BiotechBull

Wyeth and Elan Take Hits on Bad Trials

I am not impressed that you "called" the negatively perceived data based on top-line resutls that essetially gave you a good picture of yesterday's data 2 weeks ago.

What is striking is that you lack a fundamental understanding of drug development--all pipeline programs are evaluated by drug companies based on their NPV. That said, bapineuzumab addresses a market with an enormously high unmet need and prevalence--and inherently has an attractive NPV--so would you "gamble" $100-$200mm on a phase 3 with the potential (>67% probability of success based on industry standards) of generating revenue >=$1B?

All this drug has to do is show that it won't kill anybody (deaths in study were not treatment related) and demonstrate some efficacy in ApoE4 non-carriers and it will sail through FDA approval and see rapid uptake in the AD market as either a monotherapy or combination with current drugs (that produce minimal benefits for patients).

The bottom line--is that the data didn't impress the investment community (and yourself)--because so many forecasts out there were >$10B.

Bapineuzumab still has a much better than average chance of becoming a blockbuster drug and Wye/Eln will be laughing in a few years when this thing is launched.................