Tesa

The Good, The Bad, And the Inaccurate Oil Forecasts

It is now known what the long term prospects are, just watch.
therealnews.com/t/inde...

The crash was in fact due to privious too low prices because the growth was not sustainable. If the price of oil goes even lower, the prospects for future prices are even higher than the last peak as expensive to run facilities and wells will shut down as they will lose money to keep them going but the demand would be higher as more countries use more power due to the expected growth.

Its your choice, if you don't pay now, then you will pay later and the peak will be even higher next time and the pain would be even worse next time around. The price of oil "has" to be high enough for alternative energy to develop. There is no free production of cheap energy because you don't want to pay for it.

So remember, the lower it goes, the higher the expected peak next time will be.

$25 Oil Could Happen Before a Return to $100

There has been no reduction in demand even though USA has been in recession for a year. These comments are based on self serving projections that most likely the "big boy" traders are pumping. The same high consumption rate as usual stands but now the price is less than extraction cost. It is not like it is theirs resources and their wells that are going to shut down.

looking at November data. It is one the highest amounts ever.
tonto.eia.doe.gov/dnav...


On Dec 05 09:36 AM fatpitch2 wrote:

> I keep trying to figure out how much of the demand is discretionary
> and will be extinguished by consumers turning down thermostats and
> etc...

$25 Oil Could Happen Before a Return to $100

You assume that oil producers are stupid. They is no over supply of oil although the world economies are faltering because even at the peak, oil producers couldn't produce more if you recall and that is why the prices went up. There is no capacity to produce more oil. And there is even less incentive to produce more oil as the margins will becoming negative for the expensive wells.

The desire to manipulate the commodity prices to collapse their options values is where the demand is. The arguments that are being used to collapse these prices are cooked up to justify these actions.


On Dec 06 03:35 AM devich wrote:

> They have (relatively) big
> and (relatively fast) growing populations and much govt spending
> to keep the people content. They think if they cut production they'll
> gross less than if they keep production high.
>

Energy Investing: Scenarios for a Turnaround

Energy production is never cheap and no magical cheap energy will fall from the skies given cheap oil. Oil is the results of trillions of years of stored sun energy from the sun. To make energy that is equivalent is realistic but to produce it cheaper is nothing but fantasy. Once the expensive oil wells shut down, then you will see astronomical prices and they will shut down. Those that play this cheap oil or cheap energy game are playing it for trading and they are taking it down to crap the options and make money. Most mining operations are already shutting down. Think about it, what comes after that.

Energy Investing: Scenarios for a Turnaround

The price of oil is now way bellow the extraction cost in many regions. This is not the 90s nor the early 2000s, there is far less oil underground and to believe what is left that will extracted will be costing 50$ is silly like the rest of what wall-street have led the population into. One stupid thing after another because they are not using fundamentals as the basis for their decision but rather they play with numbers till they create crisis. The mass shutting down of expensive wells are eminent now and those oil wells that will be getting shut down and then will lose capacity and then you will see astronomical oil prices in midst of a recession.