Caltorguy

State of the iPhone: Strong. Very Strong.

I still remember the scene from Sex in the City where Samantha hands Carrie her iPhone and she looks at the multicolored screen and says, somewhat hysterically, "I don't know what to do with this". There will continue to be a market for the squares or non-technophile, non-fashion victims and RIM fills this pretty well. Their boring enough for big-business yet pretty secure, reliable and functional. Apple will continue to do really well, but it will never have 50 or 60% of the market because it doesn't want that; it wants to be a top-right, niche product for those get it and appreciate the leading design, technology and seamless interface.

Nokia Gets No Respect Against Apple, RIM

The bigger question is whether the smartphone market will come to dominate the overall wireless market. An analyst I like made the comment that most aren't willing to see their wireless bill double (or more here in Canada where you can lease a Hyundai for about the same price as it costs to have an iPhone...) to have a mobile internet interface that the iPhone offers. You can't use it while driving or being mobile in general (and whether most airlines adopt wifi is an open question). I think you're dreaming in technicolor if you thing AAPL will get 70% of the overall wireless market, or even of the smartphone market. RIM was making smartphones 2 years before anyone even heard of an iPod, and to this day has a product that better meets the day to day use requirements of most business users, has huge loyalty, and is getting better every day. The iPhone is certainly more technically savvy, but history is littered with such "better" products that ultimately failed to win over the marketplace.

Nokia Gets No Respect Against Apple, RIM

The problem is that AAPL's 'tech dominance' has never, with the exception of the iPod (which is not an expensive product), translated into market share. How is it that the company got creamed again and again by inferior products? I think it may have to do with market positioning. Owning an Apple product says I am a tech-savvy, creative, early adopter type, which isn't a message that the mass majority cares to make about themselves. I think the iPhone will do well but it is the Cadillac in a world where most are content with Hondas and Chevys.