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  • 'Project: Shore Up The Foundation!' Excavates 10 Fairly Valued Core Stocks  [View article]
    DH--

    I set "Price Triggers" with Fidelity, to alert me when a stock price is getting close to my limit order. Since my limit order for NEE is currently at 93.79, I'll set a price trigger at $95 (via text and email) to let me know that my limit order is getting close to hitting. That way I have a little time to decide if I want to readjust my limit order up or down or stand pat. IMHO, limit orders are a must for today's stock market. I was on vacation on 8/24 of last year, and when I got back to town, I found out that 12 of my limit buy orders triggered. I read that most people weren't able to log onto their brokerages to initiate orders and by the time that they were, prices had already zoomed back up.

    In a volatile market like now, I will also set "Price Triggers" for the S&P at various technical levels, 1840, 1820, 1770, etc. to alert me if/when the market is going lower. I don't plan to make any stock purchases until the market gets closer to 1820, and then will reevaluate. I have to be a bit conservative with my buys, since I don't have much new cash coming into my account.

    BTW, I like a lot of your purchases, though they're perhaps a tad early. I think utes and staples are definitely the kinds of buys that won't plunge as much in this market, but I would def hold off on purchasing too many industrials/energy stocks yet.
    Jan 15, 2016. 01:29 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • DGI For The DYI: 2015 Recap  [View article]
    Eric-

    First off, you deserve major kudos for creating such thorough charts to keep track of your cost basis, total return, income, etc. Of all the DGI portfolios that track performance from quarter to quarter, yours is truly among the best because of the wealth of info you track.

    I wouldn't worry too much about your consumer discretionary weighting (not that you are up awake at night). It seems that it's probably weighted a bit higher simply because of your excellent stock selection in that industry. If ROST and SBUX continue to outperform with total return and dividend growth, that's not a bad problem to have! If anything, your REIT and Industrial sector allocations are the ones that seem a bit high to me (mine are at 5% and 6% respectively), but that's all very individual.

    Looking ahead, it sounds like you have a fair amount of confidence in your energy stocks in the red. Do you feel the same confidence for other stocks in the red, like QCOM, GME, CLDT, IBM, etc.? Are you planning on adding more to these stocks given more of a downdraft, or do you plan to sell if they continue to show weakness? And if you're planning to continue to hold, is any of that decision informed by the fact that this is not a taxable account (and thus not able to take a capital loss)?
    Jan 14, 2016. 02:05 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • 'Project: Shore Up The Foundation!' Excavates 10 Fairly Valued Core Stocks  [View article]
    Thanks for the article, DH!

    A few things I wanted to comment on:

    -You discuss adding to positions which are at or slightly above fair value here. Additionally, I have noticed that you have often noted in hindsight (in past articles) that sometimes you buy positions a bit too early. So have you considered purchasing positions at BELOW fair value for an added margin of safety? Especially in a weak market like this, I'd suggest coming up with a % below Fair Value that you could use to establish future limit orders. Perhaps 10% below fair value for core positions, 20% below fair value for non-core positions, etcetera. That way you are actually using your "Tempting Prices" as a guideline, instead of ignoring them and buying above those prices. For example, it seems as though you added to NEE recently and it hasn't hit the FV/green zone yet, so are you really following the roadmap you're setting out for yourself?

    -You mention that WTR is at or close to FV. However, the S&P FV you listed above is far lower than the current price. Is that a typo?

    -Do you still feel comfortable with EMR as a core stock given its extreme cyclicality and dependence on oil? Of course it's a dividend champion, but it stuck out to me from the rest of your core stocks given that you have a preference for lower risk and less volatile stocks. Also, DE and CAT strike me as stocks I'd wanna put in the garden (not as a supporting stock), but that's due to my own personal comfort level. As long as you feel good about weighting them so heavily, then that's what's important.

    -And to answer your question about what stocks are in my sights--I have not purchased anything yet this year. I think it's quite possible we will get a larger shakeout of the stock market in the weeks/months ahead, so I have been stockpiling cash. If/when we get closer to S&P 1800-1850, some stocks I may start to buy include: LOW, COST, NKE, CVS, BDX, GIS, AEP, NEE, ROST, D. Long all of these already except COST.
    Jan 13, 2016. 05:34 PM | 6 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Differing Outlooks On The Market  [View article]
    ha, I wouldn't get too cute with DIS. it's too hard to guess when a Star Wars pop might occur, which might coincide with an overall dip in the market--thereby negating said pop. personally, I'm a buy and holder with DIS--bought a big chunk at $81 and change in October, now added on here and still have plenty of room to add more DIS in an overall market swoon later this year. Would love to fill out my position in the high 90s should it ever get there.

    FYI, M* just raised DIS FV. I think it may be overreaching a tad, but who am I to argue?

    "Disney reported another strong quarter, as fiscal third-quarter bottom-line results came in ahead of our and consensus expectations. We are maintaining our wide moat rating but are raising our fair value estimate to $134, as we are increasing our estimates for 2016 and beyond to better reflect the impact of the Shanghai resort and Star Wars films."
    Aug 5, 2015. 11:02 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Disney tumbles 8.9% after revenue miss; Iger talks ESPN again  [View news story]
    I added to my position at $110.03 at the open. I think M* may be overreaching at $134 FV though…DIS isn't exactly a screaming bargain.
    Aug 5, 2015. 10:42 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Differing Outlooks On The Market  [View article]
    order was executed close to the open at $110.03. now back to bed for a few more minutes…I'm on west coast time!
    Aug 5, 2015. 09:36 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Differing Outlooks On The Market  [View article]
    I plan on adding to my 1/4 position today, and will add on further weakness. it was a strong report overall.
    Aug 5, 2015. 09:05 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Dividend Challengers (And Near-Challengers): 36 Increases Expected By September 30  [View article]
    has HSY announced its new dividend yet? Last year, they announced it on July 24th.
    Aug 3, 2015. 01:54 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Differing Outlooks On The Market  [View article]
    I noticed BWLD's price action for sure, but what I thought was kinda crazy was that it missed on both earnings and revenues, and the stock still managed to soar.
    Jul 29, 2015. 12:03 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Patience, Cash And Dividend Growth Investing  [View article]
    It's really BIIB that is tanking the the sector. Down 20% and counting! I had Biogen on my watchlist, but glad now I never pulled the trigger.
    Jul 24, 2015. 02:51 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Patience, Cash And Dividend Growth Investing  [View article]
    For those interested in UTX, M* just RAISED its Fair Value to $120, which would make it almost 18% undervalued. S&P Capital IQ also values it at $120.70.

    M*'s analysis below:

    "Conceding earlier overconfidence in both UT Aerospace Systems and Otis, United Technologies decreased full-year revenue and profitability guidance, causing a market sell-off of UTX shares. While consolidated revenue (still including Sikorsky) grew a respectable 3% year over year excluding currency and other one-time effects, mounting weakness in commercial aerospace aftermarket sales and ongoing headwinds in Otis' important European and Chinese markets cast doubt on the company’s ability to reach 2015 revenue goals. Soft sales in these two segments, combined with unfavorable business mix at Pratt & Whitney, culminated in nearly 50 basis points of consolidated operating margin decline to 16.6% in the quarter. Monday's Sikorsky sale prompted us to raise our fair value estimate to $120 per share, and we stand by our belief that UTX's portfolio changes justify our valuation. In particular, we continue to believe that a more concentrated portfolio is capable of generating low-to-mid single digit organic revenue growth at higher margins.

    In our opinion, the market's negative reaction to lower near-term guidance fails to take into account improving longer-term prospects at UTX, incited by new CEO Greg Hayes' sweeping review of the company's wide-moat businesses."
    Jul 23, 2015. 10:34 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • RoseNose's Adventure To Reacquire Shares Of 3M Company... And Buy Now!  [View article]
    rose---I think AAPL is a case of a stock being unfairly punished. If they don't beat on every metric by a mile (as they used to during the Steve Jobs era), then the stock often declines. Jobs had a reputation of sandbagging earnings, so of course AAPL topped every earnings expectation during its growthier era.

    QCOM on the other hand consistently misses on every metric, they're losing market share, and it seems like every few months their regulatory woes continue to build. First it was China--where QCOM gets almost 50% of their revenues. Then the Federal Trade Commission, the EU and South Korea have all launched anti-trust investigations.

    I understand if others choose to hang onto QCOM, but since I'm more oriented towards total return than income, it's safe to say that I plan to sell on any pop in the stock.
    Jul 23, 2015. 06:05 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Mondelēz declares $0.17 dividend  [View news story]
    not too shabby.
    Jul 23, 2015. 05:22 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • RoseNose's Adventure To Reacquire Shares Of 3M Company... And Buy Now!  [View article]
    Scott--

    Count me also as a frustrated QCOM long who has not had my limit order to sell strike yet. (it's been on since December) i've lowered it several times, now sitting at $72.50. May have to readjust lower again.

    The divvy growth doesn't mean much to me if it can't generate a positive earnings report. I honestly can't remember one in the last couple of years, where it met top and bottom line expectations.
    Jul 22, 2015. 04:50 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Differing Outlooks On The Market  [View article]
    Chow--

    I just sold my GOOGL position on the earnings pop and bought some LOW with the $. Still like GOOGL a lot, but am too heavily weighted in technology in my portfolio. If I had more cash on hand and less technology in my portfolio, I would have kept GOOGL and simply bought LOW too.

    Good luck to both your son and me!
    Jul 22, 2015. 03:09 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
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