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  • Moody's reviews 29 U.S. E&P companies, seven from Canada for downgrade  [View news story]
    Pretty good short-term calls you made here. As MRO has recently bounced off its 52-wk lows, what do you think of the situation now?
    Feb 1, 2016. 10:10 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • QEP Resources upgraded to Buy at Goldman  [View news story]
    After reviewing the 10-Q (Sept 2015) from a financial viewpoint, they don't look in too bad a shape.

    Cash on hand = 495M
    LT Debt = approx. 2B
    Proven properties = approx. 12B

    Decent operations areas: Uinta Basin, Permian, Williston, Haynesville shale. They will need $$$ to develop and reach full potential; i.e. would not put an asset sale out of play here (in order to raise cash).

    In my view, the earnings report on 24 Feb will be worth watching; no position but may initiate based on what comes out, and also on what oil does between now and then.
    Feb 1, 2016. 08:37 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • American Express Is Not A Value Trap  [View article]
    Some 43M shares traded Friday down 12% on the day tells me there is significant bearish sentiment here. That may be short-term, but I agree with above commenter waiting for 40s may be more prudent entry.

    Also they only pay a $1.16 dividend (roughly 1.85%), so they're not going to get much love from the "widows and orphans" funds.

    I'm looking to start a position, but as I've said will wait for lower price; if not, oh well...other opportunities out there.
    Jan 24, 2016. 01:42 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • WTI - An Update On Oil And The Dollar  [View article]
    Just looking from a macro perspective and limited data, in my view USD strength began prior to, or at least close to, the initial decline in crude. I am thinking of Q4 2014.

    There were other events that contributed to USD strength; for example, the devaluation of the Chinese yuan, the perceived threat of QE in Europe, and effects (still rather unknown) of long-term ZIRP in the US. Plus the unprecedented debt overhang in most Western countries, long-term effects of which, again, still to be evaluated in the future.

    I think this article is mostly about the correlation of Crude / USD relationship in terms of formulating a trading tool; yet somehow for me there are too many external variables that contribute not only in terms of short-term volatility but also long-run effects.

    There was a significant bounce in Crude at the end of last week; at one point we were down to $27+/bbl but I look today and see $32+. This is an unexplained move similar to one that took place mid-Summer from mid-high 40s to mid-50s prior to the latest meltdown at end of 2015.

    I would also say that looking at the $OVX Oil Volatility Index, Jan 2016 so far has been one of the more violent moves in that particular indicator.

    Bottom line, for me I am holding also (only RDS.B at moment but all majors are rather similar in price behavior), down approx. 15% but have added at around $40 a share; it is one of my "middling" holdings in terms of total value and % representation in my portfolio; I am, and have been, over-weighted to large-cap pharmaceuticals (MRK, GSK) and utilities (SO) since last June. Just trying to build as much yield as possible prior to retirement in a few years.
    Jan 24, 2016. 12:14 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Sanchez Energy: What Has Driven The Stock Price Decline?  [View article]
    Since I'm looking thru some 10Qs this morning, wondering why Newfield (NFX) is still "elevated" at $23.70 a shr. Cash on hand = $7M (really, seven million?). Losses from Operations 4.4B (2.7B net of tax) as of 30 Sept 2015. LT debt stated at approx. 2.5B.

    Should be trading with the rest at 15-17 or lower...???
    Market Cap == approx. 3.8B at $23.72.
    Jan 20, 2016. 11:25 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Sanchez Energy: What Has Driven The Stock Price Decline?  [View article]
    At $2.29, this seems to be a "10,000 shares and a prayer" lotto ticket.

    Richard, in addition to the 1.75B LT debt, they've also lost 1.7B in the nine months ended 30 Sept 2015; somehow I don't think Q4 numbers will be any better, and we are now at $27+ a barrel in January from approx. $40/bbl at beginning of Dec/end of November.

    It's great that their production is better, hedging, etc but I'm not sure the 197M in cash, down from 497M on 31 Dec 2014, is enough in the face of the other numbers + the current price environment.
    .
    Jan 20, 2016. 10:52 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Consider National Oilwell Varco For 6.1% Dividend Yield While Waiting For Oil Price Recovery  [View article]
    I also tend to agree. To give the author his due, however, I also agree that NOV is a quality company with one of the lowest debt/equity ratios in the industry.

    Problem is, they (and others) are likely to lose backlog in the current oil environment as cancellation orders start accumulating. That will affect the bottom line and could impact the dividend.

    Having said that, I accepted the risk and bought a partial position at $29. Also watching Helmerich and Payne here.
    Jan 20, 2016. 03:30 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Marathon Oil: What To Expect In 2016  [View article]
    Nice article, Richard, as always.

    MRO moved from apprx. $27 end of June to single-digits now; I find that shocking. Some say that with the absence of the downstream (refining) capability (now independent MPC), that management kind of shot themselves in the foot.

    MUR another company that is mostly an upstream play now (MUSA spun off), and share price has been eroded, also terribly.

    I am staying with the integrated majors and small (micro even) positions, scaling in on pullbacks; it will likely be a long wait for recovery...
    Jan 14, 2016. 07:32 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Helmerich & Payne Is No Longer Attractive  [View article]
    Opinions on NOV?
    Jan 8, 2016. 09:04 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • U.K. Portfolio Update: Q4 2015 With Major Changes  [View article]
    When I looked around this time last year, the UK seemed the place to be for yield, at least on equities; GSK, BP, RDS.B; now, the share price hasn't held up so well, but dividends continue to roll in, so I've held on to them (not really sure what the problem is with GSK).

    Anyway, Good luck to you, seems like you have a well thought plan.
    Jan 2, 2016. 09:08 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Channel Checking Provides Insight On Southwestern Energy Co.  [View article]
    Good comments above, and I'm not one to bash an article.

    Per the EIA Weekly Natural Gas Storage report, US inventories still sit at record levels, as of 25 Dec, 3756 BCF, 16.5% higher than a year ago; so you would need a few "polar vortexes" over the next few winters to draw that down and make demand outstrip supply.

    I agree with you who said that CHK has a worse debt/equity situation. And also the comment that 1.70 seems like a cycle low for NG.

    I'd not short a stock at $6-7; author's suggestion of protecting long position(s) with short-dated OTM puts, however, makes sense to me.

    Have researched several of these producers to include SWN and initiated a long in ECA at $5 a share; might add SWN, haven't yet decided.

    Good luck, something has to pay off sooner or later at these depressed energy levels.
    Jan 1, 2016. 08:44 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Nordic Tanker's 9% Yield May Fall, But The Stock Is Still A Buy  [View article]
    No position in TK, but holy crap !
    Dec 18, 2015. 02:46 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Nordic Tanker's 9% Yield May Fall, But The Stock Is Still A Buy  [View article]
    Teekay Corp (TK) has been a falling knife lately, just kind of watching it, but $20 appears to be a tempting entry point in the stock; expecting a possible dividend cut there as well, yld is over 10% now.
    Dec 13, 2015. 07:09 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Michael Kors higher after bottom line beat  [View news story]
    up 8.27% on the day with over 20M shares traded (avg. = 3.8M), I call that bullish...(at least for yesterday)
    Nov 5, 2015. 07:00 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Encana Is Set For A Comeback  [View article]
    Holding into the 11 Nov earnings report; if it touches support at around $6.50 I will add. This is an energy company that is still migrating from nat. gas into oil (with properties in some good US plays), and should be evaluated as such.

    You should consider ignoring statements from Deutsche Bank - they do not move price and they are not always right, and it makes me think that was the prime motivator in the writing of your article.
    Oct 30, 2015. 11:50 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
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