Caltorguy

Apples to Apples: Will History Repeat Itself as Android Gains on the iPhone?

Not sure about this. IMO - the wireless industry is currently tranforming itself to where laptops, netbooks, tablets and smartphones are all coming together, and the days of the proprietary data networks are limited. In 10 years we will all simply have data devices, supported by ultra highspeed wifi/wimax, and the need for separate (costly) networks for "cell" phones, or even the notion of having phone numbers will be history. Apple will probably have the high end of this market (with devices and platform), with MSFT, GOOG offering platforms, and a mix of hardware providers similar to today's PC market. Cable TV will be history by then too - we will all just have data accounts and everything will be on demand (as it should be now).

Buy and Hold Is Alive and Well

It's pretty hard to argue with the Dow that went from 41 in 1933 to 10,000 in 1999 - that's a 25,000% return, not including dividends (which average, I believe, about 3%, which probably what a bank deposit would have paid, so the 25,000% was really just very rich gravy...). Even if you look at a period like 1972 to 82, juicy yields on good stocks would have ensured a positive return.

State of the iPhone: Strong. Very Strong.

I still remember the scene from Sex in the City where Samantha hands Carrie her iPhone and she looks at the multicolored screen and says, somewhat hysterically, "I don't know what to do with this". There will continue to be a market for the squares or non-technophile, non-fashion victims and RIM fills this pretty well. Their boring enough for big-business yet pretty secure, reliable and functional. Apple will continue to do really well, but it will never have 50 or 60% of the market because it doesn't want that; it wants to be a top-right, niche product for those get it and appreciate the leading design, technology and seamless interface.

It's What Apple's Not Doing That Has Analysts Worried

3 grand for a MacBook Pro??? A laptop with similar features from HP is 1/3 the price....how much more are people willing to pay to appear "cool"? Maybe Apple can do a co-branding deal with Hermes or Gucci....'cause they're doing well these days...

Reading Apple: iPhone Sales Slightly Off, MacBook OK

AAPL is a play on the broader economy. Sure a lot of people want an iPhone but will they sign an (expensive) multi-year talk and data plan right now that the iPhone requires when they aren't sure about their job / home etc? Apple's has positioned itself a premium product in the categories it operates in and is able to command prices acccordingly but this could work against it if this recession is long and severe - I mean how many people NEED a high-end smart phone or brand new $1500 laptop? "Need" trumps "want" pretty quickly if you don't know where your next paycheque is coming from, or whether you'll have you house in 3 months (or a FICO score above 400...). This is why the whole consumer tech mkt is dead right now and may continue to be for a long time - and if AAPL goes to $50, even doubling it will only take it back to half what it was 6 months ago. Maybe, if they really have all this cash, they should pay a dividend....

Apple's 'Real' Earnings: Up Almost 125%

Even if all of this is true, and it probably is, AAPL could still be trading at $70 in a week. The risk is all systemic here - Apple could have sold 20 million iPhones and it wouldn't have made a difference...

Research in Motion Takes Hit from Component Costs and Dollar, Hints at New Product

Apparently the new Bold works seamlessly with iTunes so I'm not sure what the music issue is - it will also do great photos and video (can record video too). I still think that the data compression technology is BB's ace in the whole, and the fact that it has a keyboard that for the primary business purpose - email - makes like infinitely easier. The iPhone has apparently, after only 3 months, tapped out all of AT&T's 3G capacity - this would not be the case with the Bold. I also wonder if big business is going to be happy about providing staff with what even the AAPL fanboys acknowledge is primarily a multimedia device with a a phone attached. Companies pay for data too.

Six Reasons Why Apple's Still a Buy

AAPL is the victim of the overall market - no one is looking at fundamentals right now, it's just sell sell sell. I do think the US market will lead the global recovery in stock prices and AAPL is about as good a name as any to buy with true growth potential - the question is when -overall negative market sentiment probably could drag down the stock another 20%. Right now, my best performing stock is a railway, which is about as far away from an iPhone as you can get!

Nokia Gets No Respect Against Apple, RIM

The bigger question is whether the smartphone market will come to dominate the overall wireless market. An analyst I like made the comment that most aren't willing to see their wireless bill double (or more here in Canada where you can lease a Hyundai for about the same price as it costs to have an iPhone...) to have a mobile internet interface that the iPhone offers. You can't use it while driving or being mobile in general (and whether most airlines adopt wifi is an open question). I think you're dreaming in technicolor if you thing AAPL will get 70% of the overall wireless market, or even of the smartphone market. RIM was making smartphones 2 years before anyone even heard of an iPod, and to this day has a product that better meets the day to day use requirements of most business users, has huge loyalty, and is getting better every day. The iPhone is certainly more technically savvy, but history is littered with such "better" products that ultimately failed to win over the marketplace.

Nokia Gets No Respect Against Apple, RIM

The problem is that AAPL's 'tech dominance' has never, with the exception of the iPod (which is not an expensive product), translated into market share. How is it that the company got creamed again and again by inferior products? I think it may have to do with market positioning. Owning an Apple product says I am a tech-savvy, creative, early adopter type, which isn't a message that the mass majority cares to make about themselves. I think the iPhone will do well but it is the Cadillac in a world where most are content with Hondas and Chevys.

Apple: Great Company with Lofty Valuation - Due for Pullback

"Yep; it will be for a pull back from $300 in 2010" Interesting comment although I figure that the share price of any big bank that survives the current turmoil will probably double by 2010 as well - and pay dividends in the meantime.

Apple: Great Company with Lofty Valuation - Due for Pullback

My prediction: Apple will control 100% of every consumer electronic product category within 12 months; their stock will trade at $25,000 per share - hurry before it is too late! I mean Apple has such a great track record of turning innovation into market share...how can I be wrong?

The kind of frothy hysteria I am parodying here makes me sure AAPL is due for a pullback. Certainly its a good company and inspires fanatical loyalty among its followers but nothing goes up for ever. Anedotally I think that many of the things that worked for Apple as a leading niche innovator may work against it, culturally, as a global technology hegemon that everyone here seems to believe it will become.

Appetite for Risk? Buy Some RIMM

But isn't the benefit of RIM servers enhanced security? Isn't this a key reason business prefers RIM? And how many businesses out there will want to support both smartphones? (I'm not a tech expert but I think this would be cumbersome). My belief is that it will take some time for the iPhone to seriously penetrate business users, the way that it has/is taking a long time for Apple to penetrate business computing (outside creative industries). I don't doubt that Apple makes better products but standardization, security and cost are probably the most salient considerations of business users / IT depts today. So Apple and RIM are still targeting different markets to some degree - and RIM still has a lot of product in the pipeline (as do every other device maker). Projecting out a monthly or qtrly trend tends not to be successful way of seeing the world in 3 to 5 years. We will indeed see what happens.

Appetite for Risk? Buy Some RIMM

I think that while the iPhone is a marvel that is exactly the reason most businesses outside creative/tech oriented ones, will stay with the tried and true BB which may not do as many things but is extremely effective and simple to use as a data and voice communications device for business (and way more efficient in data use which gets the communcations cos onside). I also have trouble with this notion that Apple which has never been a communications or cell phone company can come take over the world in a year or two. They contracted out every aspect of the iPhone except the interface and device design. Apple has built a better computer for 20 years but still only has 6% of that market (up from 4% woohoo!)