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kolpin

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  • The Dividend Growth 50... Plus 113 More [View article]
    I don't know if anyone is still reading the comment section of this article, but I wanted to post some pertinent information on two stocks mentioned above.

    Both SXL and OKS (the MLP associated with OKE) are on a "Dividend Death Watch" list, which includes other companies which have already cut their distributions (RIG, SDRL, VNR), etc. The author predicted that these companies would cut their dividends well in advance of it occurring, so considering his track record, I would heed his warning that SXL and OKE may follow suit. He also warns of various cuts with BDCs as well.

    Also, OKE just lowered its 2015 dividend growth outlook to 4%-8% from 14% and replaced all previously announced guidance expectations and financial forecasts with a revised 2015 outlook. ONEOK reduced its 2015 cash flow available for dividends guidance to a range of USD 570M-USD 650M, compared with a previous guidance range of USD 580M-USD 660M million announced on Dec. 2, 2014.

    Please invest in these stocks at your own peril.

    http://bit.ly/12sIcTn
    http://bit.ly/1FUMAff
    Feb 24, 2015. 04:42 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • No Dividend Conspiracy At Wal-Mart; Its Growth Has Simply Stalled [View article]
    Eric--if MCD had performed as well as WMT has in the last year on a total return basis, MCD's yield would be closer to 3.1, so I'm not jumping up and down for MCD's higher yield.

    me personally, I want the yield of my stocks to go down due to all the capital appreciation that my investment has generated. in the words of chowder, he hopes the Chowder number comes down after he makes a purchase because that means the company is generating capital gains!
    Feb 24, 2015. 11:57 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Express Scripts beats by $0.01, beats on revenue [View news story]
    nice. one of my very few non-dividend payers. consistent, high quality, solid moat, a big beneficiary of Obamacare, and still slightly undervalued. imagine what a monster it would be if it ended up paying a dividend...
    Feb 23, 2015. 08:02 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Dividend-Stingy Wal-Mart Was Already On Probation, So What Now? [View article]
    Mike--I'll second/third/4th CSCO. Owned it a couple of years ago but sold it to free up some cash. I mentioned selling my QCOM about a month ago to buy CSCO. And whaddya know, my QCOM sell order never hit and CSCO jumped after earnings. Hopefully I'll get another chance to buy CSCO on a dip later this year.
    Feb 23, 2015. 07:06 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • No Dividend Conspiracy At Wal-Mart; Its Growth Has Simply Stalled [View article]
    Eric--

    WMT is basically in the same boat as MCD---it's hard to move the earnings growth needle with these 2 behemoths. Are Neighborhood Markets and Create Your Own Burger really gonna do it? Probably not.

    WMT offers slightly less yield these days than MCD, but has outperformed MCD in terms of capital appreciation over the past few years (which obviously accounts for some of the difference in yield).

    I'm long both, but not terribly excited about either. no immediate plans to sell, but MCD will probably be the first of the two to be trimmed.
    Feb 23, 2015. 06:35 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Best Ways To Invest -- What's Your Opinion? A Place To Share Ideas! #67 [View instapost]
    bluesky--

    just an fyi, the chowder rule # is yield + 5 yr CAGR. It's designed to track DIVIDEND growth, not earnings--though obviously one would hope that the numbers track each other.

    he explains it all here:

    http://seekingalpha.co...
    Feb 23, 2015. 05:17 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • What's Your Story? Dividend Growth Investing's Business Model [View article]
    I for one, absolutely try to diversify my portfolio into many (not all) sectors. I look for value in the market, want my portfolio to do well in both bear and bull markets, and am focused on total return (that's income and cap appreciation). Sector rotation and various business cycles of the market is a real phenomenon.
    http://bit.ly/1Fk4WCF

    Some investors choose not to invest in tech stocks out of fear of that sector or lack of understanding of that sector, but that doesn't mean that there aren't quality tech stocks. I'm very long AAPL, MSFT, etc. I don't regard either of these stocks as speculative, and they both make up large holdings within my portfolio.

    I understand that others may choose not to expose their portfolios to all sectors, but why wouldn't others understand why I would choose to?
    Feb 23, 2015. 12:18 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Dividend-Stingy Wal-Mart Was Already On Probation, So What Now? [View article]
    eric--I'm long all 3. GILD my largest position for many years, ABBV for a couple of years pre-split (added more at $57 recently, my sole purchase so far this year) and AMGN since last May.

    surprisingly none have been the wild ride that biotechs are rumored to be.
    Feb 22, 2015. 06:40 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Dividend-Stingy Wal-Mart Was Already On Probation, So What Now? [View article]
    in addition to the difference between being a young investor and also an older investor, it struck me that there often seems to be a difference between someone who has held a stock for 5, 10, 20+ years usually with large gains, and an investor who has held a stock for less than 5 years with often smaller gains.

    obviously not everyone fits neatly into this generalization, but as I looked over some of the comments in this article, it seemed as though investors who were likely to sell either didn't own WMT for very long (less than 5 years) or didn't have substantial capital gains.

    but let's say you were an uber long term investor like buyandhold2012 and bought WMT in a Roth IRA 20 years ago (so taxes wouldn't be an factor). you'd be sitting on a 900%+ gain. psychologically speaking, your feathers might not be easily ruffled by a 2% dividend increase. but if you have only a 15-20% gain on a stock or only owned it for a few years, it just kind of makes it easier to sell somehow.

    obviously that backward-looking psychoanalysis says nothing about any particular stock's future, but it does remind me to once again look at the big picture.
    Feb 21, 2015. 08:54 PM | 8 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Dividend-Stingy Wal-Mart Was Already On Probation, So What Now? [View article]
    Steve/Mike--

    I think GIS's average dividend yield in 2000-4 was approximately what it is now, around 3.25 or so. Above WMT's current yield, but obviously a freeze may be harder to stomach than a piddling increase for some investors.

    I think GIS froze its dividend to free up capital for potential acquisitions, during which time the payout ratio declined from 50% to 38%. Obviously WMT is making a lot of capital expenditures with their rollout of Neighborhood Market stores.

    there's no getting around the fact that WMT is being stingy with its divvy increases. so I guess the question is do you believe in WMT's long term future? I've often asked myself the very same thing with MCD, as I've continued to hold despite its underperformance.

    long MCD, WMT, GIS.
    Feb 21, 2015. 05:42 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Dividend-Stingy Wal-Mart Was Already On Probation, So What Now? [View article]
    I have a question to everyone who is jettisoning WMT or would if they owned it---would you have also sold GIS during the 4 years or so (from 2000-2004) that they froze their dividend? and if you had sold, would you have ever bought the stock back? and if so, when? once they raised the dividend in 2005, or would you have waited 5 years for their DG number to qualify for the chowder rule?
    Feb 21, 2015. 02:55 AM | 7 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Dividend Champions: 15 Increases Expected In The Next 11 Weeks [View article]
    sure the divvy increase is disappointing, but WMT is a super high quality buy and hold forever kind of stock for me. luckily I don't need the income now, so I can take a longer term point of view. It has the highest quality/strongest cash flow, earnings quality, balance sheet, S&P Quality ranking, etc.

    Since I'm focused on both dividends and cap appreciation together, I look at WMT and say, hey, it's not a barnburner, but it's outperformed KO, T, COP, MCD, XOM, PM, SO, and plenty of my other holdings over the past few years.

    Yup, WMT is a keeper for me. YMMV.
    Feb 20, 2015. 11:19 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Dividend Growth 50... Plus 113 More [View article]
    makes sense, DH. I'd like to add to my SO position as well. may start nibbling around the $42-43 area. best of luck!
    Feb 17, 2015. 09:26 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Dividend Growth 50... Plus 113 More [View article]
    It's interesting to see people buying up SO so quickly after such a small correction. now its barely just come into fair value.

    i have noticed that when an entire sector or industry corrects (and is affected by bigger macro fears whether they're real or imagined), think energy stocks from July 2014 until now, or REITs from May 2013 until Dec 2013--it takes time for a sector to correct and bottom. it takes months, not weeks. even creme de la creme O fell over 30%+, XOM fell 17% and it was even undervalued at its peak of $103.

    with utes still being as overvalued as they are (and SO is still not cheap) and only 4 weeks into the sector dip, we still could have a lot farther to go. utility stocks are not insulated from dropping 30% from their highs. I and many others would welcome such an eventual price dip in order to buy, though it may not ever get there.

    I'm not saying buying SO tomorrow is a bad long term decision, but i don't think you necessarily need to be in a rush to buy either. during sector-specific corrections, stock prices very often irrationally overshoot to the downside.
    Feb 16, 2015. 10:29 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Dividend Growth 50... Plus 113 More [View article]
    Owner--

    a few years ago, I bet most DG investors would have scoffed at the notion of investing in GILD or AAPL, but whaddya know, they both pay dividends now (GILD starting the 2nd quarter), and many DG investors are starting to embrace these stocks as contributors to their annual income.

    I'm yours and Scott's age, and am long GILD, AAPL, GOOGL, and BP. And frankly, I believe BP is the riskiest of the four stocks to own. Their safety record and dividend history is less than stellar, and coupled with low oil prices…it could be in for a world of hurt.

    i'm not trying to convince you of purchasing non-dividend payers or recent dividend payers, but I for one was absolutely THRILLED to see Scott's selections. His, Tim's, and Eric's choices are most reflective of my investing style--I love having both dividends and capital appreciation.
    Feb 16, 2015. 09:55 AM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
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