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  • Dreamworks Animation Prepares For Box Office Hiatus But First Invites Audiences To Go 'Home' [View article]
    Entertainment Oracle,

    You might want to update your estimates.
    Mar 29, 2015. 10:45 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Transocean Tops Credit Default Swap Trading Volume [View article]
    Retail equity investors rarely understand how the high yield debt market works. This article does nothing to enlighten them.
    Feb 19, 2015. 02:11 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why I'm Long SodaStream [View article]
    Hey Seth, you know quite a bit about SODA, which is great if you want people to subscribe to your research. But your snarky and rhetorical answers are a put off.
    Dec 18, 2014. 09:12 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Why I'm Long SodaStream [View article]
    Yes, went through and read a lot of Seth's previous research and commentary on SODA. He has done some excellent work. Thanks
    Dec 7, 2014. 10:25 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Why I'm Long SodaStream [View article]
    What declaration did I make? I'm neither long nor short SODA, just started looking at it.

    It seems like a somewhat interesting story, we use the product at home and like it, but realize its not for everyone. Sodastream Pro doesn't really make sense for restaurants.
    Dec 5, 2014. 07:30 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why I'm Long SodaStream [View article]
    Whatsup, that makes sense. Sodastream Pro doesn't really sound like a viable business, sounds like a drain...Probably why Whitney isn't highlighting it.

    Seth, do you know how much Sodastream Pro has cost / is costing SODA?

    If they re-organized and got rid of Sodasteream Pro, how much would margins/ earnings go up?
    Dec 5, 2014. 10:52 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why I'm Long SodaStream [View article]
    Didn't notice Sodastream Professional mentioned in Whitney's note. Is it a large, relevant, growing part of the business?
    Dec 4, 2014. 09:41 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Why I'm Long SodaStream [View article]
    Have you ever worked in a restaurant? They have huge CO2 canisters (basically a soda stream but bigger) usually set up in the basement fridge, next to kegs of beer. Restaurants purchase syrup from Pepsi and they deliver drinks via the 'guns' behind the bar or from machines behind the counter.
    Dec 3, 2014. 03:54 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Frannie Short Interest Is Skyrocketing [View article]
    Not sure, but maybe the increased short interest in FNMA/FMCC could be arbitragers buying the preferred and selling the stock.
    Nov 15, 2014. 09:48 AM | 6 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • An Alternative View Of Netflix [View article]
    HoC reported production cost: $100MM for 26 - 1 hour episodes.

    Here was an article on the economics before House of Cards received massive 'critical acclaim'.
    Nov 5, 2014. 10:30 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • An Alternative View Of Netflix [View article]
    eenk, some independent polling has been done to help figure out HOC viewership conundrum:

    Maybe this will shed some light, seems like more then a few people are watching.
    Nov 5, 2014. 11:04 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • An Alternative View Of Netflix [View article]
    "Cainiget, I'm saying it like that to make a point. Netflix wants to call a show a hit, I'm going to call a show a flop. "

    Sounds like you just want to be argumentative, so happy investing and good luck with your screenwriting career.
    Nov 4, 2014. 10:54 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • An Alternative View Of Netflix [View article]
    This is the definition of television success:
    For its first season, House of Cards received nine Primetime Emmy Award nominations, becoming the first original online-only web television series to receive major Emmy nominations. Among its nine nominations were Outstanding Drama Series, Outstanding Lead Actor in a Drama Series for Kevin Spacey, Outstanding Lead Actress in a Drama Series for Robin Wright, and Outstanding Directing for a Drama Series for David Fincher. The show also earned four Golden Globe Award nominations and Wright won the Golden Globe Award for Best Actress – Television Series Drama to be the first major acting award for an online-only web television series. For its second season, the series received 13 Primetime Emmy Award nominations.

    Do we need to go into "Orange is the New Black"?

    So you don't believe Netflix can keep track of what shows their members watch? how long they watch for? what time they watch? if they binge watch? what day of the week they watch? what actors they look for? what genre they are interested in? If they enjoy television programs or films?

    Look up what an "HTTP cookie" is...
    Nov 4, 2014. 09:56 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • An Alternative View Of Netflix [View article]
    eenk, I look at the stock and say VERY OVERVALUED and think being short NFLX is the right trade. So you probably shouldn't get so twisted about algorithms, being short will probably work in the long term.

    BUT the algorithms are real... Do you know how Nielsen works? How accurate do you think Nielsen #s are? Do you know how TV executives at network and cable green light a show? Do you know how many shows go to pilot and never run? Do you know what kind of investment goes into 'pilot season'? Do you know who has 'first look' deals? Do you know how many 'first look' deals each network has? Do you know who innovated the term 'binge viewing'? Do you know how that has affected syndicate rights to a show? Have you looked at DVD sales from 5, 10 years ago compared to today? Do you think NFLX has impacted DVD sales? Do you know how long Nielsen has been reporting +3 viewing? How do you think advertisers react to +3, or DVR viewing? Have you looked at overall Nielsen #s from 1,2,3 years ago compared to today? Have you looked at the Networks schedule this season and see a trend on their big new shows? (I'll give you a hint, they have a DC flavor)

    If you don't think "Orange is the New Black" or "House of Cards" are hits then you're not paying attention.

    I don't need to reiterate what Netflix has reported on several conference calls and interviews, but its instant, detailed customer feedback (algorithms) has real data points to help make tough creative decisions with dozens of variables that Networks/Cable don't possess.

    Now do I think Apple, Google*, Yahoo, Alibaba and Amazon could come in and crush NFLX at any point? I absolutely do, since they will also have the same algorithms and have a larger global presence. All they have to do is spend a few billion and pick up a STARZ/Encore and they will have a content creator with experience (Chris Albrect). Being long STRZA, short NFLX is the trade I would do.

    *Google is already there with YOUTUBE.
    Nov 3, 2014. 09:58 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • An Alternative View Of Netflix [View article]
    Like I said I'm neither Long nor Short, so I don't have a dog in this fight, but 'Algoriths', in creating content, are extremely important. Especially 'long form' storytelling, which is a much better space for NFLX to invade. They are playing 'Moneyball' while the rest of TV executives are looking at batting avg. The most creative TV writers are flocking to NFLX, and HBO/Showtime for that matter, since they are getting 10 show commitments for ideas that NFLX has vetted/studied, via Algorithms. Writers are also enticed by getting to write for the full hour instead of 7 separate act breaks (forced cliffhangers pre-advertisement really doesn't entice the Soderburg's out there). Another advantage is the way these shows are shot, they set them up like a film shoot, and film over a 30-60 day span. Network TV shoots over the entire year, which is costly and the most talented actors/writers/producers don't want to be stuck on one show all season, they like to broaden themselves.

    The Box Office is a nice COUNTING NUMBER, but every film deal is cut differently, P/A costs, development costs, above the line/ below the line costs, distribution costs, distributer % cut, back end, front end points for talent, release date, # of screens, foreign pre-sales, etc - you and I have ZERO clue how much a film makes. As the saying goes, "the most creative guys in Hollywood are the accountants".

    I really don't think NFLX is trying to beat the movie business or HBO/Showtime for that matter, but they are absolutely crushing the networks. Credit to them for being an early mover and disrupting the TV business, wish I had been long.
    Nov 2, 2014. 09:53 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment