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kolpin

kolpin
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  • New Dividend Challengers Should Carry Warning Labels: "Caution! Not Recession Tested!" [View article]
    I don't know if it's just been a super tough couple of years for high yielding stocks or what, but the road seems strewn with carcasses--from SDRL to ESV to LNCO to DLR to various BDCs and mREITs, etc.

    I thankfully broke even on my LNCO and made a little money on DLR, but quit high yielders this year after seeing so many other people get hurt. After I sell my MAIN off, my highest yielding stock will be OHI, which suits me just fine!
    Oct 1 10:54 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Retirees, You CAN Count On Dividend Stocks To Deliver From Here [View article]
    I bought some MA in April and UTX at the beginning of August and may add to both positions if we continue to drop. Right now, the market is only down a measly 3.6%, but with another 1-2% drop, I'm interested (which would hopefully mean another 3-4% drop in the stocks on my watchlist).

    I'm also eying UL, GOOGL, COP, EMR, and a few utes among others.
    Oct 1 10:16 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • The Effect Of Rising Interest Rates On My Portfolio [View article]
    Buy-hold-rebalance---

    Re. your question about going all growth and then transferring over to DG stocks in retirement--the devil is all in the timing. I would argue that you might want to consider purchasing both kinds of stocks as they present good values.

    I'm in my mid-30s, and currently about 85% of my portfolio are DG stocks and 15% are higher growth stocks--some of which do not pay dividends. I may tinker with the ratio a bit to increase my growth stock quotient a few percentage points over the next couple of decades (80/20), and then weight more heavily into DG stocks when I hit my 60s (90/10).

    IMHO, that's a lot easier than going all in or all out in one fell swoop.
    Oct 1 12:51 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Illustrating Why Colgate-Palmolive Is A Leveraged Buyout Candidate [View article]
    Alexander--you made a great call on CL awhile back when it dipped for a nano-second. unfortunately, I did not heed your siren call. though fortunately, I have benefitted from many other articles of yours, including many calls on WAG, UNH, and AMGN, etc.

    I am so thrilled that my SA nomination of you resulted in a well-deserved win. it looks like we have both made each other money now, hah!!
    Sep 29 10:37 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Let's Talk About The Nifty Fifty And Dividend Growth Investing [View article]
    you've definitely made the case that we can be horrible investors if we've got 40 years to let our money compound! yippee!

    however, I think a word of caution is warranted for folks that may have only 10 years or less…I assume that the numbers would have been less rosy on a shorter time frame?

    also, a quick nit---if your theoretical scenario involves buying all Nifty Fifty stocks, wouldn't you have to deduct some actual negative losses from the $3.7 million figure above?
    Sep 26 11:15 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Dividends Vs. Capital Appreciation: Wrong Question [View article]
    mike/Chowder---

    I have no problem "paying up" for quality growth stocks either, but don't like to overpay--meaning I cap my investments to growth stocks under a PE of 30 (i think that anything over that and valuation becomes pretty disconnected from earnings).

    chowder, I'd be interested to see if you arrive at some kind of chowder golden growth formula. I don't adhere to a formula per say, but i'm long stocks like MA, GILD, ESRX, AMGN, SLB, and I think all of them were at a discount to M*'s FV when I purchased them.

    however, I have been eying GOOGL and DIS for quite sometime, and both of those are overvalued. I don't think either would qualify for your earnings growth is > PE ratio formula.
    Sep 24 12:39 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Halliburton Investors Get Another Bite At The Apple [View article]
    Ray/Dag1996--

    I'm long SLB, HAL's fraternal twin and topped off my position recently.

    I'm not long any offshore drillers (like ESV and SDRL) but have seen them decline precipitously as of late. are the issues which are impacting the drillers specific to them (e.g. declining day rates, increased drilling costs), or are there industry-wide issues beyond weakening crude oil prices that could potentially push service companies like HAL/SLB down further?
    Sep 23 05:13 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • When To Trim? [View article]
    Inz--I agree that there's no rush to deploy cash as it seems like better values lay ahead, but if you believe that pipelines are interest rate sensitive, why not put your cash towards an underweighted, undervalued stock in your portfolio that would either benefit from higher interest rates or at the very least isn't correlated? then your sale would kinda make sense to me, so it doesn't feel like you're simply just shifting money around.

    from a glance at one of your portfolio articles, potential candidates nearing fair value could include GE, UL, AFL, GIS, WAG
    Sep 23 01:59 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • You Might Be A High Yield Sucker If... [View article]
    I think one of the main reasons why i've shied away from high yielders isn't because they're inherently risky investments, but because many investors are loose hands with them. if everyone is low conviction with a stock, who's left to buy when the share price tanks or when the dividend is cut?

    if MCD fell by 30% off the highs, I think that many investors would be scooping up shares hand over fist. But now that SDRL has tanked 30%, I think some investors have sold, some are holding and nervous, and a much smaller group are scooping up shares.

    in addition, while a dividend cut would be disastrous to the share price of any stock, I think that the selling pressure would be greatly magnified in a high yielder.

    others may have a different comfort level/risk tolerance and I respect that.
    Sep 22 11:11 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • When To Trim? [View article]
    thanks Inz for the update! it sounds like it was a good decision, because you're able to SWAN with a smaller position.

    so the big question is, what's your replacement stock? or are you just holding cash for now? it might be interesting for you to keep track of this sale and your subsequent buy in order to figure out if the stock swap ended up being a good decision.
    Sep 22 10:42 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Surviving A Worst-Case Scenario To Become A Dividend Growth Investor [View article]
    Eric--

    I'm not long MAT (long HAS instead), but have you considered averaging down on your position here or perhaps slightly below in the 30-32 zone? I think a case could also be made that MAT is not a fundamentally broken stock and is reaching value territory here.
    Sep 22 01:22 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Surviving A Worst-Case Scenario To Become A Dividend Growth Investor [View article]
    Mike--

    So taking the lessons you've learned a step further, what would Mike 2.0 do with your GE stock during the financial crisis? do you think you would have sold during the first dividend freeze, announced in Dec '08? or would you have sold when the first dividend cut was announced in June '09? Or would the newly reformed you be buying more on the way down? Or maybe you'd do it exactly the same way again?
    Sep 18 11:59 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Can A Successful Dividend Portfolio Be Assembled In 2014? - Part 3 [View article]
    Bob--I'm surprised to see DRI on the list. Perhaps it technically adheres to the chowder rule based on the 5 yr div growth number, but didn't it freeze its dividend? I believe there are fundamental ongoing issues with the company and could not in good conscience recommend the stock as an investment to a risk averse retiree.

    Eric Landis wrote a very good article on DRI here: http://seekingalpha.co...
    Sep 18 09:56 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Dividend Contenders: 16 Increases Expected By The End Of November [View article]
    my boring tech stocks are blowing my staples stocks away in terms of divvy growth.

    in addition to Mr. Softie, TXN declared $0.34/share quarterly dividend, a 13.33% increase from the prior dividend of $0.30.
    Sep 18 09:35 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • When To Trim? [View article]
    Inzkeeper---wonderful article that delves into one of the things that investors (including myself) need to improve upon most--the art of selling!

    my initial reaction is to say, STOP, don't sell!!! sure, a 20% return in a few months is nice--but it's small potatoes. but why not hold onto ROST for the next 20 years and get a 1000%+ return? if anything, sell your losers or any stock with deteriorating fundamentals, not your winners.

    Thus, I'm inclined to hold onto a position despite overvaluation, because I probably won't be able to time buying back in when the stock becomes fairly valued. and quite often the fair value price is higher than my initial buy price anyway.

    however, given a scenario where a stock is vastly overvalued AND represents a significant overweighting in your portfolio, I could see how trimming that position might reduce your portfolio's risk. (I think SA Contributor Part Time Investor utilizes such a selling guideline.) I have a couple of positions that are overweighted in my portfolio, but instead of selling or trimming them, I simply make sure to add to other positions to bring their weights up. it takes longer to rebalance, but it has the same effect.
    Sep 18 01:30 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
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