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kolpin

kolpin
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  • 401(k) Reconstructed: Q1 2014 Review [View article]
    eric--great portfolio review! I respectfully disagree with some of the comments above regarding your portfolio size. I think that it's a totally personal choice--some may not have the time/energy/skills to a larger portfolio, but you obviously do.

    and now that you've established your 50 stock portfolio, you have the benefit of really observing and analyzing which stocks you want to add more money to, as in make core vs. satellite as JGWright mentioned above. I have always liked how chowder describes buying the best two stocks in an industry and letting them duke it out. you'll be a winner either way!

    also, if someone had asked me what my "best stock picks" two years ago when I first started investing, I might have said KO, MCD, PG, SO, and O. and while I still like and own all of them, I sure am happy that I expanded to satellite stocks like GILD, BAC, and LMT, cause I never would've predicted that they would have done so well.
    Apr 16, 2014. 09:17 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • What Is Total Return? [View article]
    thanks for the article, cranky! while 90% of my stocks are dividend growth stocks, I also buy non-dividend payers as well in order to maximize my total return. And I have also observed and been frustrated by many of those misconceptions you pointed out above.

    what makes some investors think that because I own non-dividend paying stocks like GILD, BRK-B, and BAC, that I will be forced to sell those stocks at market lows? if you make a plan with your portfolio and understand the role each stock is playing within your portfolio, then nothing of the sort will happen. like any other investor, I will continue trimming or selling my non-dividend paying stocks when they're overvalued and buy more when they're undervalued.

    other misconception I see sometimes is "total return investors must be cringing that the market dropped 1% today." total return doesn't mean being short-sighted and price sensitive towards daily market swings. total return to me means long term investing, just like dividend growth investing does.

    another misconception I see a lot is "I buy DG stocks because I have absolutely no idea if the market will go up or down in the next 10 or 20 years." their point is to emphasize the predictability of income over capital appreciation. while I certainly have no idea if the market or any individual stock will go up or down in the next day, week, month, or year, I think it's pretty safe to say that the long term trend of the stock market is up. If I thought that the S&P had a 50/50 chance in 2034 of being at 1864, I probably would invest my money elsewhere.
    Apr 16, 2014. 08:52 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • First-Quarter Portfolio Review: There's Change On The Way [View article]
    or are my "best" stocks the ones that have paid the dividends the longest or have the highest dividend growth or have appreciated the most over the last 1, 3, 5, and 10 years? no matter how you slice and dice it, one's top ten stocks are entirely subjective depending on who and especially when you ask.

    I don't understand why some investors are against other investors holding 50+ stocks in a portfolio. it's one thing if they don't have the time/energy/desire to manage such a portfolio, but who's to say others can't successfully? I understand the need to avoid extremes in either direction (a portfolio of under 5 stocks or over 200, for example), but I haven't yet seen any evidence that a portfolio of 50+ positions underperforms smaller portfolios consistently.

    IMHO, it all comes down to one's personal investing style...
    Apr 13, 2014. 09:53 PM | 6 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Starbucks Is A Sell [View article]
    aha, there it is! my brain got so caught up with the pretty charts on the first two pages that I never noticed it before. or maybe my eyesight is gonna be the first thing to go...

    this will be a great addition, since my calculations don't always mesh with morningstar's fair value.
    Apr 12, 2014. 03:26 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Starbucks Is A Sell [View article]
    Maybe--where does S&P Capital IQ list their fair values? I get their individual company reports off Fidelity, but don't see the fair value listed anywhere on it.
    Apr 12, 2014. 02:56 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Dividend Growth Investing: Is Total Return A Useful Metric? [View article]
    chowder--haha, i knew Project $3 Million would eventually join us on the dark growth side! some low yielders with high growth prospects can definitely be alluring. i just bought a 50% position in MA, but may go long V as well if it drops closer to 190.

    It's also in Morningstar's StockInvestor portfolio and one of their favorite investments for putting new capital to work.
    Apr 12, 2014. 12:35 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Amgen: The Best Value In Biotech [View article]
    am pleased to say I'm finally long AMGN for the first time! nibbled on a 25% position today. it's held up surprisingly well in the biotech sell-off, but finally capitulated to my buy price today.
    Apr 10, 2014. 05:21 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Halliburton Hits All-Time Highs, But Still Has Upside [View article]
    i was torn between purchasing HAL and SLB last year, and unfortunately (but not all that unfortunately) went with SLB. do you think SLB has the same 15-20% potential upside as HAL, or will the international risks put a damper on it?
    Apr 4, 2014. 11:42 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • How To Identify Good Stocks, Part 1 [View article]
    glad to see you long UNH! The healthcare kerfuffle kind of reminded me of sequestration back in early 2013, which turned out quite well for any buyers of defense stocks at the time. And so far so good with UNH--which in my mind is stellar on most every metric expect current yield. I think in a few years when UNH has a longer history of paying a dividend, many DG investors will notice it. however, by then, it may be too expensive!

    next divy raise should be announced in June. fingers crossed!
    Apr 4, 2014. 11:31 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Saying Goodbye To Coca-Cola, Time To Move On [View article]
    AP--kudos for generating a great discussion thread. unlike many DG investors, I'm none too pleased about KO's slowing revenue growth, stagnant share price, not to mention the compensation issue. however, I'm not in a rush to sell KO either--as I still have cash on hand that i want to invest in other stocks.

    you've piqued my interest with DG, as I had only considered FDO before. in your analysis, did DG beat FDO and DLTR on almost every metric? FDO esp has been beaten down into a rather promising entry point.
    Apr 1, 2014. 10:39 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Selecting Stocks For My Second Quarter Watch List [View article]
    great, I look forward to reading--as always.
    Mar 23, 2014. 02:21 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Selecting Stocks For My Second Quarter Watch List [View article]
    Bob,

    Interesting to see that you bought SDRL...a tad curious as to why, since you wrote that very good article about not purchasing any risky stocks with yields over 8% or more than a 10% loss. I read recently that since October, SDRL shares have dropped by 27%, while ESV and RIG have dropped much less.
    Mar 23, 2014. 11:13 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • How One Retiree Is Muddling Through Dividend Investing: Part VIII - A Year Later [View article]
    Martin, I was also confused on VOD's yield because so many sources differ-- until I read an in-depth paragraph from Morningstar's dividend guru Josh Peters, which I cut and pasted below. He indicates that the dividend yield is currently 4.6, but going forward it will be 4.9.

    "One of the issues that arise in a complex series of changes like this is that dividend data is often distorted--including, I'm sorry to say, on Morningstar.com. In some places Vodafone is showing up with a yield north of 7% based on trailing calculations, but this isn't the case on a going-forward basis. Vodafone's per-share dividend rates didn't change as a result of the reverse stock split: That is, a shareholder has fewer shares paying the same rate of $1.72 an ADR based on the most recent final and interim payments. That gives the stock a yield of 4.6%. It gets a little better if we incorporate Vodafone's plan to raise the final dividend for fiscal 2014 by 8%--the yield moves up to 4.9%--but that's still a far cry from 7% or so."
    Mar 22, 2014. 01:29 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • What Do I Do With My Stocks If The Market Crashes? Part 1 [View article]
    steve--I'm curious what the difference is between the total return on WAG since you sold and the new stocks you purchased. have you come out fairly even steven? could be an interesting metric to check from time to time...
    Mar 22, 2014. 12:43 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • What Do I Do With My Stocks If The Market Crashes? Part 1 [View article]
    thanks aaron. good to see them pass their stress tests (although that was a given) and in better shape then before the crisis. and pretty soon, some increased dividends to boot!
    Mar 22, 2014. 12:37 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
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