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nutjob

nutjob
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  • Oil & Gas Stocks: 'Stability At The Bottom' May Be A Positive Sign [View article]
    Well, and here we are at Brent crude below $70 a week later.

    The most interesting part of this for me is $XOM $CVX and $RDS holding value as everything else is getting crushed.

    Should be an interesting "Black Friday" once NY markets open.
    Nov 28, 2014. 12:42 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Bakken Update: 2015 May Be A Difficult Year For This Bakken Non-Operator [View article]
    Lately the first place I look these days with E&Ps is the 10-K.

    As of 31 Dec 2013, NOG had $575M in debt, all of it due in 3-5 years. The total market cap for the company as of market close 20 Nov 2014 was $718M.

    Cash on hand, again as of 31 Dec 2013, was only $5.7M.

    Now, aside from all the technical data presented in this article, am I the only one who has a concern with the above numbers?

    As an investor "group", we might want to start evaluating these as businesses, not just by how much oil and gas is produced down the road, or what OPEC might or might not do.
    Nov 21, 2014. 12:51 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Dynex Capital Pays 12% Dividend Yield And Earns A Recommended Buy And Hold [View article]
    Thanks, this is the only recent article I've seen on this company.
    Nov 16, 2014. 03:16 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • What Does ECB QE Mean For Germany's Two Largest Banks? [View article]
    My own opinion, again this might sound idiotic, but you can buy iShares Germany ticker EWG and own part of a portfolio that includes Bayer AG, Siemens, Allianz, BASF, and Daimler AG as their top 5 holdings.

    In addition, the fund has a 3.7% position in DB.

    Trading near its 52-week low at $26.75. I recommend waiting for a dip to the $20-$25 range. Not many people are bullish on Europe right now - this would be a steal below $20 a share.
    Nov 13, 2014. 05:06 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • BakkenUpdate: Rex Energy Blows By Q1 Analyst Estimates On Its Way To $30/Share [View article]
    Exited REXX at $8.06 on early strength. Exited OAS at 28.35. I don't like the debt overhang relative to market value.

    Looked at REXX's balance sheet and surprised to see very little cash on hand, like around $12M. So it looks to me like another potential Forest Oil situation which I do not want.

    Holding BBG and LPI at this point.
    Nov 10, 2014. 09:23 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • What Does ECB QE Mean For Germany's Two Largest Banks? [View article]
    I'm no expert, but having owned shares of both banks in the past, I would not say they are "at all time lows".

    Commerzbank reverse split their shares 1:10 in 2013. Following this, the shares briefly fell from $15+ to around $8 (USD) giving them a split-adjusted value of approximately 80 cents each. Commerzbank (like Citigroup) has NOT recovered from the credit crisis of 2008. They were heavily invested in European real estate (to include East Europe and the PIIGS countries) and also global shipping. If that's where you want your money to be, that's fine, but at least know what you are buying.

    Deutsche Bank fell to a low of around $20 and change in the market trough of March 2009. They then recovered, but so did everything else from that point. $DB diluted the shares just earlier in this summer, so I do not know see how you say they are at "all-time" lows.

    Japan's massive QE stimulus move is troubling for both Japan and Germany (other countries as well, South Korea as one example); both are export-oriented economies, both are heavy exporters of autos, heavy machinery, & chemicals.
    Nov 7, 2014. 09:58 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • BakkenUpdate: Rex Energy Blows By Q1 Analyst Estimates On Its Way To $30/Share [View article]
    Looks like the "leg to the downside" arrived faster than anticipated. I'm thinking of tossing in the towel here on REXX.

    A 34% paper loss since 9 Oct is painful, but it could get even more painful. Thankful that I took a small position that is easily written off, but I just don't see a recovery for this stock any time soon. Most of my textbooks tell me to unload losers and move on.
    Nov 5, 2014. 07:17 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • BakkenUpdate: Rex Energy Blows By Q1 Analyst Estimates On Its Way To $30/Share [View article]
    My main concern with $REXX right now is market cap relative to total debt. I still think their production numbers and guidance looks pretty good, so I'm holding and have not added.

    I did scale into BBG, LPI, and OAS on Tuesday at pretty good prices, in my opinion. I'm already up 8-10% in BBG and LPI, but expect that not to last too long. We'll see what happens from here, and I am holding the shares.
    Oct 30, 2014. 06:21 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Update: Bill Barrett - $757 Million Divestitures Highlight Value, Expand Core Niobrara Footprint [View article]
    I scaled in to $BBG at $13.57 on Monday. Energy has been hit pretty hard with WTI flirting around $80/bbl and no one can predict where it goes from here, but I thought the price (on many issues - not just BBG) was oversold.

    Also initiated positions in $LPI at $17.20 and $OAS at 28.93.

    Long-term holds and probably will add on more weakness.
    Oct 28, 2014. 08:57 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • BakkenUpdate: Rex Energy Blows By Q1 Analyst Estimates On Its Way To $30/Share [View article]
    Hi Reit.
    a) No one anticipated the drop of 20+ % in crude in <1 month.
    b) Many of these shale//fracking issues are down, some decent quality names too: BBG, LPI, SN, COG
    c) if you believe oil drop is temporary or will rise, you will get your money back plus; if it goes lower or sidetracks, more pain (obviously)
    d) most of us lost $ :)
    e) regards lawsuits or Class actions, only people that make $ there are the law firms
    f) have a trading plan for each trade, establish a stop and forget the losses at that point - it is much less painful.
    g) I lost a small fortune in Forest Oil - totally my fault - but I have no complaints - I move on to the next trade, hopefully it takes me back even or more!

    Best of luck.
    nutjob
    Oct 27, 2014. 09:27 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • BakkenUpdate: Rex Energy Blows By Q1 Analyst Estimates On Its Way To $30/Share [View article]
    I don't think you need to apologize for anything. You give advice here of your own free will and most of your calls have been very good. Also I would add that you do a lot of homework and are one of the most knowledgeable analysts on these energy small-caps.

    Everyone has a right to an opinion REIT and you certainly have a right to air yours, but no one in this world has a crystal ball and not all trades are guaranteed to make money.

    Personally I see no problem with him linking to his site, but that's my view.
    Oct 22, 2014. 05:28 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • New Strategy And Many New Catalysts Make Consol Energy A Buy [View article]
    Now that it is down $10 a share - almost 25% - from when your article was published, it looks more interesting.

    The problem is it does not pay much of a dividend. And energy has been crushed lately across the board, which appears to be continuing, not to mention a surplus in NG and coal is still a very dirty word.

    Not a bad spot to dip in here at $32 and change, but don't be surprised if it ventures into the high 20s from here. When the political winds change it will look much better. Accumulate for a long-term hold.
    Oct 11, 2014. 05:19 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • BakkenUpdate: Rex Energy Blows By Q1 Analyst Estimates On Its Way To $30/Share [View article]
    I'm reading where they have had success with the Warrior North project. Also the company is expecting numbers at or slightly above their Q3 production guidance of 159-165 MMcfe/d.

    It's fallen so much since we last discussed it that I finally took a position yesterday at $11 a share. It's already lower and may go lower still, but I rather like their improved numbers so far in 2014.

    Accumulating shares.
    Oct 9, 2014. 10:58 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Best Dry Bulk Shipping Stock: DryShips, Diana Shipping Or Navios Maritime? [View article]
    "Demand is increasing for..."
    Really - how do you know this?

    Most of the commodities that create demand for bulk shipping are on the decline, i.e. iron ore, thermal and coking coal. Take a look at shares of ANR, BTU, CLD, CLF, VALE, and even BP and RIO - they are all in rapid decline over the past month (coal has been on a severe decline for over three years now).

    It's interesting to watch new 52-week lows, but most have long-since surpassed the stage of capitulation.
    Oct 5, 2014. 04:09 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Forest Oil: Merger Creates Opportunity - Vote Yes For Value [View article]
    The CEO's ran this company into the dirt long ago; FST still has $800M in debt remaining (this AFTER most of the quality properties have been sold off), i.e. there is very little left to sell, and what little is left over will go to the bond-holders.

    Amazing - this was once an $80 stock, but you can now own 10,000 shares of it for roughly $10K. Not a "special" situation but rather a "very sad" situation. I'd rather take the ten grand and buy U.S. stamps, at least I will actually own something of value 10 years from now.
    Oct 5, 2014. 03:39 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
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290 Comments
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