Seeking Alpha

kolpin

kolpin
Send Message
View as an RSS Feed
View kolpin's Comments BY TICKER:
Latest  |  Highest rated
  • Dividends Matter If They Matter To You [View article]
    pen--if you actually took the time to read my post in full, you would see:

    a) that my plan is clearly stated above in my comment.
    b) nowhere did i say, "long term bear markets are a myth."

    thanks for reading selectively.
    Aug 29 10:50 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Dividends Matter If They Matter To You [View article]
    Craig--

    to answer your question (directed to those who are total return focused) , "what is the plan if there is an extended down period during retirement?"

    I think of myself as total return focused, which in practice that means my portfolio is a blend of non/low dividend paying stocks and higher dividend paying stocks.

    the idea that a total return investor in retirement will be forced to sell off all their non-dividend paying stocks at dead lows in a bear market is a myth.

    first off, many total return investors own dividend paying stocks--so we are often earning a good chunk of income through these. second, this imaginary bear market scenario envisions a totally passive investor who buys and simply holds onto their stocks through thick and through thin. the reality is that most total return investors who purchase stocks for capital appreciation are actively managing these stocks--meaning they monitor, buy, trim, rebalance and take profits all the time. (btw, many income investors do this too--even though their reasons for action are rooted primarily in dividend growth)

    I bought my BAC at $7 several years ago because I believed that it was undervalued; my intent has never been to hold onto through a bear market. since I can't predict when that will happen, I will happily trim profits along the way. if I miss out on some upside, so be it.

    likewise, many income investors purchase more risky high yielding BDCs, mREITs, etc. with no intention of holding them in the face of 30%+ declines either.
    Aug 29 09:25 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • New Dividend Challengers Should Carry Warning Labels: "Caution! Not Recession Tested!" [View article]
    Miss--did you end up picking up more WEC on the swoon under $42? I remember us discussing how utes seem to overshoot on valuation every year and then undergo a 10%+ correction. I decided against WEC (still too rich for my blood), but finally bought some SCG at $49 and filled out my AEP position at $50. I would've ideally wanted to buy them when there was a greater margin of safety, but they never seem to correct much more than 15%.
    Aug 29 11:19 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Young Investors - Why Increasing Risk Is A Bad Idea For Your Portfolio [View article]
    sometimes a company will beat and raise and then dip on the announcement too, because some smaller metric isn't as optimistic as analysts would like or because of a general market swoon. that's often a good time to swoop in.

    I picked up UTX at the beginning of the month on a beat and a raise, but a Wells Fargo downgrade which made no sense to me.

    http://seekingalpha.co...

    http://seekingalpha.co...
    Aug 29 10:31 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Can A Successful Dividend Portfolio Be Assembled In 2014? Part 1 [View article]
    emac--

    I don't think it was coincidence actually, I think it had something to do with industry deregulation in the early 2000s. I'm not an expert on the matter, but I think that a lot of utilities were trying to become growth companies at the time, so they borrowed billions to build speculative/unregulated merchant power plants. but when the need for power wasn't there, utilities had to take big write downs and cut dividends.

    the good news is that most utilities are being run pretty conservatively these days, so I don't think that's it going to be an issue again anytime soon.
    Aug 29 02:28 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Can A Successful Dividend Portfolio Be Assembled In 2014? Part 1 [View article]
    emac/Bob--

    -WEC cut in 2000 for the 'Power the Future' Program to build new power plants.
    -SCG cut in 1999 when it acquired PGS, a natural gas provider http://bit.ly/1ljdGUp
    -XEL cut in 2002 - think it was related to bailing out NRG, which eventually filed for bankruptcy
    -TE cut in 2003 http://bit.ly/1n00csj
    Aug 28 08:15 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Young Investors - Why Increasing Risk Is A Bad Idea For Your Portfolio [View article]
    Eric--

    "Growth stocks" are often incorrectly conflated with speculation, high risk, high beta, and low quality--so thanks for reminding us that there are many high quality growth stocks which do not fit that mold.

    did you characterize GMCR, UA, and NFLX as "high risk" speculative investments primarily based on their overvaluation? If so, by the same token, do you think that investing in an overvalued DG stock (CL, for example) is an equally high risk/speculative investment?
    Aug 28 07:26 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • New Dividend Challengers Should Carry Warning Labels: "Caution! Not Recession Tested!" [View article]
    chowder--having been long GILD since 2007, I applaud your brilliant move. Was tempted to climb aboard CELG earlier this year but chose the siren song of dividend paying AMGN instead, as well as ESRX which I believe is still undervalued and 15% EPS growth. both Morningstar and Chuck have discussed on numerous occasions.
    Aug 26 10:45 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • New Dividend Challengers Should Carry Warning Labels: "Caution! Not Recession Tested!" [View article]
    Dbonanza--I would blame the housing bubble directly for the recession, but obviously financials were hugely exposed to the housing market with all of their risky mortgage backed securities. conversely, irrational exuberance in dot coms contributed to the early 2000s recession, and the U.S. banking system remained intact.
    Aug 24 12:49 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • 25 Dividend Champion Investment Opportunities: Something For Every Retired Investor, Part 1 [View article]
    Paul/Rich/Christine/Bob-- on the subject of MDT and taxes, I believe Paul is correct. I too used to reference David Hunkar's article, but I no longer believe the 20% withholding to be the rule with Ireland.

    According to MDT's press release (and as stated by Paul above) while the inversion will be a taxable event, dividends on shares owned by U.S. residents will generally not be subject to Irish withholding tax.

    this link will download MDT's inversion report: (scroll to page 10)
    http://bit.ly/1tB5JK1
    Aug 23 09:17 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • 3 Ideas For September [View article]
    thanks for sharing DM. I stocked up on a few industrials/utilities at the beginning of the month, adding to my RTN stake and buying UTX for the first time (gotta love the beat on earnings and raised guidance), among others. my plan for the rest of the year is to trim/sell a few stocks and raise some cash for the next pullback, as small as they seem to be these days!
    Aug 23 08:34 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • New Dividend Challengers Should Carry Warning Labels: "Caution! Not Recession Tested!" [View article]
    it's a good reminder why I should continue holding WMT, IBM, MCD, etc. in my portfolio. even if their earnings (and sometimes) dividend growth can be frustrating during a bull market, I'll ultimately be happy to have them when they hold up my portfolio during the next recession.
    Aug 23 03:53 PM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • New Dividend Challengers Should Carry Warning Labels: "Caution! Not Recession Tested!" [View article]
    Bob--you're suggesting one go light in banks based on what happened in 2007-9. but that goes to my point--would you have known to go light on banks if the year were 2006 and you were looking at dividend histories/price performance of financials in the last bear market of 2000-2? I'm curious because i wasn't seriously investing at the time and don't know then answer.

    I found a fun chart that analyzed how the Dow 30 performed over the
    last 5 recessions. each recession was triggered by a slightly different cause, but it's interesting to spot trends on which stocks consistently under and over-performed. (with the obvious caveat that the make-up of the Dow has changed a bit since the 1970s)
    http://bit.ly/1pqkj7M

    what I noticed was that CAT, BA, and AXP were consistently hit the hardest and WMT and JNJ consistently held up the best over the past 5 recessions. That makes sense that uber cyclical industrials and a financial might do the worst, but quite interesting how old guard tech companies like IBM, MSFT, CSCO, INTC held up relatively well price-wise during this last recession. obviously during the dot com era, values were wildly inflated--but perhaps blue chip tech companies are more stable than most investors think.
    Aug 23 12:24 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • New Dividend Challengers Should Carry Warning Labels: "Caution! Not Recession Tested!" [View article]
    many investors use the Great Recession of 2007-9 as the yardstick for evaluating an individual stock's price performance and dividend trustworthiness during the next recession. so let's say you're an investor in the year 2006, you'd probably use the bear market of 2000-2 to see if a stock was likely to cut its dividend.

    so my question is---is a stock's past bear market behavior predictive of its future dividend payout and price performance in the next bear market?

    if you look at WFC's dividend history--(http://bit.ly/1rqX8Nb) back in 2006 I'd probably say to myself, this stock has raised its dividend since 1995, no cuts or freezes, I'm all in! And then 2009 happens and it drastically cuts its dividend.
    so if an investor were using a CCC list back in 2006, would they be lulled into a false sense of security that WFC would be A-OK during the next crisis?
    Aug 22 10:20 PM | 6 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • What, Exactly, Constitutes 'Yield Chasing'? [View article]
    Counterpoint--Many of your comments are on point. Thumbs up!

    I am also seeing a few investors take artificial comfort in certain high yielders based on how they fared back in 2008. Just because a BDC/mREIT/high yielder didn't cut its dividend in 2008 doesn't make it inherently a less risky investment (or mean it's immune from cutting it during our next crisis). Or just because it plunged less than the S&P during 2008 doesn't mean it won't be more volatile the next time around.
    Aug 22 10:50 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
COMMENTS STATS
1,014 Comments
757 Likes