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  • New Dividend Challengers Should Carry Warning Labels: "Caution! Not Recession Tested!"  [View article]
    many investors use the Great Recession of 2007-9 as the yardstick for evaluating an individual stock's price performance and dividend trustworthiness during the next recession. so let's say you're an investor in the year 2006, you'd probably use the bear market of 2000-2 to see if a stock was likely to cut its dividend.

    so my question is---is a stock's past bear market behavior predictive of its future dividend payout and price performance in the next bear market?

    if you look at WFC's dividend history--(http://bit.ly/1rqX8Nb) back in 2006 I'd probably say to myself, this stock has raised its dividend since 1995, no cuts or freezes, I'm all in! And then 2009 happens and it drastically cuts its dividend.
    so if an investor were using a CCC list back in 2006, would they be lulled into a false sense of security that WFC would be A-OK during the next crisis?
    Aug 22, 2014. 10:20 PM | 6 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • What, Exactly, Constitutes 'Yield Chasing'?  [View article]
    Counterpoint--Many of your comments are on point. Thumbs up!

    I am also seeing a few investors take artificial comfort in certain high yielders based on how they fared back in 2008. Just because a BDC/mREIT/high yielder didn't cut its dividend in 2008 doesn't make it inherently a less risky investment (or mean it's immune from cutting it during our next crisis). Or just because it plunged less than the S&P during 2008 doesn't mean it won't be more volatile the next time around.
    Aug 22, 2014. 10:50 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • The Dividend-Growth-Devoid Income Portfolio  [View article]
    BDCs make loans to smaller companies considered too risky to receive loans from traditional banks. so if you're putting money into TCAP, MAIN, PSEC, etc., but avoiding bank stocks because of their history of cutting dividends, I don't think your income stream is any safer.

    chowder---I agree with you, I am also less and less inclined to speculate as time wears on--esp when it comes to yield. I'd rather get a low risk 5.3 yield from T than a high risk 8.0 yield from TCAP these days.
    Aug 20, 2014. 02:44 PM | 7 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • McDonald's: China Supplier Concern Is An Opportunity  [View article]
    movies--i agree with you. true innovation and is what's required here, not simply menu additions. absent a real game-changer product, that won't move the needle much. I was pleased to hear that they are expanding their McCafe coffee line into grocery stores (I think they've already tested it out in Canada), but at $7.29/per 12 oz bag, but why would I pay the same amount for McDonald's coffee as Peets? I don't think the perception is that McDonald's coffee deserves the same price point as other grocery store offerings.

    I don't think MCD is going away any time soon, but i'm not seeing anything that's breaking MCD out of stagnation.
    Aug 20, 2014. 10:41 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • McDonald's eyes 2015 launch for McCafe coffee at retail stores  [View news story]
    good move, but am surprised the price point is so high. I expect $7.29 for a 12 oz bag from Starbucks, not McDonalds.

    Aug 20, 2014. 12:05 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Our Retirement Portfolio Business Plan - Legacy Edition - Part Two  [View article]
    blueokie, scott--great points. another problem with beta is that since it's a past calculation, it's not incorporating new fundamental information. so GE may have a high beta, but that number isn't taking into account GE's spinoff of Synchrony, which is an attempt to derisk its financial arm. vice versa, if a company takes on a huge amount of debt, that won't show up as a higher beta either.

    also, since I never know what time frame each finance site uses to calculate beta, the number doesn't have much meaning for me. According to Yahoo Finance, AGNC has a beta of .13, DX is .85, MAIN is .48, AMZN is .77, AFL is 1.62. Those numbers may or may not be accurate, but they have no bearing on how risky/non-risky I believe those equities to be.
    Aug 19, 2014. 11:13 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Dividend-Growth-Devoid Income Portfolio  [View article]
    what concerns me in the discussion of high yielders is that I rarely hear a discussion of an exit/sell strategy with these stocks beyond the decision to sell once a dividend has already been cut. often by that time, the stock has already taken a deep dive and an investor who sells then will face large capital losses.

    a select few may feel comfortable enough to hold onto their mREITs, BDCs, etc. all the way down since their div yield is going up, but I think most investors will have a max pain threshold that they should think about before they purchase these kinds of companies. after all, traders set tight stop losses with high beta stocks.
    Aug 19, 2014. 08:41 PM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Hard Times Will Continue At These Iconic American Retail Plays  [View article]
    Brett--if short term you believe that all are dead money, which of the three do you believe has the best intermediate/long term prospects?
    Aug 19, 2014. 02:52 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Wal-Mart: The Time To Buy Is When No One Likes A Quality Dividend Company  [View article]
    WMT and MCD are two of my biggest underperformers in my portfolio over the past two years, and whereas I'm not particularly optimistic about MCD, I like what I've been hearing and seeing about WMT's future plans. It's tough to move the growth needle with either business, but I think WMT's Neighborhood Market concept in more convenient urban centers is exactly where they should be concentrating their energies, as well as their move into inexpensive organic food and Price First lines, and Savings Catcher app which will make it way easier for frugal schmugals to save without having to compare ads. on the other hand, MCD's new strategy of making their menu smaller and creating more efficient prep stations just don't feel innovative enough.

    MCD's yield and div growth may be higher right now, but long term, I believe WMT's investment in Neighborhood Markets will pay off with higher dividends.
    Aug 18, 2014. 11:41 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • General Mills: Well Positioned In Many Great Sectors, Valuation Elevated  [View article]
    corn prices at 4 year lows is good news for cereal makers like GIS, K:

    Aug 18, 2014. 04:44 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why Gilead Is The Most Exciting Growth Opportunity In 2014  [View article]
    Chuck--that is exactly what i was hoping to hear, and I would expect no less from you (than to include extensive data and facts to back up your recommendations). thank you!
    Aug 18, 2014. 04:30 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • McDonald's: China Supplier Concern Is An Opportunity  [View article]
    lol, if you're not so smart, I'm a real dummy. but a lazy dummy, which sometimes works in my favor (I always meant to sell KMI but never did) and sometimes not (MCD and TGT so far). I don't think MCD's goose is Kodak-cooked by any stretch of the imagination, but I do think its goose is so gigantic that it will take eons to turn that thing around in the rotisserie oven. (hopefully you get my ungainly metaphor) And is its goose that much different from WMT or TGT's goose? maybe, maybenot.

    btw, I was back east this summer for a month, and I came to the realization that Shake Shack's yumminess beats In-N-Out hands down. and they're in discussions to IPO.
    Aug 17, 2014. 10:45 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • McDonald's: China Supplier Concern Is An Opportunity  [View article]
    maybe--I see you like MCD but not TGT. any reason why? I've been putting together my current portfolio's "sell" list, and I've been sorely tempted to put MCD on it. was tempted to sell at the end of 2012, decided to give it another year, then gave it another year reprieve, and now still no improvement. the China meat supplier concern is a passing issue, but the fact that it's consistently missing on earnings, missing on revenues, and same store sales just keep on dropping has me about to give up hope. At least TGT seems adequately alarmed about the breach/Canada rollout and they seem to taking be action in the aftermath. MCD has been slowly sinking like the Titanic for quite some time now.
    Aug 17, 2014. 09:01 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Why Gilead Is The Most Exciting Growth Opportunity In 2014  [View article]
    B3/Spoiled--Chuck was also instrumental in my purchase of AMGN/ESRX as well. The number of investors he has helped with his articles and FAST Graphs is mind-boggling. Anyone can suggest a stock to purchase, but to do so in a way that's grounded in substantive research, rooted in value/earnings, and presented in an accessible manner for investors of all kinds--Sir Carnevale truly has no peer!
    Aug 16, 2014. 02:55 PM | 12 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why Gilead Is The Most Exciting Growth Opportunity In 2014  [View article]
    thanks, Chuck! I've been long GILD since 2007 and am glad I held on for the ride; it's now one of my largest positions. Also long AMGN.

    I know that ink is barely dry on this article, but it begs the question, what's your 2nd most exciting growth opportunity of 2014, that presents the rare combination of long term value and enormous earnings power and isn't AAPL? I'm eying other stocks you've profiled, including GOOG, CTSH, etc.
    Aug 16, 2014. 11:36 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment