perki's

Saving the Global Economy: Try a Dollar Peg to the Renminbi

"China is trying to free itself from an overdependence on exports by creating a domestic demand driven economy. The result will be 900 million Asians joining the global middle class who are all going to want cell phones, PC’s, and to live in big cities"

Yes, but -- where will the wealth be created to move 900 million people to the middle class? China's export growth to the west will flatten. Ditto for India and others.

Who will be the "customer" for the huge volume of exports needed for China to continue its growth?

China's wealth comes from exports, without growth in exports there is no long term growth in internal consumption. They need an elephant of a new customer, what country will that be?

Nissan’s Leaf: First Big Mistake Right Out of the Blocks

$.10 per KWH, not $1.00 per KWH is a reasonable average grid power cost in 2009.


On Aug 05 06:55 AM Schweizer wrote:

> The dirty little secret is that all of these EVs need to be recharged
> and tests have shown that to replace the energy consumed equates
> to 1 kilowatt-hour for every 4 miles driven. Right now electricity
> off the grid is in the $1/kwh cost range, so these cars cost 25-cents
> per mile to drive just for energy. So to go 30 miles costs $7.50
> in electricity vs. going 30 miles in a economy car cost about $3
> right now (gas). That's a steep premium to pay to make a "green"
> statement considering all the other tradeoffs (range and sticker
> price) one would need to make.

Nissan’s Leaf: First Big Mistake Right Out of the Blocks

The bias of the author is showing.

At this early stage of announcement, + or - 15% on the mileage figures are hardly a deal-breaker. Battery pack cost amortization per mile is probably a much bigger hurdle. It probably is in the neighborhood of $.30 per mile on the Leaf, and a bit more for the author's company.

Short j2 Global at Your Own Peril

A valid rationale for shorting this stock include:

Declining volume of fax services in general (affecting eFax and the fax side of jConnect).

The vulnerability of OneBox, jConnect and eVoice to Google Voice and others.

Though the reported financial look very good indeed.

Priming the Pump for $20/Gal. Gas: Interview with Chris Steiner

The Walmart speculation is interesting.

However, the distribution model Walmart uses is quite fuel efficient. The goods are going to have to get from manufacturer to the consumer somehow, and Walmarts regional distribution model makes excellent use of rail transportation, full truckloads when on-truck etc.

Frankly, I am hard pressed to think of a more efficient model.

Note that Walmart's large truck fleet could likely be switched to other fuels ( Natural Gas?) in equipment replacement cycles, as fuel prices rise.

Floyd Norris calls out NAR's Yun on his lamenting faulty home appraisals. "Given that a significant part of the housing problem was caused by appraisers who signed off on exaggerated home values, it takes a lot of nerve for the realtors to demand that appraisers now ignore market prices in order to let them sell houses."

I agree. Nicely worded and straight to the point.

U.K. Telegraph Pulls Mark Patterson Piece...How Intriguing

If you are writing a factual story about the "take-down" itself, I cannot see how reprinting the original quote would be a legal issue.

Though, I am readers here know that most or all major banks are insolvent, it is just not in our best interest to educate the general public in that matter. For their monthly 401K contributions go a long way in supporting the stock market at its current level.
If they lose the faith and stop contributing .... well..

Should Google Just Keep Hiring?

Yes but "paid search" has the highest growth rates from new placements - ie GMail, Youtube, Google Books, Google Maps, browser add-ons, Google Apps... get the picture?

In addition, search revenue is improved by advertiser tools like AdWords and Google Analytics. Which is why Yahoo keywords sell for so much less per click-through than GOOG. It is just harder for the advertisers to use the systems Yahoo has developed. That one software quality difference is tens of millions of dollars every month.


On May 18 06:40 AM LA Tech wrote:

> If not for the profits in ONE part of the business, paid search,
> Google would have a loss per employee.
>
> Don't kid yourselves, Google generates 99% of revs from paid search
> and 100% of profits from paid search.
>
> Google has had tons of opportunities to have other products and services
> generate revs and profits, but to no avail.
>
> One trick pony, you bet!
>
> Thank goodness for Google, that pony is a strong horse.

Should Google Just Keep Hiring?

One could make a good argument that scarce technical talent available is of higher quality and comes at a lower price during a downturn.

This is especially true in the type of talent that Google normally needs, mostly due the drought in venture capital many start-ups are in the process of becoming shut-downs. Those start-ups-turned-shut-... typically attract the innovators that will soon be available.

Another Consumer Confidence Index Rockets Higher

Wow, "rocketed" and "exploded".

I guess when Conference Board index numbers reach all the way up the numbers we had in 1989, the superlative will be "a cataclysmic event of multiple galactic proportions"

Case-Shiller vs. OFHEO Housing Report: Which is Right?

National numbers are not that useful. Here is my plot of Case-Schiller history, through January by Metro area. With the exception of Detroit, it shows that areas that had the largest increase in prices, generally had the largest decreases recently.
tinyurl.com/dxtowv

U.S. Dollar Has Third Biggest One-Day Decline Ever

Given the size of the FOMC purchases combined with the recent stimulus legislation, the decline of the dollar is quite modest. I am surprised how well it is holding up.

America's Banks: Are They Really Insolvent?

Banks are "nationalized" weekly by the Fed. That is what happens when the Fed takes over. Sometimes they quickly sell them, sometimes not.



On Feb 12 12:53 PM max12345 wrote:

> I don't believe nationalization of banks is ever going to happen
> in the U.S.A. even if it were the right thing to do. (it is the
> wrong thing by definition and by ideology, and probably also in terms
> of what might be the most effective policy) So it's best to stop
> talking and thinking about it and consider more carefully and in
> greater depth the other alternatives. The framework of Geithner's
> plan seems correct. All he needs to do now is put the meat on the
> bones and -most of all - get on with it.

America's Banks: Are They Really Insolvent?

As far as the insolvency thing... the bank keeps a reserve of 10% or so, required by law. So they loan out 90% of deposits. That reserve is covering many banks that are insolvent now, problem is, that belongs to the depositors.

As a result, a small "run" on a bank that is nearly insolvent (Bank of America?) that results in withdrawal of even 3-5% of its deposits, would quickly collapse the bank. Avoiding bank runs is the mission for the Fed now.

America's Banks: Are They Really Insolvent?

Let me reword that.

The Stockholder's Equity in most banks is less than 10% of the total value of outstanding loans. So, if the loan portfolio under performs due to delinquencies and defaults, or the underlying security for the loan (IE real estate) drops in value, the loan portfolio has to be discounted and a loss taken.

If the loan portfolio is discounted more than 10%, not a stretch in today's economy, the bank is technically insolvent.