kolpin

kolpin
Send Message
View as an RSS Feed
  • RoseNose's Adventure To Reacquire Shares Of 3M Company... And Buy Now!  [View article]
    Rose--

    S&P Capital IQ gives MMM a Fair Value of $138.30--which would make it quite overvalued. Did you factor their FV into account or dismiss it when determining your own FV? Or do you only consider Morningstar's FV when you determine your own buy price for stocks? Did you take MMM's cyclicality into account when determining your own FV?

    thanks, and great to see you publish an article!!
    Jul 22, 2015. 03:01 PM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Emerson - Now An Excellent Income Play  [View article]
    chowder et al--

    ITW is one that has always been on my watchlist. M* also has a double digit discount to FV, but S&P says it's slightly overvalued. Same goes for MMM--slightly under FV for M*, grossly overvalued for S&P.

    Without looking at other cyclicals, upon first glance, it appears that the two don't synch up as consistently on FV with cyclicals. Perhaps I'd suggest considering VL or a 3rd source when looking at valuing cyclical stocks?
    Jul 22, 2015. 02:03 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • The Most Undervalued And Overvalued Dividend Champions - July '15  [View article]
    thanks for the article, PTI!

    After conducting such an extensive analysis, have you discovered if the 1 yr PAAY is a more meaningful metric or is the 5 yr PAAY? Have you found that one more accurately predicts fair value? Perhaps stocks that have dipped temporarily in price are more likely to be found on the 1 yr PAAY list, while more cyclical stocks that have dipped b/c of larger earnings troughs would be found on the 1 yr and 5 yr PAAY list? Just trying to make sense of it all...

    Also, it seems to me that certain stocks may stay on these lists for some time…energy stocks, for example--due to larger macro issues. So perhaps one may want to pay more attention to stocks that are recent additions to the undervalued list or deletions from the overvalued list. In fact, the two stocks mentioned above that most interest me are LOW and MDT--they're not the most undervalued, but they've made significant steps away from being overvalued.
    Jul 8, 2015. 12:46 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Differing Outlooks On The Market  [View article]
    nice chowder--I'm still stalking LOW and a few others first, but I'll be very interested to see how DKS turns out for you.

    do you intend to return to less speculative stocks for future Project $3 Million purchases this year, or will it wholly depend on valuation? also, do you have a specific percentage of this portfolio which you allocate towards utility stocks? It looks to be around 6% right now between the two holdings of D and SO.
    Jul 7, 2015. 10:57 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • My 30 Stocks For 30 Years: Q2 2015 Update  [View article]
    this is a minor quibble, but depending on how impt sector allocation is to you, you may want to check with a few sources to make sure your stocks are categorized in the correct sectors.

    for example, CSX and FAST are most often considered industrials, along with GE. NKE is almost always put in the Consumer Discretionary sector (or as you call "Services), since it's less of a necessity purchase, like DIS. Arguably, CVS and COST belong in the same sector as well. some of this is subjective obviously, but if you do enough rejiggering, you might find yourself overexposed to certain sectors or underexposed to others.
    Jul 6, 2015. 10:45 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Are Dividend Growth Investors Livin' Too Large?  [View article]
    chowder--
    have you ever looked at DKS (Dick's Sporting Goods), PZZA (Papa Johns), TXRH (Texas Roadhouse), CAKE (Cheesecake Factory), WSM (Williams Sonoma) ,AZO (Autozone), HSNI (Home Shopping Network), VSI (Vitamin Shoppe), SHOO (Steve Madden), BKE (The Buckle), AAN (Aaron's), CRI (Carter's), TIF (Tiffany's), LB (L Brands)?
    I haven't done any due diligence on any of these but most of these are consumer stocks from Crossing Wall St's annual watchlists.
    Jul 1, 2015. 10:42 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • W.P. Carey: A Real Estate Investment For All Seasons  [View article]
    maybe--what's your NNN buy price? I nibbled on a little OHI yesterday...
    Jun 26, 2015. 01:48 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • W.P. Carey: A Real Estate Investment For All Seasons  [View article]
    berloe--

    Did you buy a full stake in WPC? if not, have you considered topping off your position on a day like today?
    Jun 25, 2015. 12:03 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Shopping For REITs Today? Conduct A Competent Inspection  [View article]
    timely article, Adam. Volatility should be embraced rather than feared with regards to purchasing quality stocks. I don't know where the bottom for REITs will be, but I suspect that if investors wait until after rates have been raised (be it September, December, or 2016), they may miss out on some good entry points.

    I had not added to my OHI position since Nov 2012 until today. Happy with my purchase price of $34.71.
    Jun 25, 2015. 12:00 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • W.P. Carey: A Real Estate Investment For All Seasons  [View article]
    sarte--

    I actually had my eye on some utes to buy, but I'm finding today's REIT prices very tempting. any reason why you've changed your mind and are now deciding to wait?
    Jun 25, 2015. 11:28 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Differing Outlooks On The Market  [View article]
    Agreed, Scott. Long WBA and WMT, but not CVS or COST at the moment.

    Btw, did you see that DIS raised its dividend 14+% and it's gonna pay semi-annually now? Ex-dividend date is at the beginning of July. Wow.
    Jun 24, 2015. 04:52 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Differing Outlooks On The Market  [View article]
    I know COST gets a lot of love over WMT (and perhaps deservedly so), but for my money, I like CVS over COST. They obviously inhabit different areas of the retail sector, so you wouldn't go wrong by investing in both, but I like that CVS isn't as richly valued and has better growth prospects, the fact that they inhabit the healthcare care space, plus their deal to take over Target pharmacies.
    Jun 24, 2015. 04:18 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Should You Ever Overpay For A High Growth Company?  [View article]
    Canadian--

    I really like your "Ask Yourself" section at the end of of your articles---it's unique and it gives one a lot of food for thought. I think it also has the potential to stimulate a lot of great comments.

    Also, do you place the most weight on EPS growth for this year, next year, or the next 5 years?

    Take BDX for example: http://yhoo.it/1LorVBT
    It's EPS growth for this year is 13.30%, but next year it goes way up to 19.6%, but then analyst estimates for the next 5 yrs dips down to 10.21%, and the past 5 yrs were much lower at 5% per year. Obviously this year's will be the most accurate, although that guidance can always be lowered or raised too. But you really want to buy a stock based on what its future growth is going to look like…

    If anyone has thoughts on this, please chime in.
    Jun 24, 2015. 03:25 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Differing Outlooks On The Market  [View article]
    nice chowder--I like that your commitment to these investments is longer term.

    I treat each speculative investment differently. With GILD, which I purchased in 2007, that was a buy and hold. So is ESRX, which I purchased in Feb of 2014. However, I just sold 2/3 of my BAC position at a 140% gain (bought in 2012) and my F position (also bought in 2012) will follow suit--as those are inherently more cyclical speculative investments.

    My next spec will most likely be CELG or BIIB or CTSH, but I definitely intend to track your retail plays. If LOW or CVS come down in value, I want one of those to be my next consumer discretionary stock purchases. Plus, my friends and I are Sephora girls…never actually been inside an ULTA myself. Maybe there aren't that many in Southern California? We regularly get gift cards from Sephora for each other for birthdays/holidays--I think it appeals to a young, cosmopolitan, upscale consumer.

    And then of course I get my groceries from the much less upscale WMT, haha. Which BTW, before anyone counts out WMT, did you see this article about how WMT is the store of choice for millennials? http://onforb.es/1Nbvj1B It didn't surprise me, actually.

    Just added to my NSC position today too.
    Jun 24, 2015. 01:53 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Differing Outlooks On The Market  [View article]
    chowder--

    I'm a bit late to the commenting party here, but I just wanted to say that I LOVE your newest moves with Project $3 Million--partially because it's starting to eerily look like my portfolio now. :-) I can't speak specifically to your choices of BWLD and ULTA, but I've always rooted for a little more growth in the portfolio.

    Can you discuss what your strategy will be as far as holding these two speculative stocks? Will you trim gains? Do you hope to eventually move them to supporting roles? If the stocks tank by 10%, is that an immediate sell for you? I think it will be interesting to see if you can resist the temptation to sell and hold onto them long enough to get the really spectacular gains (not just 50%, but 500% or more).
    Jun 24, 2015. 12:09 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
COMMENTS STATS
1,356 Comments
1,210 Likes