AuGod!'s Comments RSS Syndication from SeekingAlpha.com http://seekingalpha.comuser/235197/comments http://seekingalpha.com/article/160240-china-diversifying-out-of-u-s-dollars-bullish-for-gold?source=feed#comment-665938 665938 Tue, 08 Sep 2009 07:34:13 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/160262-gold-is-still-the-opportunity-of-a-lifetime?source=feed#comment-665229 665229 Mon, 07 Sep 2009 12:27:17 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/160175-why-you-should-have-some-gold-in-your-portfolio?source=feed#comment-663941 663941 Sun, 06 Sep 2009 11:09:47 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/159711-two-good-economics-books-spin-free-economics-animal-spirits?source=feed#comment-663450 663450 Now we're getting somewhere. Maybe someone should write an article entitled: "AMERICA: Zero, Infinity and Applied Keynesian Economics".

And what about zero = 0 anyway? Imagine, an infinite number system predicated on "nothing".

In a final word I will thank those who engaged me here by citing the logician John Myhill, who was inspired by Gödel to declare, "No non-poetic account of reality can be complete." ]]> Sat, 05 Sep 2009 18:47:38 -0400 Now we're getting somewhere. Maybe someone should write an article entitled: "AMERICA: Zero, Infinity and Applied Keynesian Economics".

And what about zero = 0 anyway? Imagine, an infinite number system predicated on "nothing".

In a final word I will thank those who engaged me here by citing the logician John Myhill, who was inspired by Gödel to declare, "No non-poetic account of reality can be complete." ]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/159711-two-good-economics-books-spin-free-economics-animal-spirits?source=feed#comment-663301 663301
www.econlib.org/librar...

Since I placed a Wiki link to criticisms of the so called "Austrian School" in my first post, this is added for balance. Here also is a good article from just before Obama's inauguration, on the Chicago School, Milton and a bunch of other economic noteworthies.

www.bloomberg.com/apps...

Have a nice weekend.


]]> Sat, 05 Sep 2009 15:21:56 -0400
www.econlib.org/librar...

Since I placed a Wiki link to criticisms of the so called "Austrian School" in my first post, this is added for balance. Here also is a good article from just before Obama's inauguration, on the Chicago School, Milton and a bunch of other economic noteworthies.

www.bloomberg.com/apps...

Have a nice weekend.


]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/159711-two-good-economics-books-spin-free-economics-animal-spirits?source=feed#comment-663269 663269
2+2=5

2+2 = 2+2+0

correct? right.

Now according to Robins Lemma proof
Let x be a non-zero number, and set y=x. Thus:


x = y
x^2 = xy
x^2-y^2 = xy-y^2
(x+y)(x-y) = y(x-y)
x+y = y
2y = y
2 = 1
1 = 0

Now since 2+2 = 2+2+0 and we apply the lemma proof so that 0 = 1, 2+2+0 = 2+2+1 =5

THEREFORE
2+2 = 5

SO .. do I get the job as the nation's banker? By the way, I plagiarized the above equation from an internet source so am not "responsible" if it is proven incorrect. I promise to buy pencils with very large erasers attached if I get the job and will adopt "neo-Keynesianisms" in all of my economic decision-making because I can't think for myself.. ]]> Sat, 05 Sep 2009 14:22:14 -0400
2+2=5

2+2 = 2+2+0

correct? right.

Now according to Robins Lemma proof
Let x be a non-zero number, and set y=x. Thus:


x = y
x^2 = xy
x^2-y^2 = xy-y^2
(x+y)(x-y) = y(x-y)
x+y = y
2y = y
2 = 1
1 = 0

Now since 2+2 = 2+2+0 and we apply the lemma proof so that 0 = 1, 2+2+0 = 2+2+1 =5

THEREFORE
2+2 = 5

SO .. do I get the job as the nation's banker? By the way, I plagiarized the above equation from an internet source so am not "responsible" if it is proven incorrect. I promise to buy pencils with very large erasers attached if I get the job and will adopt "neo-Keynesianisms" in all of my economic decision-making because I can't think for myself.. ]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/159711-two-good-economics-books-spin-free-economics-animal-spirits?source=feed#comment-663150 663150
EG: see criticisms: en.wikipedia.org/wiki/...]]> Sat, 05 Sep 2009 12:02:35 -0400
EG: see criticisms: en.wikipedia.org/wiki/...]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/159987-is-the-gold-dollar-relationship-breaking-down?source=feed#comment-662036 662036
The relationship of the U.S. dollar to physical gold is simple enough to understand. The gold SPOT market is in U.S. dollar so its price is in U.S. dollars. When the dollar rises vis other currencies it makes the metal more expensive in those currencies. The opposite applies equally. As for the U.S. dollar as Reserve Currency, I think it is safe enough. A reserve currency is just a trade tool, a medium of exchange. As a forex investment the U.S. dollar is another matter entirely. Those long and short the dollar have different volatility worries than those managing gazillions in foreign reserves. Despite any blustering by the latter. As an example, note the Chinese purchase of U.S.$ 50 billion in IMF SDRs, which is about 32 billion in SDRs. That is a drop in the ocean in the currency world, but worthy of note is that SDRs are interest-bearing IMF assets based on a basket of four international currencies: the Japanese yen, the euro, the British pound and (drum roll please) the U.S. dollar. It is a means of diversification while at the same time supporting the IMF's need for about 10 times that number to be used to help troubled economies. For the Chinese seeking diversification, the SDRs represent a relatively stable and secure investment not an abandonment of the U.S. dollar. Also worthy of note is that the Chinese government is recommending its citizens buy gold. Now why would that be? I think we all know.


]]> Fri, 04 Sep 2009 12:50:35 -0400
The relationship of the U.S. dollar to physical gold is simple enough to understand. The gold SPOT market is in U.S. dollar so its price is in U.S. dollars. When the dollar rises vis other currencies it makes the metal more expensive in those currencies. The opposite applies equally. As for the U.S. dollar as Reserve Currency, I think it is safe enough. A reserve currency is just a trade tool, a medium of exchange. As a forex investment the U.S. dollar is another matter entirely. Those long and short the dollar have different volatility worries than those managing gazillions in foreign reserves. Despite any blustering by the latter. As an example, note the Chinese purchase of U.S.$ 50 billion in IMF SDRs, which is about 32 billion in SDRs. That is a drop in the ocean in the currency world, but worthy of note is that SDRs are interest-bearing IMF assets based on a basket of four international currencies: the Japanese yen, the euro, the British pound and (drum roll please) the U.S. dollar. It is a means of diversification while at the same time supporting the IMF's need for about 10 times that number to be used to help troubled economies. For the Chinese seeking diversification, the SDRs represent a relatively stable and secure investment not an abandonment of the U.S. dollar. Also worthy of note is that the Chinese government is recommending its citizens buy gold. Now why would that be? I think we all know.


]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/159833-money-supply-the-myth-of-hyperinflation?source=feed#comment-660985 660985 Thu, 03 Sep 2009 18:18:13 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/159633-a-warning-to-america-from-the-east?source=feed#comment-660141 660141
I take your point Karl, but think GDP was 13.8 trillion. Now you can probably knock ten percent off of that.
]]> Thu, 03 Sep 2009 09:49:21 -0400
I take your point Karl, but think GDP was 13.8 trillion. Now you can probably knock ten percent off of that.
]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/159767-the-market-valuation-and-future-earnings?source=feed#comment-659908 659908
"Mathematically, there are only two ways for a ratio of this form to have a negative value:
1.The numerator falls below zero
2.The denominator falls below zero.
In the case of the P/E ratio, it is impossible for the numerator to fall below zero because this represents the price of the asset. However, the denominator, which is equal to the earnings of the company, can become negative. EPS values below zero mean that the company is losing money and is the reason why it is possible to have a negative P/E ratio.

Negative EPS numbers are usually reported as "not applicable" for quarters in which a company reported a loss. Investors buying a company with a negative P/E should be aware that they are buying a share of a company that has been losing money per share of its stock." (End quote)

So, I ask two questions.: What are the implications of this? Does it matter? ]]> Thu, 03 Sep 2009 08:00:39 -0400
"Mathematically, there are only two ways for a ratio of this form to have a negative value:
1.The numerator falls below zero
2.The denominator falls below zero.
In the case of the P/E ratio, it is impossible for the numerator to fall below zero because this represents the price of the asset. However, the denominator, which is equal to the earnings of the company, can become negative. EPS values below zero mean that the company is losing money and is the reason why it is possible to have a negative P/E ratio.

Negative EPS numbers are usually reported as "not applicable" for quarters in which a company reported a loss. Investors buying a company with a negative P/E should be aware that they are buying a share of a company that has been losing money per share of its stock." (End quote)

So, I ask two questions.: What are the implications of this? Does it matter? ]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/159765-bernie-madoff-was-almost-sec-chairman?source=feed#comment-659895 659895 Thu, 03 Sep 2009 07:51:18 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/151677-recession-a-buzzkill-for-alcohol-industry?source=feed#comment-659301 659301
realbeerlover wrote:
"Whole crap augod! you've been duped, major canadian beers are just as flavorless as american beer, and NO, canadian beer is not any stronger than US beer" ]]> Wed, 02 Sep 2009 18:58:11 -0400
realbeerlover wrote:
"Whole crap augod! you've been duped, major canadian beers are just as flavorless as american beer, and NO, canadian beer is not any stronger than US beer" ]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/159200-is-a-crash-impending?source=feed#comment-659076 659076 Wed, 02 Sep 2009 17:00:45 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/158923-gold-four-reasons-to-expect-september-gains?source=feed#comment-658751 658751
Well today (September 2, 2009 2:08PM EST) Gold Spot is - bid/ask 976.30 - 977.30 which means - well you can do the math. Yesterday it was around USD 950 oz. What I am reading from Adrian's article, is that this could go up or down depending on "hot money" and not the usual flux fundamentals due to India's buying season etc, the latter notably down over previous years. That "driver" from investments is a dynamic which portends high volatility. So watch your timing. All obvious I know.

I am long gold bullion so a day's ride up or down is of no real consequence except delaying a purchase of bullion until the smoke settles a bit. ]]> Wed, 02 Sep 2009 14:19:51 -0400
Well today (September 2, 2009 2:08PM EST) Gold Spot is - bid/ask 976.30 - 977.30 which means - well you can do the math. Yesterday it was around USD 950 oz. What I am reading from Adrian's article, is that this could go up or down depending on "hot money" and not the usual flux fundamentals due to India's buying season etc, the latter notably down over previous years. That "driver" from investments is a dynamic which portends high volatility. So watch your timing. All obvious I know.

I am long gold bullion so a day's ride up or down is of no real consequence except delaying a purchase of bullion until the smoke settles a bit. ]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/159355-the-non-stimulating-stimulus-bill?source=feed#comment-656953 656953
But instead of looking at America as IOUSA I choose to see it as in a state of profound imbalance. Such imbalances, like bubbles and black swans are inevitable in a credit based economy predicated on continued expansion to prosper. For good or ill, we can thank Keynesian economics for some of that but also growth in developing countries and globalization itself together with over-indulgent domestic consumerism and corporatism to feed it. So, what the economy needs is a "means" to expand and therein lay the green potential if not shoots quite yet. But and a big BUT it is .. "expansion and/or growth" need not lie in the same direction presently taken. Sure, that which is good and can be saved of the past should be prserved and cherished, while different paths which are available should be explored as well. In my opinion the "means" will come from "We the People" not Washington.

I've read that household savings are up, some say as much as 7%. Some say that is bad because we need to spend ... but on what? More goods from China, India etc.? Sure they service the U.S. markets on a Most Favored Nation basis or not and should not be faulted for it, even though many see it as dumping cheaps goods into an unquenchable appetite for such. (Hell the cocain industry would be nothing if not for America.) The chaos which attends grappling with the unknowable will pass with time as our knowledge grows and with lessons learned, but health will return unless you collectively are buying into a loser like The Titanic or maybe widgets. Such huge problems will likely outlive the Obama administration. ... But we see that people with money are spending more wisely and as needed not in such a profligate manner. Is that a good thing?

The bottom line is, if you live in a widget economy vested in widgets and want to manufacture widgets cheaper than it can be done in a hyper-populated highly unemployed nation like China or India then you must have pay your own workers much less. But how to do so in an economy where it is all the more expensive for those workers to live? Well .. housing is becoming cheaper but has a way to go yet to rid itself of the over-exhuberance of the past. Speaking of housing who really likes small lots lined up like tombstones in filthy criminal infested neighborhoods anyway? Maybe a new model for human habitation will come from this. But can that come, can anything really progressive and healing and productive and sustainable come if we commit ouselves soley to maintaining what has brought us to this point?

The unspeakably draconian legislation to promote this would have Washington Senators at war with each other not to mention those others vested in the status (widget) quo. So back to widgets. Maybe we can make better widgets than the competiton and justify a higher price and thus afford to pay our American workers what they need to live well and prosper. But wait .. are we not the main users of widgets? Maybe we can do away with widgets altogether if we really try and make something more ingenius in terms of functional utility. The signs of great change are all around us and "innovation" has always been the hallmark of Americans. Nothing less will do. No President can do it. This is a challenge for the American people not Congress. Ask yourself what happened first, America or the American government? The people created the nation then the government. America expanded and prospered, now it approaches the limits of growth but government sees no such boundaries. Government will, with all the best intentions I'm sure, turn America into a vast trailor park or welfare state. Why? Because they don't know (nobody does know) how to restore America once it is lost.

Restoring growth means allowing sufficient time to properly diagnose the extent of the malady then each patient making his or her own decision. Recall that when the Industrial Revolution, after considerable chaos, finally put paid to the feudal system it involved much pain and suffering. But progress would not be denied and in the end, arguably, more people benefitted than lost in the bargain. Here and now we at least see the impending change which will soon be upon us. Yes there are tough choices to be made. And this time your government Leviathan as it is, can cushion you a bit. The government wont say it - they can't - but you can all on an individual basis make those changes to your lives that will at least lead you to the terra firma of knowing your own viability. Then you will prevail. Yes you can.

It is a bit like the old joke about : "How many Psychiatrists does it take to change a lightbulb? The answer: Only one ... but the lightbulb has to really want to change." ]]> Tue, 01 Sep 2009 14:59:51 -0400
But instead of looking at America as IOUSA I choose to see it as in a state of profound imbalance. Such imbalances, like bubbles and black swans are inevitable in a credit based economy predicated on continued expansion to prosper. For good or ill, we can thank Keynesian economics for some of that but also growth in developing countries and globalization itself together with over-indulgent domestic consumerism and corporatism to feed it. So, what the economy needs is a "means" to expand and therein lay the green potential if not shoots quite yet. But and a big BUT it is .. "expansion and/or growth" need not lie in the same direction presently taken. Sure, that which is good and can be saved of the past should be prserved and cherished, while different paths which are available should be explored as well. In my opinion the "means" will come from "We the People" not Washington.

I've read that household savings are up, some say as much as 7%. Some say that is bad because we need to spend ... but on what? More goods from China, India etc.? Sure they service the U.S. markets on a Most Favored Nation basis or not and should not be faulted for it, even though many see it as dumping cheaps goods into an unquenchable appetite for such. (Hell the cocain industry would be nothing if not for America.) The chaos which attends grappling with the unknowable will pass with time as our knowledge grows and with lessons learned, but health will return unless you collectively are buying into a loser like The Titanic or maybe widgets. Such huge problems will likely outlive the Obama administration. ... But we see that people with money are spending more wisely and as needed not in such a profligate manner. Is that a good thing?

The bottom line is, if you live in a widget economy vested in widgets and want to manufacture widgets cheaper than it can be done in a hyper-populated highly unemployed nation like China or India then you must have pay your own workers much less. But how to do so in an economy where it is all the more expensive for those workers to live? Well .. housing is becoming cheaper but has a way to go yet to rid itself of the over-exhuberance of the past. Speaking of housing who really likes small lots lined up like tombstones in filthy criminal infested neighborhoods anyway? Maybe a new model for human habitation will come from this. But can that come, can anything really progressive and healing and productive and sustainable come if we commit ouselves soley to maintaining what has brought us to this point?

The unspeakably draconian legislation to promote this would have Washington Senators at war with each other not to mention those others vested in the status (widget) quo. So back to widgets. Maybe we can make better widgets than the competiton and justify a higher price and thus afford to pay our American workers what they need to live well and prosper. But wait .. are we not the main users of widgets? Maybe we can do away with widgets altogether if we really try and make something more ingenius in terms of functional utility. The signs of great change are all around us and "innovation" has always been the hallmark of Americans. Nothing less will do. No President can do it. This is a challenge for the American people not Congress. Ask yourself what happened first, America or the American government? The people created the nation then the government. America expanded and prospered, now it approaches the limits of growth but government sees no such boundaries. Government will, with all the best intentions I'm sure, turn America into a vast trailor park or welfare state. Why? Because they don't know (nobody does know) how to restore America once it is lost.

Restoring growth means allowing sufficient time to properly diagnose the extent of the malady then each patient making his or her own decision. Recall that when the Industrial Revolution, after considerable chaos, finally put paid to the feudal system it involved much pain and suffering. But progress would not be denied and in the end, arguably, more people benefitted than lost in the bargain. Here and now we at least see the impending change which will soon be upon us. Yes there are tough choices to be made. And this time your government Leviathan as it is, can cushion you a bit. The government wont say it - they can't - but you can all on an individual basis make those changes to your lives that will at least lead you to the terra firma of knowing your own viability. Then you will prevail. Yes you can.

It is a bit like the old joke about : "How many Psychiatrists does it take to change a lightbulb? The answer: Only one ... but the lightbulb has to really want to change." ]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/159361-bond-expert-tuesday-outlook?source=feed#comment-656195 656195
Remember that the crossing of the Red Sea was if nothing else, well timed. ]]> Tue, 01 Sep 2009 10:13:48 -0400
Remember that the crossing of the Red Sea was if nothing else, well timed. ]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/158930-stay-away-from-aig-barron-s?source=feed#comment-655720 655720
There now, ... everyone should be happy.

whoops .... you mean there's more?? ]]> Tue, 01 Sep 2009 00:52:30 -0400
There now, ... everyone should be happy.

whoops .... you mean there's more?? ]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/159194-the-renminbi-as-a-reserve-currency-part-1?source=feed#comment-655347 655347 Mon, 31 Aug 2009 17:13:41 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/159225-today-in-commodities-another-month-bites-the-dust?source=feed#comment-655310 655310 Mon, 31 Aug 2009 16:47:28 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/151677-recession-a-buzzkill-for-alcohol-industry?source=feed#comment-655185 655185 Mon, 31 Aug 2009 15:07:06 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/158820-4-reasons-investors-shouldn-t-rely-on-fixed-income-etfs?source=feed#comment-654398 654398
"Do you think that ETFs should always be protected with Puts?

In words of one syllable or less - NO! Options can be a handy tool and are useful for several things - but should not ALWAYS be used for anything no more than a hammer should be used for anything that needs a tool of any kind.

If you treat your portfolio as a true portfolio rather than a group of individual investments - options are not needed for this purpose. For instance, my portfolio is 34% Bonds, 16% Gold and Silver (represented by CEF) and 50% Dividend-Paying Stocks and MLPs.
These ALL move in low correlation with each other. When one of them gets out-of-balance within the portfolio - I re-balance to correct it. I buy more of what is lower and (unless I am adding enough cash already - I still add cash monthly) sell some of what is higher to make the difference. This has the advantage of forcing me to sell high and buy low without using options. I check to see if the portfolio needs re-balancing every 2 weeks. Doing this also means that I do not need to check the portfolio daily (Although I do most of the time anyway.) - checking it every 2 weeks is enough in just about any market. It works well for me. Think about it."]]> Mon, 31 Aug 2009 09:18:55 -0400
"Do you think that ETFs should always be protected with Puts?

In words of one syllable or less - NO! Options can be a handy tool and are useful for several things - but should not ALWAYS be used for anything no more than a hammer should be used for anything that needs a tool of any kind.

If you treat your portfolio as a true portfolio rather than a group of individual investments - options are not needed for this purpose. For instance, my portfolio is 34% Bonds, 16% Gold and Silver (represented by CEF) and 50% Dividend-Paying Stocks and MLPs.
These ALL move in low correlation with each other. When one of them gets out-of-balance within the portfolio - I re-balance to correct it. I buy more of what is lower and (unless I am adding enough cash already - I still add cash monthly) sell some of what is higher to make the difference. This has the advantage of forcing me to sell high and buy low without using options. I check to see if the portfolio needs re-balancing every 2 weeks. Doing this also means that I do not need to check the portfolio daily (Although I do most of the time anyway.) - checking it every 2 weeks is enough in just about any market. It works well for me. Think about it."]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/159031-marijuana-lsd-cocaine-now-legal-in-mexico-will-the-economy-benefit?source=feed#comment-653891 653891 Sun, 30 Aug 2009 19:13:44 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/158994-job-losses-are-not-the-problem?source=feed#comment-653759 653759 Sun, 30 Aug 2009 16:06:17 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/158932-friday-wrap-this-market-s-running-on-empty?source=feed#comment-653559 653559 Sun, 30 Aug 2009 13:51:42 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/158820-4-reasons-investors-shouldn-t-rely-on-fixed-income-etfs?source=feed#comment-652672 652672
Do you think that ETFs should always be protected with Puts?

I am also curious about Gold ETFs and the strategy sketched below as I read today that while a dip is probable " ... gold is expected to break out to the upside and embark on a significant uptrend soon, so our strategy is to go long gold, possibly gold ETFs, and selected gold stocks and to protect these positions with cheap Puts, but the possibility also exists for skilled traders to go for a straddle option strategy, the idea being that the gains on the Calls should far exceed the losses on the Puts, the Puts being bought as insurance in case gold breaks down - if it does the Puts should be liquidated once they have made sufficient gains to cover the cost of the Calls. This strategy, which assumes the Puts are not being used to protect long stock positions, could be very profitable indeed in a whipsaw situation, as if the Puts are sold when they have gained enough to cover the cost of the Calls, and the market then rapidly reverses to the upside, which is what we would expect, the Calls will have been obtained for nothing." (Thanks to Clive Maund)

Worth another moment or two perhaps, is his conclusion: (again thanks to Clive)

"To conclude: the time is thought to be ripe to go flat out long gold and gold related investments. This is a train you can and should board BEFORE it starts to leave the station. However, there remains the risk that gold could instead break to the downside first but if it should do so there is thought to be a high chance that it will be the handiwork of Big Money deliberately shaking small investors out before a breakout to new highs. Although the gold COT did show a marked improvement last week, Commercial short and Large Spec long positions are still at a higher level than we would like to see ahead of an upside breakout. The latest Silver COT in contrast shows a marked increase in Commercial short positions and Large Spec long positions, adding weight to the argument that we had earlier set out to the effect that Big Money may be planning to ambush the little guy before the Precious Metals start their next major uptrend. Accordingly long gold, ETF, and stock positions should be protected by out-of-the-money Puts (ETFs should in any event be protected with Puts), which are or should be cheap at this time due to the recent low volatility, which need not be in the same security - for example GLD Puts can be used to protect bullion. Straddle option positions are very attractive at this time for traders with the appropriate level of experience and understanding as gold has essentially been in a giant trading range for 20 months, and is approaching the apex of a 6-month long Triangle, making a big move probable soon. In the event of a sharp drop the Put side should be sold once the cost of the Calls is covered - the Calls are then free."

Thnk you for your time and courtesy.]]> Sat, 29 Aug 2009 17:14:26 -0400
Do you think that ETFs should always be protected with Puts?

I am also curious about Gold ETFs and the strategy sketched below as I read today that while a dip is probable " ... gold is expected to break out to the upside and embark on a significant uptrend soon, so our strategy is to go long gold, possibly gold ETFs, and selected gold stocks and to protect these positions with cheap Puts, but the possibility also exists for skilled traders to go for a straddle option strategy, the idea being that the gains on the Calls should far exceed the losses on the Puts, the Puts being bought as insurance in case gold breaks down - if it does the Puts should be liquidated once they have made sufficient gains to cover the cost of the Calls. This strategy, which assumes the Puts are not being used to protect long stock positions, could be very profitable indeed in a whipsaw situation, as if the Puts are sold when they have gained enough to cover the cost of the Calls, and the market then rapidly reverses to the upside, which is what we would expect, the Calls will have been obtained for nothing." (Thanks to Clive Maund)

Worth another moment or two perhaps, is his conclusion: (again thanks to Clive)

"To conclude: the time is thought to be ripe to go flat out long gold and gold related investments. This is a train you can and should board BEFORE it starts to leave the station. However, there remains the risk that gold could instead break to the downside first but if it should do so there is thought to be a high chance that it will be the handiwork of Big Money deliberately shaking small investors out before a breakout to new highs. Although the gold COT did show a marked improvement last week, Commercial short and Large Spec long positions are still at a higher level than we would like to see ahead of an upside breakout. The latest Silver COT in contrast shows a marked increase in Commercial short positions and Large Spec long positions, adding weight to the argument that we had earlier set out to the effect that Big Money may be planning to ambush the little guy before the Precious Metals start their next major uptrend. Accordingly long gold, ETF, and stock positions should be protected by out-of-the-money Puts (ETFs should in any event be protected with Puts), which are or should be cheap at this time due to the recent low volatility, which need not be in the same security - for example GLD Puts can be used to protect bullion. Straddle option positions are very attractive at this time for traders with the appropriate level of experience and understanding as gold has essentially been in a giant trading range for 20 months, and is approaching the apex of a 6-month long Triangle, making a big move probable soon. In the event of a sharp drop the Put side should be sold once the cost of the Calls is covered - the Calls are then free."

Thnk you for your time and courtesy.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/158803-reviewing-our-january-2009-market-predictions?source=feed#comment-652592 652592
I am long gold bullion.

Good luck and astute trading! ]]> Sat, 29 Aug 2009 14:41:54 -0400
I am long gold bullion.

Good luck and astute trading! ]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/158822-beer-free-markets-and-emerging-economies?source=feed#comment-652496 652496 The guy from Coors says, "I'd like the only beer made with Rocky Mountain spring water, give me a Coors." He gets it. The guy from Molson sits down and says, "Give me a Coke."

The bartender is a little taken aback, but gives him what he ordered. The other brewery presidents look over at him and ask, "Why aren't you drinking a Molson's?"

The Molson president replies, "Well, I figured if you guys aren't drinking beer, neither would I."]]> Sat, 29 Aug 2009 13:27:03 -0400 The guy from Coors says, "I'd like the only beer made with Rocky Mountain spring water, give me a Coors." He gets it. The guy from Molson sits down and says, "Give me a Coke."

The bartender is a little taken aback, but gives him what he ordered. The other brewery presidents look over at him and ask, "Why aren't you drinking a Molson's?"

The Molson president replies, "Well, I figured if you guys aren't drinking beer, neither would I."]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/158926-pace-of-insider-sales-continues-to-escalate?source=feed#comment-652190 652190 A) Cash? (B) Arable land? (C) Gold bullion? (D) Anything associated with health care? (E) Tin foil hats, bunkers, tins of SPAM, AK47s and ammo? The first three have merit. As for the rest, Warren Buffett seems to like health care stuff and there are those who are and have been for some time, solidly committed to the option (E). I had a decision to make in 06 and selected (C) gold bullion and frankly have not since found an alternative which would let me sleep better despite dips and gloomy projections about it. I have abandoned the general market because it is a shell/shill game. ]]> Sat, 29 Aug 2009 09:32:10 -0400 A) Cash? (B) Arable land? (C) Gold bullion? (D) Anything associated with health care? (E) Tin foil hats, bunkers, tins of SPAM, AK47s and ammo? The first three have merit. As for the rest, Warren Buffett seems to like health care stuff and there are those who are and have been for some time, solidly committed to the option (E). I had a decision to make in 06 and selected (C) gold bullion and frankly have not since found an alternative which would let me sleep better despite dips and gloomy projections about it. I have abandoned the general market because it is a shell/shill game. ]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/158925-sobering-stat-arms-index-indicates-market-is-at-peak-not-bottom?source=feed#comment-652160 652160 Sat, 29 Aug 2009 09:00:37 -0400