision and ended up being one of the largest, most productive small car manufacturers. Same goes for Honda and lately for Hundai and Kia.
Intel is trying to enter the mobile market with a chip design for larger computers, customized and reduced in size to work in a cell phone or tablet. But as Intel struggles with remaking its old x86 architecture, Qualcomm and others (especially Samsung) continue to perfect their designs, all ARM based. This is not a market standing still. Whether Intel can compete profitably in it is still a big question.
Intel: Solving The Margin Puzzle [View article]
Intel is by no means the only semiconductor company making advances in line with Moore's law. But Intel faces additional challenges from obsolete and unnecessarily complex processor architecture, along with much less experience than competing baseband chip designs.
Face it. Intel is late in the wireless sector and not likely to dislodge the current leaders. Certainly not likely with the margins Intel is accustomed to receive from its microprocessors for computers and servers. By the time Intel has a reliable integrated chip on the market, Qualcomm will have a newer, probably less expensive product giving the same or better performance.
Micron: The Prime Beneficiary Of The War Between Apple And Samsung [View article]
Do you think that Micron can produce embedded flash memory at less cost than SanDisk? If so, why? Remember that SanDisk has its wafer and related production entirely in Japan, and recent devaluation of the Japanese yen from 78 to 102 to the dollar has made SanDisk's Japanese production very competitive. SanDisk, moreover, has certain essential patents related to the design of NAND flash memory, allowing it to receive considerable royalty payments.
In short, why do you believe Micron is most likely to benefit from the changed relationship between Apple and Samsung?
American Superconductor: A Turnaround Play With Asymmetric Upside Potential [View article]
There has been no corporate news that might explain the sudden interest in AMSC. However, about two weeks ago, there was an announcement that Clovis, New Mexico had approved an industrial bond issue that would provide funds to tie together the three main electric grids in the southwest US, covering regions from Texas to southern California. It appears that AMSC will get some business from this deal, and that may be why there was, briefly, more interest in the shares.
Infrastructure investments, such as improvements to the electrical grid, can spur economic growth. But these kinds of investments generally require a government commitment to continuing investment, and that is not a sure thing in the current political climate.
One Of Exxon Mobil's Long-Term Alternative Fuel Investments: Algae [View article]
Solazyme has proven technology that is scalable. The company claims that it can produce diesel/aviation fuels profitably at $2/gal. or less. They're in no hurry to enter this market, as their other products deliver much higher margins -- oils for cosmetics and foods. In this article, the writer overestimates what ExxonMobil can accomplish and underestimates what Solazyme already is accomplishing.
Aegerion's Pricing Power Sends Shares Flying [View article]
That factor, together with the significantly greater cost of Juxtapid, could reduce demand for the drug.
Why Corning Is A Sell Above $15 And A Buy At $13 Or Less [View article]
Corning, it appears, will once again make reasonable profits from its polysilicon production for solar. Additionally, demand is once again improving (slightly) for TV displays, the business which went down most over the last few years. Finally, Corning is experiencing much greater demand for its fiber optic business, which because of overcapacity, is what caused the stock to drop many years ago.
The new glass for smartphones, tablets, and laptops, while still a relatively small business compared to TV displays, is icing on the cake.
By relying on technical analysis, which by definition does not take into account any of the fundamentals (including book value, which has been running above market value), the writer has completely missed the true value of Corning.
Apple, Android, And The Future Of The Smartphone [View article]
1. Apple's IOS survives because it works more easily and intuitively than even the latest versions of Android. The growing numbers of apps assure that this system will be in demand not only for casual browsing but for serious work (medical monitoring, inventory, flight plans, music scores, to mention just a few business applications).
2. Apple generates huge profits on downloads from the Apple store and iTunes, e-books, etc. The cash flow generated from these sources has been largely overlooked by analysts touting Intel and other competitors.
3. Samsung is the most completely vertically integrated producer of electronic products, especially those that utilize Android or compete with other systems, including IOS and Windows. Samsung, because of its vertical integration is currently the most profitable of all companies in the smartphone/tablet sector. Smaller competitors often have to buy components from Samsung at prices that guarantee a good markup for Samsung.
4. Intel and Microsoft are late in the game for mobile devices. They are playing second, or third fiddle to the largest producers of devices and related components. The large number of apps for both IOS and Android assures that these systems will remain dominant in smartphones and tablets for many years.
5. Juxtaposing this article with numerous earlier articles by the same writer reveals a hopeless bias in favor of Intel and Microsoft, without a reasonable basis. In short, this article is worthless for most investors.
Intel Won't Build Apple's Chips; It Still Makes No Sense [View article]
Clean Energy Turns Profits Into Stock Losses [View article]
It's also true that there are numerous subsidies built into the conventional gasoline and diesel fuel markets, reducing the price differential between CNG and diesel. A reduction of these mostly needless subsidies would help in the transition. Though I don't own CLNE at the moment, I've followed it for about two years and may buy some shares as fleet truck/bus demand improves.