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kolpin

kolpin
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  • My Dividend Portfolio: 2013 Year In Review [View article]
    2013 was a tough year to trim stocks and come out ahead---stocks that went up seemed to go up some more! I think that a rebalancing strategy can definitely work, but it probably makes more sense in a more mature bull market. I'm a bit loathe to trim while I have cash still on hand to invest, so my plan is to employ a 'trimming my winners' strategy in another year or two when I'm fully invested and when I have something else in mind that I want to buy.
    Jan 21 07:49 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Shed Some Tiers Over Your Income Portfolio [View article]
    gratian--who would have to bear the monetary brunt of implementing a smart chip system? retailers, credit card companies, banks, the govt, or some combination of the four?
    Jan 21 01:26 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • A No-Brainer Dividend Growth Investment [View article]
    MCD has unfortunately been one of my worst performers in my portfolio (not the worst, but certainly towards the bottom) in total return over the last couple of years. But I've come to peace with that by viewing it as a conservative, bond-like investment whose main purpose in my portfolio is to generate income which I can invest into other stocks. in fact, it's one of the few stocks I own that I don't automatically dividend reinvest.

    perhaps down the line as the bull market gets longer in the tooth, I'll consider adding more MCD to my portfolio as a hedge against a recession. but for now, I've got my eye on other investments providing better earnings growth.
    Jan 21 01:24 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Shed Some Tiers Over Your Income Portfolio [View article]
    SBUX too. most retailers and other consumer discretionary is getting hit hard (except for media stocks).
    Jan 21 12:48 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Shed Some Tiers Over Your Income Portfolio [View article]
    there is a well-known market signal called the "Walmart Indicator," which suggests that its stock performance is inversely correlated with the health of the economy--a rising WMT stock price means that the economy is weak, and a declining WMT stock price means that the economy is strong. Take it for what it's worth, but current WMT price action would seem to indicate that our economy is growing (albeit slowly) and sectors like industrials and financials will outperform, while staples will underperform.

    For more info:
    http://seekingalpha.co...
    Jan 21 11:09 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Shed Some Tiers Over Your Income Portfolio [View article]
    I don't disagree that TGT and WMT are direct competitors and have a good deal of overlap, but it is interesting that my Fidelity Portfolio categorizes TGT as Discretionary and WMT as a Staple, and the S&P sector ETFs also put WMT with COST and WAG under Staples, while TGT is lumped with ROST, FDO, and AMZN under Discretionary. I can only make an uneducated guess that a significant portion of TGT's sales are derived from goods like clothing and home furnishings, and to a lesser degree food and toothpaste, while perhaps WMT has the opposite ratio. It does not really matter which sector TGT resides in, other than to highlight the fact that TGT may attract a more fickle consumer who might be scared off by higher prices or credit card woes.

    I myself am one of those fickle urban millennials who abandoned my local CityTarget last year in favor of a new WMT Neighborhood Market which opened up. The Walmart was clean, better stocked and much cheaper than the Target near me. It's 15 minutes further from me than the Target, but well-worth the drive.

    However, as a shareholder of WMT and TGT, I am rooting for them both!
    Jan 18 07:35 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • My Core Holdings With High Total Return Estimations [View article]
    for those of us who don't have Fast Graphs, where's the best place to get earning growth rates as well as 5 Year Total Return #s for each stock?
    Jan 18 06:36 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Shed Some Tiers Over Your Income Portfolio [View article]
    Palladium/Adam--an argument could also be made that TGT is a consumer discretionary stock instead of a consumer staple stock (note the 50% drop during the Great Recession and wild divergence from WMT's stock during that time), in which case that sector may not rebound til we're back in the early cycle someday. That's not necessarily a reason to sell TGT, but it may mean that it may take more time than expected to rebound. That may not be an issue for buy and hold DG investors, but important to keep in mind if one places importance on capital appreciation. I also suspect that it will take several more earnings reports to see what kind of damage has been done to TGT earnings.

    I myself am concentrating most of my new purchases in financials, industrials, and healthcare stocks. While I don't see the bottom falling out of consumer stocks or utilities, I think they have enjoyed a very nice run-up and I'm content to DRIP what I have. it will take TGT dropping a bit more for me to get interested in buying additional shares.
    Jan 18 04:51 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • My Mad Method: What Next To Buy, Taking Profits, And Why? - Part 3 [View article]
    good to see you writing another article JD!

    perhaps if time allows, you should consider writing an article which tracks your buys and sells over the past 6 months to see if your frequent rebalancing method does put you ahead via income and/or total return. who knows, perhaps you'll convert some people over with your results!
    Jan 17 03:37 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • What's Your (Dividend Growth) Number?: Part 2 [View article]
    fingers crossed, but if the share price runs up ahead of earnings, it may be smart to trim a few shares before Feb 24th.
    Jan 17 02:52 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • What's Your (Dividend Growth) Number?: Part 2 [View article]
    I think that one's selling strategy also depends on how fully invested one is. I still have a decent cash position that I'm looking to deploy--so when I sell a stock, I don't directly purchase another stock with that money. I deposit that money into my money market account. thus, I don't really incur any opportunity cost by holding onto a stock. And in fact, I'll often decide I want to sell a stock and then hold onto it for a few more months in order to capture another dividend.

    when INTC didn't raise its dividend last year and came in with another disappointing earnings report, I decided I wanted to sell. it seemed to trade up to a $24 resistance quite often, so I set a limit sell order of $24.07 and it sold a couple of months later. In hindsight, it looks like I sold too early, but I was able to collect an additional dividend and got a bounce back in share price to boot.

    if I still owned INTC, I think I'd probably sell sometime tomorrow depending on how the share price traded. I believe it's already priced for perfection, so it wouldn't be worth it to wait around for the ex-dividend date.
    Jan 16 10:37 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • What's Your (Dividend Growth) Number?: Part 2 [View article]
    Almost all of the stocks that I've owned which have been beaten down in the year have inevitably bounced back: INTC, DRI, LNCO, AAPL, though I am still waiting on DLR. While I have since sold some of these positions (and probably a bit early) and redeployed the money elsewhere, I wonder if there's any sense to the notion of holding a stock through the noise and waiting til the weak hands shake out. Then sell if I still want to sell after the hubbub dies down. It seems to me that a lot of losses are realized in the immediate panic after bad news comes out on a stock, and then people realize that it's overblown.

    DLR for example has slowly but surely gained 17% in the last month, but I don't see many comments about it anymore on SA.
    Jan 16 04:56 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Citigroup: Buy The Dip [View article]
    do you think C will continue to thrive into 2015-6? I'm long several banks but monitor closely, as we enter the more mature stages of the bull market.
    Jan 16 03:16 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • 2 Dividend Machines I Purchased Last Week [View article]
    I bought a small position in TGT over a year ago, and I'm right where I started! no matter…I intend to add a bit more if it wants to come down to $58ish or so. a lot of retail stocks look very weak right now IMHO, so I'm in no rush to add more. the unfortunate credit card breach could have honestly happened to any retailer and probably will hit many more in the years to come if we don't institute more secure smart chip technology--although i wish TGT would've been a bit more aggressive in smoothing over customer fears. I'm slightly more worried about their expansion into Canada--but hopefully their issues with pricing and stocking are short term growing pains.
    Jan 16 02:08 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Building A Portfolio Part 4: Evaluating A Holding, Ford Motor [View article]
    Faye--Thanks for another great article! I'm also long F since June 2012; it's about 1% of my portfolio. I hold it in tandem with other cyclical stocks like BAC and WFC.

    when you say "I will lighten up on it when I feel the economy beginning to change negatively for the industry," how do you plan on judging this and executing on that plan? Will you sell off only a portion of F? I ask this b/c while I've been an passive investor for many years, I really didn't pay attention to the market until 2012. So I haven't experienced any downturns as a hands-on investor, and don't exactly know what signals I'll be looking for when the cycle turns down. I believe I'll at least hold onto F and my banks until the end of the year, but can't predict much beyond that timeframe.
    Jan 14 05:31 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
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