Caltorguy

Apples to Apples: Will History Repeat Itself as Android Gains on the iPhone?

Not sure about this. IMO - the wireless industry is currently tranforming itself to where laptops, netbooks, tablets and smartphones are all coming together, and the days of the proprietary data networks are limited. In 10 years we will all simply have data devices, supported by ultra highspeed wifi/wimax, and the need for separate (costly) networks for "cell" phones, or even the notion of having phone numbers will be history. Apple will probably have the high end of this market (with devices and platform), with MSFT, GOOG offering platforms, and a mix of hardware providers similar to today's PC market. Cable TV will be history by then too - we will all just have data accounts and everything will be on demand (as it should be now).

Will Canadian Housing Prices Continue on a Tear?

It's interesting that the median house price in Canada is now about twice that of the US (since Canada had no R/E meltdown to speak of). Of course as a Canadian, I drool at all those $80,000 homes you read about in the US languishing on the market - here that's your 20% down payment to avoid paying the mortgage insurance.

Buy and Hold Is Alive and Well

It's pretty hard to argue with the Dow that went from 41 in 1933 to 10,000 in 1999 - that's a 25,000% return, not including dividends (which average, I believe, about 3%, which probably what a bank deposit would have paid, so the 25,000% was really just very rich gravy...). Even if you look at a period like 1972 to 82, juicy yields on good stocks would have ensured a positive return.

State of the iPhone: Strong. Very Strong.

I still remember the scene from Sex in the City where Samantha hands Carrie her iPhone and she looks at the multicolored screen and says, somewhat hysterically, "I don't know what to do with this". There will continue to be a market for the squares or non-technophile, non-fashion victims and RIM fills this pretty well. Their boring enough for big-business yet pretty secure, reliable and functional. Apple will continue to do really well, but it will never have 50 or 60% of the market because it doesn't want that; it wants to be a top-right, niche product for those get it and appreciate the leading design, technology and seamless interface.

For Airplane Makers, The Sky Is Falling

If governments ever decide to take global warming seriously then high speed rail as a far preferable solution to everyone flying everywhere. Air will still make sense for long hauls but everything under 500 miles (which would include most of the Eastern Seaboard and ever, just, New York-Chicago) could be done faster and more efficiently with the kinds of 250 mph trains that are now common place in Europe. Will take significant government investment but we'd be kiidding ourselves if we said the same hasn't been true of air travel.

Debt Loads of G20 Nations: Japan, U.S. Deep in the Hole

Too bad the graphic doesn't show Canada (a G-7 and G-20 member) because we trump all those countries except Russia, which just devalued it's way out of debt.

It's What Apple's Not Doing That Has Analysts Worried

3 grand for a MacBook Pro??? A laptop with similar features from HP is 1/3 the price....how much more are people willing to pay to appear "cool"? Maybe Apple can do a co-branding deal with Hermes or Gucci....'cause they're doing well these days...

Baltic Dry Index Signaling a Market Bottom?

If some of these companies do go bankrupt, it will pay to own some of the ones that are able to stay afloat (haha!) since there will be a capacity squeeze when global trade invariably picks up again. I own a bit of DSX, and their balance sheet appears okay, and they have also suspended their dividend just to be safe. Unless we see a Great Depression type collapse in trade (which was exacerbated by protectionism), trade and shipping will come back in a big way by 2010.

Reading Apple: iPhone Sales Slightly Off, MacBook OK

AAPL is a play on the broader economy. Sure a lot of people want an iPhone but will they sign an (expensive) multi-year talk and data plan right now that the iPhone requires when they aren't sure about their job / home etc? Apple's has positioned itself a premium product in the categories it operates in and is able to command prices acccordingly but this could work against it if this recession is long and severe - I mean how many people NEED a high-end smart phone or brand new $1500 laptop? "Need" trumps "want" pretty quickly if you don't know where your next paycheque is coming from, or whether you'll have you house in 3 months (or a FICO score above 400...). This is why the whole consumer tech mkt is dead right now and may continue to be for a long time - and if AAPL goes to $50, even doubling it will only take it back to half what it was 6 months ago. Maybe, if they really have all this cash, they should pay a dividend....

Attention Gold Bugs: Hyperinflation or Deflation?

Isn't one way to "pay" off debt to inflate your way out of it? In contrast, if the Fed allows deflation to happen, won't the already huge US debt become crippling, well north of the 100% of GDP benchmark where things start to get pretty tough, and lenders start to worry? Same for corporate debt. Maybe what we should be looking at is not the 1930s but 1923...in Germany when that country essentially eliminated its war debt through inflation in the billions of %. The only people that made it through that period were those that held gold or foreign currency (which wasn't that easy to get). As for the US in 2009, trillion dollar deficits, or 7-8% of GDP don't lend themselves well to deflation.

Ten Reasons Why Gold Isn't Above $1,000

I'd be willing to be some money that in two years gold will be over $1000, oil will be $200 and the Cdn dollar will be at $1.10 US.

Apple's 'Real' Earnings: Up Almost 125%

Even if all of this is true, and it probably is, AAPL could still be trading at $70 in a week. The risk is all systemic here - Apple could have sold 20 million iPhones and it wouldn't have made a difference...

Fundamental Valuation: How Low Could We Go?

The person above who mentioned interest rates is dead on. Who the heck would buy stocks in 1982 when a bank GIC paid 15%? and government bonds well over 10% - if that was the risk free rate, of course multiples were A LOT lower than now. The issue is that now we have GICs and govt bonds yielding 2%, a real return of zero. Are people really saying that the best we'll do over the next 7 to 10 years is to preserve existing capital? If that's the case there really are going to be a lot of retirees eating cat food, or maybe nothing at all - since most pension plans govt and otherwise will be insolvent too.

Canadian Oil Sands Looks Attractive Despite Near Term Risk

Their costs are coming down - nat gas is a main input and its price has dropped from $14 to $7. AB is studying building a nuke reactor to fuel the oil sands. Let's hope they do!

Thinking About the Next Six Months

Well this is a learning experience....it IS amazing what happens to equities when both earnings estimates and multiples collapse....bubble after bubble deflates. Assets prices between 1929 and 33 dropped 90% and in many places you could buy a nice home for $1,000 by the mid 1930s...let's pray the world's central banks have something up their sleeves!