Caltorguy

Buy and Hold Is Alive and Well

It's pretty hard to argue with the Dow that went from 41 in 1933 to 10,000 in 1999 - that's a 25,000% return, not including dividends (which average, I believe, about 3%, which probably what a bank deposit would have paid, so the 25,000% was really just very rich gravy...). Even if you look at a period like 1972 to 82, juicy yields on good stocks would have ensured a positive return.

Fundamental Valuation: How Low Could We Go?

The person above who mentioned interest rates is dead on. Who the heck would buy stocks in 1982 when a bank GIC paid 15%? and government bonds well over 10% - if that was the risk free rate, of course multiples were A LOT lower than now. The issue is that now we have GICs and govt bonds yielding 2%, a real return of zero. Are people really saying that the best we'll do over the next 7 to 10 years is to preserve existing capital? If that's the case there really are going to be a lot of retirees eating cat food, or maybe nothing at all - since most pension plans govt and otherwise will be insolvent too.

Wake Up America, You’re Sinking

I love all the immigration rage. Hmm...let's ponder what would happen if somehow all 12 million illegals could be deported tomorrow...and the border could be effectively sealed as all the sons and daughters of the last 300 years of immigration so richly and hypocritically desire. Wanna talk about inflation? The agriculture and service sectors would be devastated because you couldn't get staff for less than $15 an hour. The reason that the US has an illegal immigration problem is that it has no immigration policy beyond "what part of no don't you understand" - all the other english-speaking countries have pragmatic policies that use an assessment process to weed out good from bad immigrants, then integrate them economically and socially into society and MAGIC! we don't have problems with illegals - even Europe has seen the light on this to some degree. But go on with that jingoistic immigrant baiting and call me when you have 24 million illegals....