dancingdiva's Comments RSS Syndication from SeekingAlpha.com http://seekingalpha.comuser/235916/comments http://seekingalpha.com/article/94188-freddie-fannie-plans-in-motion-why-are-they-being-underplayed?source=feed#comment-246781 246781
Opening this Pandora's box will have serious implications for years to come. Rather than comforting me, it heightens my concerns regarding the future of the US economy.]]> Sat, 06 Sep 2008 06:51:51 -0400
Opening this Pandora's box will have serious implications for years to come. Rather than comforting me, it heightens my concerns regarding the future of the US economy.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/89956-outlook-for-the-indian-economy?source=feed#comment-226979 226979 Sun, 10 Aug 2008 01:43:55 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/89956-outlook-for-the-indian-economy?source=feed#comment-226977 226977
Inflation was quite high in India for much of 1994 and all of 1995. As a result the Indian govt boosted nominal interest rates to a high level and kept them there through much of 1996. I note on your chart 1997 GDP growth rate fell quite sharply relative to the previous few years and I assume it was due to the higher interest rates and its lagging impact.

History looks like it is repeating itself. What makes you think the high level of growth in 2009 and 2010 can occur under since interest rates are likely to remain at a high level to curb inflation? Or was it something other than the high interest rates that had an impact on the 1997 economy?]]> Sun, 10 Aug 2008 01:35:03 -0400
Inflation was quite high in India for much of 1994 and all of 1995. As a result the Indian govt boosted nominal interest rates to a high level and kept them there through much of 1996. I note on your chart 1997 GDP growth rate fell quite sharply relative to the previous few years and I assume it was due to the higher interest rates and its lagging impact.

History looks like it is repeating itself. What makes you think the high level of growth in 2009 and 2010 can occur under since interest rates are likely to remain at a high level to curb inflation? Or was it something other than the high interest rates that had an impact on the 1997 economy?]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/89059-prisma-goes-contrarian-on-potash-industry?source=feed#comment-224553 224553
Surely they must see the handwriting on the wall.

And surely I need not remind bulls that nothing increases supplies over the long haul like massive profits. That's basic economics. Don't look out three months; look out three years. The market is already in the process of pricing that in. We've seen the highs. The only questions are how much of an upward correction occurs and how much sideways trading occurs before it's obvious to everyone this is over.

]]> Wed, 06 Aug 2008 20:30:48 -0400
Surely they must see the handwriting on the wall.

And surely I need not remind bulls that nothing increases supplies over the long haul like massive profits. That's basic economics. Don't look out three months; look out three years. The market is already in the process of pricing that in. We've seen the highs. The only questions are how much of an upward correction occurs and how much sideways trading occurs before it's obvious to everyone this is over.

]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/88721-s-p-500-s-best-and-worst-net-income-change?source=feed#comment-221803 221803 Sun, 03 Aug 2008 19:35:09 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/88210-manitowoc-offers-investors-growth-at-a-discount?source=feed#comment-221375 221375
Putting money into this sector, whether it's Manitowoc, Terex, Caterpillar, etc may be the smartest move in the world if economic conditions don't deteriorate further, but everything I see tells me caution is warranted. This reminds me of the debate on how cheap housing stocks looked after they began their descent, when prices peaked a full year ahead of revenues.

And taking on a high debt load at what may be the top of the cycle leaves them in a more precarious position and unable to take advantage of the bargains which may emerge.

Whether prices move even lower and all negative news is priced in is debatable; but I've caught a "falling knife" in the past only to see earnings deteriorate and prices move even lower. I don't think there is anyone who hasn't fallen victim to that phenomena at least once. So perhaps I'm overly cautious.
















]]> Sun, 03 Aug 2008 08:05:50 -0400
Putting money into this sector, whether it's Manitowoc, Terex, Caterpillar, etc may be the smartest move in the world if economic conditions don't deteriorate further, but everything I see tells me caution is warranted. This reminds me of the debate on how cheap housing stocks looked after they began their descent, when prices peaked a full year ahead of revenues.

And taking on a high debt load at what may be the top of the cycle leaves them in a more precarious position and unable to take advantage of the bargains which may emerge.

Whether prices move even lower and all negative news is priced in is debatable; but I've caught a "falling knife" in the past only to see earnings deteriorate and prices move even lower. I don't think there is anyone who hasn't fallen victim to that phenomena at least once. So perhaps I'm overly cautious.
















]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/88282-all-about-investing-in-agricultural-land?source=feed#comment-221153 221153 Sat, 02 Aug 2008 16:06:29 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/88210-manitowoc-offers-investors-growth-at-a-discount?source=feed#comment-219881 219881
I've always liked Manitowoc; it's a great company. In fact I owned shares in the company until May, when my concerns over the global economy combined with the Enodis debt prompted me to sell. Right now I prefer Terex, although it too could be dead money in a global slowdown. Both stocks are cheap, but Tex has the added advantage of smaller debt and a huge buyback.
]]> Fri, 01 Aug 2008 04:08:10 -0400
I've always liked Manitowoc; it's a great company. In fact I owned shares in the company until May, when my concerns over the global economy combined with the Enodis debt prompted me to sell. Right now I prefer Terex, although it too could be dead money in a global slowdown. Both stocks are cheap, but Tex has the added advantage of smaller debt and a huge buyback.
]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/88210-manitowoc-offers-investors-growth-at-a-discount?source=feed#comment-219874 219874 1. If it was just Enodis, why did both MTW and Tex fall by the same amount over the past two months? My bet it was fear of a global slowdown combined with overall market weakness.
2. Your comparisons to Terex is very faulty. While I agree MTW is the king of cranes, Tex crane sales and earnings over the past two quarters rose more than Mtw's on a percentage basis. Additionally, Tex has an aftermarket service, but doesn't highlight it the way MTW mgmt does theirs. It's obvious by the numbers Tex hasn't suffered in comparison since their margins are growing faster.
3. You say MTW has a greater global exposure, but in 2007 Tex non-US sales were 70% vs Mtw's near 50% (their 2007 report said 53% for "the America's").
4. You neglect to mention Terex' booming mining business that has so far more than made up for the small decline in their AWP business.

I realize your aim was to promote Manitowoc. Yet, your homework and research against what you consider their main competitor was extremely poor. Additionally, your primary thesis that MTW is just being punished over Enodis is outright incorrect since both companies fell by almost the exact same % prior to Tex mgmt's buyback announcement.

Over the past week, both in this weeks Barron's and today on CNBC two different people commented Terex didn't get any respect. It's shoddy research like this that contributes to that opinion.]]> Fri, 01 Aug 2008 03:40:16 -0400 1. If it was just Enodis, why did both MTW and Tex fall by the same amount over the past two months? My bet it was fear of a global slowdown combined with overall market weakness.
2. Your comparisons to Terex is very faulty. While I agree MTW is the king of cranes, Tex crane sales and earnings over the past two quarters rose more than Mtw's on a percentage basis. Additionally, Tex has an aftermarket service, but doesn't highlight it the way MTW mgmt does theirs. It's obvious by the numbers Tex hasn't suffered in comparison since their margins are growing faster.
3. You say MTW has a greater global exposure, but in 2007 Tex non-US sales were 70% vs Mtw's near 50% (their 2007 report said 53% for "the America's").
4. You neglect to mention Terex' booming mining business that has so far more than made up for the small decline in their AWP business.

I realize your aim was to promote Manitowoc. Yet, your homework and research against what you consider their main competitor was extremely poor. Additionally, your primary thesis that MTW is just being punished over Enodis is outright incorrect since both companies fell by almost the exact same % prior to Tex mgmt's buyback announcement.

Over the past week, both in this weeks Barron's and today on CNBC two different people commented Terex didn't get any respect. It's shoddy research like this that contributes to that opinion.]]>