ki

Marc Faber on the Economy, Gold, WWIII

I would agree we have to accept responsibility for things we do to ourselves. However, when Greenspan lowers rates to one percent, do you really think you should blame the old retiree for unhappily taking his money out of his savings accounts and and trying to find some income in the market or putting it in real estate? When Greenspan told banks on national TV not to be sensitive to borrower qualifications, do you think the resulting fraudulent loans were OUR fault? Have you actually read any of those loan docs? Now, I can't count how many people I've come across who are running for the "safety" of Treasuries. Except, they don't have a clue there's any difference between Fannie Mae, a 30 year T bond or a 3 month T Bill. They're moving to any FUND (of course) with the word "government" in it thinking their money will be safe because, "It's the government". Will you really be so heartless as to hold them responsible for their flight into government debt?

Anyway, although your philosophy is paying off at present, I doubt you'll be in good shape several years from now and you'll return to being the sap that didn't know enough to buy fixed rate debt so inflation would work for instead of against him. There is intervention in the economy - that means it's not going to be market-based, sensible and certainly not ethical. These guys have ALWAYS tilted against the saver and even though the saver is having his day right now, it's going to be very brief. THE WHOLE SYSTEM IS BASED ON DEBT.


On Jan 07 08:27 AM whisperonthewind wrote:

> We can blame others (governments, banks, big oil, etc.) until the
> skies turn polka-dotted, but at some point we have to accept responsibility
> for the things we each do for ourselves and TO ourselves. WE the
> users went for those adjustable rate mortgages. WE believed the
> hype. WE didn't pay the mortgage. WE lost those houses/cars/boats.
> The government here is such that it makes things available, but no
> one forced anyone to sign the papers. WE did that. WE refused to
> read the papers. WE refused to do the math. WE refused to ask the
> loan-makers to show us the numbers on paper. WE refused to listen
> when the interest rates were going up. And WE liked it, because
> our house values were going up at the same time. WE wanted higher
> values for our houses because we knew it would make us rich when
> we sold to some poor sucker. The blame lies with each of us that
> made those stupid mistakes.
>
> I've been criticized by friends for living in a cheap apartment,
> not buying new furniture, not buying a new car, not taking that second
> credit card, not buying new clothes. But now, my rent is affordable,
> my heat is free, my lights are cheap, my car is paid off, my credit
> card carries a balance that will be paid off next week, and my furniture
> and clothes are still just as good as they were. I won't have a
> house to leave to my kids (and they won't have to try to sell it),
> but I will have money. The funny thing about money is that kids
> young and old like it. And they like it more than Aunt Gerda's antimacassar
> and Uncle Herb's rickety rocking chair.
>
> As a nation, as independent and FREE thinkers, we need to begin to
> take responsibility for our OWN actions, we need to stop whining
> and blaming everything else for what we have brought on ourselves.
> Housing bubble or not, global warming or not, it isn't important
> if WE don't take responsibility for ourselves. I'm tired of listening
> to everyone place blame.

Home Price Reality Check

I routinely follow friends' houses on Zillow to see their Zesstimates. A friend's house in the San Diego area is showing a VERY sharp increase over the last month after a slow decrease for the last 10 months. Zillow says her house has appreciated $189,000 in the last 30 days.

Zillow would be a great tool if it were accurate, but I have my doubts.

Some Real Talk on Housing

Bubbles may retrace their excesses, but what is the start date? By 2002, we already saw broad national focus on real estate as people shifted from the tech meltdown to real estate. The Wall Street Journal had already begun its real estate discussion board and there were many posts debating whether housing could continue its unprecedented climb. By May '03, the MSM had picked it up and the Economist had run its "House of Cards" article.

However, one could argue the beginnings of the speculative component of the RE boom stemmed from the '97 change in the real estate tax law. Suddenly, it became possible to earn income by flipping a house and if one claimed primary residence, the income was potentially tax free. By 2000, banks were telling me I could borrow whatever amount I wished. This was quite different from previous years when banks required vast quantities of documentation and a down payment. In 2000, my bid lost out to a builder who subsequently leveled a little ranch house and threw up a huge McMansion in its place. By early '02 I was one of 25 bids on a mold-infested house in the Boston area - the story made the Boston Globe, as an indication of how insane the RE market had become. So I think it's arguable to put the start of this bubble at 2002 and not much of a stretch to think we'll revisit 2002 prices - (in real terms).

However, to draw comparisons to the '30s could be misguided. To expect to see housing lose 90% in nominal terms is doubtful. The '30s didn't have a president seemingly eager to fight wars on multiple fronts no matter the cost, helicopter Ben and Paulson or a bail-out happy Congress. Think about what's happening to the dollar. In France, when the franc became too devalued, they simply tacked on a couple zeros. 100 "old" frances became 1 "new" franc. The dime could become the "new" penny, etc. So a RE retracement to any number could be meaningless if we continue to debase the dollar. I would like see someone talk about what happened to real estate in Argentina as a more appropriate comparison to where we're headed. A few years back, I remember hearing there were great "deals" in Argentina real estate for foreigners, but no Argentinians could afford to buy.

I know it would be painful, but I keep hoping they'll stop the cheating, manipulation and bailouts, let the market stabilize (which would help affordability) and allow people to start building up their lives and savings. But alas, penalizing the saver has become so ingrained, we can't even entertain a world with price stability.