experienced's Comments RSS Syndication from SeekingAlpha.com http://seekingalpha.comuser/234161/comments http://seekingalpha.com/article/177604-sunpower-trades-highlight-solar-s-slow-fade?source=feed#comment-801685 801685 Fri, 11 Dec 2009 11:40:21 -0500 http://seekingalpha.com/article/174735-time-to-bail-on-shale?source=feed#comment-773304 773304
There has also been some comment on the environmental impacts from the method used to extract natural gas from shale. Chesapeake already decided not to develop potential natural gas resources in areas of New York state that supply water to New York City. Potential adverse impacts may also restrict development of shale reserves in other areas.

Finally, the historic relationship between the price of natural gas and crude oil, based mainly on the amount of energy from each source, is out of line, with natural gas currently well below crude oil. All these factors justify a decision to postpone hedging until there is evidence of stronger future prices.]]> Mon, 23 Nov 2009 10:33:27 -0500
There has also been some comment on the environmental impacts from the method used to extract natural gas from shale. Chesapeake already decided not to develop potential natural gas resources in areas of New York state that supply water to New York City. Potential adverse impacts may also restrict development of shale reserves in other areas.

Finally, the historic relationship between the price of natural gas and crude oil, based mainly on the amount of energy from each source, is out of line, with natural gas currently well below crude oil. All these factors justify a decision to postpone hedging until there is evidence of stronger future prices.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/174693-is-tech-overvalued?source=feed#comment-773277 773277
Yes, there appears to be less investor sentiment in favor of tech stocks, but here again, the sentiment may be based on poorer results from a few companies, rather than poor results in general. That's why investors who rely on ETF's, with their mixture of good and bad results, are probably worse off than those who hold individual stocks with consistently strong earnings prospects.]]> Mon, 23 Nov 2009 10:22:13 -0500
Yes, there appears to be less investor sentiment in favor of tech stocks, but here again, the sentiment may be based on poorer results from a few companies, rather than poor results in general. That's why investors who rely on ETF's, with their mixture of good and bad results, are probably worse off than those who hold individual stocks with consistently strong earnings prospects.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/173163-solar-market-declines-for-first-time-ever?source=feed#comment-759350 759350
Solar also depends on financing for the consumers. The arrangement made by SunPower with Wells Fargo, for example, gives SunPower an edge over competitors.

Finally, because solar still costs more than conventional alternatives, a certain amount of subsidy is necessary and justifiable in order to reduce carbon and related emissions. While Germany and Spain may not be interested in the degree of subsidy in earlier years, enough nations, including the U.S. have renewed their subsidies, preserving an adequate growth rate.]]> Fri, 13 Nov 2009 16:49:44 -0500
Solar also depends on financing for the consumers. The arrangement made by SunPower with Wells Fargo, for example, gives SunPower an edge over competitors.

Finally, because solar still costs more than conventional alternatives, a certain amount of subsidy is necessary and justifiable in order to reduce carbon and related emissions. While Germany and Spain may not be interested in the degree of subsidy in earlier years, enough nations, including the U.S. have renewed their subsidies, preserving an adequate growth rate.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/168850-shale-gas-promises-promises-promises?source=feed#comment-732451 732451
The large amounts of water/liquid needed to extract gas from shale may lead to environmental constraints, less gas produced, and higher gas prices. On the other hand, if environmental damage is minimal and huge reserves are available, then it's likely there will be new applications for natural gas, such as widespread use in fleet vehicles. In any event, except possibly the implementation of energy conservation measures far greater than at present, the long term price of natural gas will rise.]]> Tue, 27 Oct 2009 12:04:56 -0400
The large amounts of water/liquid needed to extract gas from shale may lead to environmental constraints, less gas produced, and higher gas prices. On the other hand, if environmental damage is minimal and huge reserves are available, then it's likely there will be new applications for natural gas, such as widespread use in fleet vehicles. In any event, except possibly the implementation of energy conservation measures far greater than at present, the long term price of natural gas will rise.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/163400-climate-change-how-to-invest-for-the-possibility?source=feed#comment-690725 690725
There is no longer any scientific basis to argue that recent warming trends have no relationship to increased burning of carbon, particularly from coal and oil. Meanwhile, those who spend a lot of time trying to minimize the problem are the last to advocate doing anything. Better conservation practices, particularly in home insulation and design of communities to minimize the use of cars to get around would do more in the next 10 years to reduce CO2 than any other policy. The coal burning advocates should get their act together and promote conservation instead of trying to argue that nothing should be done to interfere with smoky coal plants.]]> Fri, 25 Sep 2009 10:34:58 -0400
There is no longer any scientific basis to argue that recent warming trends have no relationship to increased burning of carbon, particularly from coal and oil. Meanwhile, those who spend a lot of time trying to minimize the problem are the last to advocate doing anything. Better conservation practices, particularly in home insulation and design of communities to minimize the use of cars to get around would do more in the next 10 years to reduce CO2 than any other policy. The coal burning advocates should get their act together and promote conservation instead of trying to argue that nothing should be done to interfere with smoky coal plants.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/161949-energy-recovery-too-much-competition?source=feed#comment-681172 681172 Thu, 17 Sep 2009 14:51:52 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/161408-sunpower-s-rose-how-important-is-high-efficiency-in-pv?source=feed#comment-677755 677755 Tue, 15 Sep 2009 13:04:47 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/160947-plenty-of-natural-gas-exploration-and-production-companies-keep-increasing-oversupply?source=feed#comment-672309 672309
The fundamentals for oil have not changed: The rate of growth in demand, spurred by huge increases in transportation demand in China and other developing nations, is greater than the rate of growth in proven reserves. Put another way, less new oil is being discovered than is being consumed. This means the price trend for crude is up. Meanwhile, the low prices for NG, if nothing else, should provide incentives to switch to NG where NG is a viable alternative. All this ignores pollution related issues, which should provide further incentives for NG.


On Sep 11 10:31 AM Skip Olinger wrote:

> Well done article but I have a question for you and the 2 previous
> commenters.
>
> As I understand it, NG demand has fallen significantly primarily
> due to a drop in industrial demand and utility demand. Supply has
> increased as new unconventional plays have gone into production.
> So producers, who cannot just shut off wells like a light switch,
> have started to store gas in hopes of higher prices down the road.
> Storage is becoming full. Once full wells may be forced to shut down.
> Pressure in the system will fall so even pipelines won't be making
> revenue as no gas will be moving. Voila, end of the world. Do I have
> this correct?
>
> But wait, if you want to sell your gas at say $4.50 rather than $2.73
> all you would have to do is sell a futures contract for Dec delivery.
> That is 3.5 months away! There must be plenty of producers that have
> sold their production forward for winter delivery and intend of delivering.
> And, if you want $5 all you have to do is sell for June '10. What
> am I missing here?? I would appreciate some help.
>
> Also, the economy seems to be turning around a bit. That should start
> to increase industrial and utility demand. How do you see that playing
> out??
>
> Lastly, how do you see the Pickens theory play out with conversion
> to NG use away from Petroleum. I suspect that is a ways off but some
> government car fleets are now being converted?
>
> Thanks to all for your help]]> Fri, 11 Sep 2009 11:52:26 -0400
The fundamentals for oil have not changed: The rate of growth in demand, spurred by huge increases in transportation demand in China and other developing nations, is greater than the rate of growth in proven reserves. Put another way, less new oil is being discovered than is being consumed. This means the price trend for crude is up. Meanwhile, the low prices for NG, if nothing else, should provide incentives to switch to NG where NG is a viable alternative. All this ignores pollution related issues, which should provide further incentives for NG.


On Sep 11 10:31 AM Skip Olinger wrote:

> Well done article but I have a question for you and the 2 previous
> commenters.
>
> As I understand it, NG demand has fallen significantly primarily
> due to a drop in industrial demand and utility demand. Supply has
> increased as new unconventional plays have gone into production.
> So producers, who cannot just shut off wells like a light switch,
> have started to store gas in hopes of higher prices down the road.
> Storage is becoming full. Once full wells may be forced to shut down.
> Pressure in the system will fall so even pipelines won't be making
> revenue as no gas will be moving. Voila, end of the world. Do I have
> this correct?
>
> But wait, if you want to sell your gas at say $4.50 rather than $2.73
> all you would have to do is sell a futures contract for Dec delivery.
> That is 3.5 months away! There must be plenty of producers that have
> sold their production forward for winter delivery and intend of delivering.
> And, if you want $5 all you have to do is sell for June '10. What
> am I missing here?? I would appreciate some help.
>
> Also, the economy seems to be turning around a bit. That should start
> to increase industrial and utility demand. How do you see that playing
> out??
>
> Lastly, how do you see the Pickens theory play out with conversion
> to NG use away from Petroleum. I suspect that is a ways off but some
> government car fleets are now being converted?
>
> Thanks to all for your help]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/160823-megatrend-companies-summary?source=feed#comment-672228 672228 Fri, 11 Sep 2009 11:35:38 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/160336-countering-those-anti-peak-oil-types?source=feed#comment-666507 666507
A similar phenomenon is happening in the fishing industry, where the catch of certain types of fish (such as cod) is collapsing due to overfishing or environmental changes. The commons model is appropriate for each of these dilemmas.]]> Tue, 08 Sep 2009 11:32:17 -0400
A similar phenomenon is happening in the fishing industry, where the catch of certain types of fish (such as cod) is collapsing due to overfishing or environmental changes. The commons model is appropriate for each of these dilemmas.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/150256-chinese-government-will-pay-to-install-500mw-of-solar-power?source=feed#comment-598224 598224 Wed, 22 Jul 2009 13:06:10 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/146145-the-eu-stabs-apple-in-the-back?source=feed#comment-573085 573085 Fri, 03 Jul 2009 10:29:05 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/145271-intel-and-nokia-s-powerful-collaboration?source=feed#comment-562260 562260
The key issue is whether the Nokia-Intel combination can produce wireless devices that have low power requirements to compete with the Qualcomm SnapDragon chip, which is based on a lower power ARM processor. Unless one is simply playing games, a netbook or smartbook need to be on continuously, just the way a handset remains on, with sufficient battery power to make it through at least one day's usage. Intel's Atom chip certainly isn't there yet, though it might be in a few years. Meantime, chips from Qualcomm and others can fill the bill.]]> Thu, 25 Jun 2009 12:39:05 -0400
The key issue is whether the Nokia-Intel combination can produce wireless devices that have low power requirements to compete with the Qualcomm SnapDragon chip, which is based on a lower power ARM processor. Unless one is simply playing games, a netbook or smartbook need to be on continuously, just the way a handset remains on, with sufficient battery power to make it through at least one day's usage. Intel's Atom chip certainly isn't there yet, though it might be in a few years. Meantime, chips from Qualcomm and others can fill the bill.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/142357-surviving-semi-downturn-five-stocks-that-will-thrive-after-2009-part-ii?source=feed#comment-540415 540415

On Jun 10 09:53 AM JohnB wrote:

> great analysis. thanks for walking us through your thinking.]]> Wed, 10 Jun 2009 10:20:19 -0400

On Jun 10 09:53 AM JohnB wrote:

> great analysis. thanks for walking us through your thinking.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/133218-is-there-enough-natural-gas?source=feed#comment-479539 479539
Because there are a limited number of natural gas outlets for CPN vehicles, one would first want to look at practical applications, such as fleet use in a local area. Certainly under that limited alternative, the supply of natural gas would be more than adequate, and the cost, even if natural gas prices rise to twice their current level, would still be less than gasoline or diesel fuel.

As to continued use of coal, there is at least one process (developed by SASOL) that converts coal to gas at sufficiently low prices to make such an alternative worthwhile. Sasol has several CTG plants outside the U.S. Whether these plants are low enough in CO2 emissions to please everyone is a question I can't answer, but CTG gets rid of most of the pollution problems associated with coal.

One would think that with all this stimulus money being thrown at infrastructure projects, a compressed natural gas infrastructure could reasonably be added to the list of cost effective projects. I make these comments on the basis of my past research in energy alternatives and my current position as director of the oldest online investment advisory service.]]> Mon, 27 Apr 2009 14:12:31 -0400
Because there are a limited number of natural gas outlets for CPN vehicles, one would first want to look at practical applications, such as fleet use in a local area. Certainly under that limited alternative, the supply of natural gas would be more than adequate, and the cost, even if natural gas prices rise to twice their current level, would still be less than gasoline or diesel fuel.

As to continued use of coal, there is at least one process (developed by SASOL) that converts coal to gas at sufficiently low prices to make such an alternative worthwhile. Sasol has several CTG plants outside the U.S. Whether these plants are low enough in CO2 emissions to please everyone is a question I can't answer, but CTG gets rid of most of the pollution problems associated with coal.

One would think that with all this stimulus money being thrown at infrastructure projects, a compressed natural gas infrastructure could reasonably be added to the list of cost effective projects. I make these comments on the basis of my past research in energy alternatives and my current position as director of the oldest online investment advisory service.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/130627-tracking-cancer-diagnostic-and-therapeutic-stocks?source=feed#comment-461455 461455 Mon, 13 Apr 2009 10:10:40 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/110933-wireless-great-technology-cost-prohibitive?source=feed#comment-331080 331080
1. As wireless technology improves, the bandwidth required for high speed data and the speed at which data can be transmitted reduces the cost considerably when compared with present day costs.

2. An "all or nothing" approach to wireless fails to recognize certain legitimate applications for wired technology. A large corporation issuing payroll checks, for example, would be better off relying on wired technology. But smaller files that can be transmitted in a few minutes, or less, including high definition video, are likely to be most appropriate for wireless.

3. At the receiving end, as wireless devices incorporate more memory for storage of large documents, the probability increases that wireless will be the technology of choice for all but the largest files.]]> Tue, 16 Dec 2008 12:18:01 -0500
1. As wireless technology improves, the bandwidth required for high speed data and the speed at which data can be transmitted reduces the cost considerably when compared with present day costs.

2. An "all or nothing" approach to wireless fails to recognize certain legitimate applications for wired technology. A large corporation issuing payroll checks, for example, would be better off relying on wired technology. But smaller files that can be transmitted in a few minutes, or less, including high definition video, are likely to be most appropriate for wireless.

3. At the receiving end, as wireless devices incorporate more memory for storage of large documents, the probability increases that wireless will be the technology of choice for all but the largest files.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/99018-the-debate-mccain-s-insane-mortgage-proposal?source=feed#comment-276974 276974
Unless this, or something similar is done quickly, there will simply be more foreclosures, a glut of unsold homes, and reverberations throughout the credit markets. Equally bad, the precipitous drop in housing prices will lead to lower property tax assessments, leading in turn to lower local property tax revenues. As far as I can tell, the McCain plan does not really get at these problems.]]> Wed, 08 Oct 2008 12:44:34 -0400
Unless this, or something similar is done quickly, there will simply be more foreclosures, a glut of unsold homes, and reverberations throughout the credit markets. Equally bad, the precipitous drop in housing prices will lead to lower property tax assessments, leading in turn to lower local property tax revenues. As far as I can tell, the McCain plan does not really get at these problems.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/90882-natural-gas-clean-fuel-with-a-dirty-little-secret?source=feed#comment-230443 230443
Investors appear to be pricing stocks like CHK on the notion that there is too much supply (at current prices) in relation to demand. But CHK engages in very skillful hedging operations (most of the time, but not in the last quarter) that usuallly enhance earnings. In the last quarter, when gas prices rose well above their expectations, the hedging worked against CHK. Predicting future CHK earnings depends not only on the hedging operations but on the price of natural gasl.]]> Thu, 14 Aug 2008 13:58:21 -0400
Investors appear to be pricing stocks like CHK on the notion that there is too much supply (at current prices) in relation to demand. But CHK engages in very skillful hedging operations (most of the time, but not in the last quarter) that usuallly enhance earnings. In the last quarter, when gas prices rose well above their expectations, the hedging worked against CHK. Predicting future CHK earnings depends not only on the hedging operations but on the price of natural gasl.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/87641-five-great-companies-to-buy-at-a-drop?source=feed#comment-217436 217436 Tue, 29 Jul 2008 11:32:41 -0400