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nutjob

nutjob
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  • Murphy Oil - Why A Recovery Cannot Be Ruled Out [View article]
    compared to $45 when the article was written.
    entry looks a little better now @ $37.50
    downtrend is still in place however.
    Jul 18, 2015. 02:21 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • AT&T: I'll Buy 10 Out Of 10 Times At This Price [View article]
    Good report - short, to the point and your thesis makes sense. Thanks for writing.
    Apr 19, 2015. 05:29 AM | 24 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Are Investors Placing Higher Valuation On Bill Barrett's Hedging Program? [View article]
    Will be interesting to see if it can break $13 a share, which would fill a gap from 28 Nov - $13 is resistance now. Stock was sold off throughout Dec, but accumulated since 1 Jan this year.

    I own a small position @13 1/2 that lets me ride out price swings. Wish I had added at the 52-week low - whew - $7.54!
    Feb 14, 2015. 10:25 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Update: Eldorado Gold Is Patting Itself On The Back With Industry-Leading Production Costs [View article]
    I agree with you. Company looks good on paper, but then they report AISC of $780 versus average selling price of $1266 and reported earnings almost always suck.

    To top it off they pay a penny a share dividend and seem to make a big deal out of it. Ha!
    Jan 26, 2015. 12:23 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Update: Eldorado Gold Is Patting Itself On The Back With Industry-Leading Production Costs [View article]
    Back to its familiar $6 share price once again.
    Jan 23, 2015. 08:19 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Oil & Gas Stocks: 'Stability At The Bottom' May Be A Positive Sign [View article]
    Well, and here we are at Brent crude below $70 a week later.

    The most interesting part of this for me is $XOM $CVX and $RDS holding value as everything else is getting crushed.

    Should be an interesting "Black Friday" once NY markets open.
    Nov 28, 2014. 12:42 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Bakken Update: 2015 May Be A Difficult Year For This Bakken Non-Operator [View article]
    Lately the first place I look these days with E&Ps is the 10-K.

    As of 31 Dec 2013, NOG had $575M in debt, all of it due in 3-5 years. The total market cap for the company as of market close 20 Nov 2014 was $718M.

    Cash on hand, again as of 31 Dec 2013, was only $5.7M.

    Now, aside from all the technical data presented in this article, am I the only one who has a concern with the above numbers?

    As an investor "group", we might want to start evaluating these as businesses, not just by how much oil and gas is produced down the road, or what OPEC might or might not do.
    Nov 21, 2014. 12:51 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Dynex Capital Pays 12% Dividend Yield And Earns A Recommended Buy And Hold [View article]
    Thanks, this is the only recent article I've seen on this company.
    Nov 16, 2014. 03:16 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • What Does ECB QE Mean For Germany's Two Largest Banks? [View article]
    My own opinion, again this might sound idiotic, but you can buy iShares Germany ticker EWG and own part of a portfolio that includes Bayer AG, Siemens, Allianz, BASF, and Daimler AG as their top 5 holdings.

    In addition, the fund has a 3.7% position in DB.

    Trading near its 52-week low at $26.75. I recommend waiting for a dip to the $20-$25 range. Not many people are bullish on Europe right now - this would be a steal below $20 a share.
    Nov 13, 2014. 05:06 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • BakkenUpdate: Rex Energy Blows By Q1 Analyst Estimates On Its Way To $30/Share [View article]
    Exited REXX at $8.06 on early strength. Exited OAS at 28.35. I don't like the debt overhang relative to market value.

    Looked at REXX's balance sheet and surprised to see very little cash on hand, like around $12M. So it looks to me like another potential Forest Oil situation which I do not want.

    Holding BBG and LPI at this point.
    Nov 10, 2014. 09:23 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • What Does ECB QE Mean For Germany's Two Largest Banks? [View article]
    I'm no expert, but having owned shares of both banks in the past, I would not say they are "at all time lows".

    Commerzbank reverse split their shares 1:10 in 2013. Following this, the shares briefly fell from $15+ to around $8 (USD) giving them a split-adjusted value of approximately 80 cents each. Commerzbank (like Citigroup) has NOT recovered from the credit crisis of 2008. They were heavily invested in European real estate (to include East Europe and the PIIGS countries) and also global shipping. If that's where you want your money to be, that's fine, but at least know what you are buying.

    Deutsche Bank fell to a low of around $20 and change in the market trough of March 2009. They then recovered, but so did everything else from that point. $DB diluted the shares just earlier in this summer, so I do not know see how you say they are at "all-time" lows.

    Japan's massive QE stimulus move is troubling for both Japan and Germany (other countries as well, South Korea as one example); both are export-oriented economies, both are heavy exporters of autos, heavy machinery, & chemicals.
    Nov 7, 2014. 09:58 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • BakkenUpdate: Rex Energy Blows By Q1 Analyst Estimates On Its Way To $30/Share [View article]
    Looks like the "leg to the downside" arrived faster than anticipated. I'm thinking of tossing in the towel here on REXX.

    A 34% paper loss since 9 Oct is painful, but it could get even more painful. Thankful that I took a small position that is easily written off, but I just don't see a recovery for this stock any time soon. Most of my textbooks tell me to unload losers and move on.
    Nov 5, 2014. 07:17 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • BakkenUpdate: Rex Energy Blows By Q1 Analyst Estimates On Its Way To $30/Share [View article]
    My main concern with $REXX right now is market cap relative to total debt. I still think their production numbers and guidance looks pretty good, so I'm holding and have not added.

    I did scale into BBG, LPI, and OAS on Tuesday at pretty good prices, in my opinion. I'm already up 8-10% in BBG and LPI, but expect that not to last too long. We'll see what happens from here, and I am holding the shares.
    Oct 30, 2014. 06:21 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Update: Bill Barrett - $757 Million Divestitures Highlight Value, Expand Core Niobrara Footprint [View article]
    I scaled in to $BBG at $13.57 on Monday. Energy has been hit pretty hard with WTI flirting around $80/bbl and no one can predict where it goes from here, but I thought the price (on many issues - not just BBG) was oversold.

    Also initiated positions in $LPI at $17.20 and $OAS at 28.93.

    Long-term holds and probably will add on more weakness.
    Oct 28, 2014. 08:57 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • BakkenUpdate: Rex Energy Blows By Q1 Analyst Estimates On Its Way To $30/Share [View article]
    Hi Reit.
    a) No one anticipated the drop of 20+ % in crude in <1 month.
    b) Many of these shale//fracking issues are down, some decent quality names too: BBG, LPI, SN, COG
    c) if you believe oil drop is temporary or will rise, you will get your money back plus; if it goes lower or sidetracks, more pain (obviously)
    d) most of us lost $ :)
    e) regards lawsuits or Class actions, only people that make $ there are the law firms
    f) have a trading plan for each trade, establish a stop and forget the losses at that point - it is much less painful.
    g) I lost a small fortune in Forest Oil - totally my fault - but I have no complaints - I move on to the next trade, hopefully it takes me back even or more!

    Best of luck.
    nutjob
    Oct 27, 2014. 09:27 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
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