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kolpin

kolpin
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  • McDonald's: Expect A Full Recovery In 2015 [View article]
    while the "Create Your Taste" option is a laudable attempt to attract millennials and win back business from fast casuals, it's won't be enough to juice up same store sales. it comes with a higher price point (repelling price-conscious millennials), it won't be available via drive-thru (where MCD conducts 70% of its business), and it will increase wait times--which is already a long-standing issue.

    try again, MCD. I'm rooting for you to recover, but I see it taking much, much longer than a year.
    Dec 15, 2014. 09:00 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • How Long Does A 'Typical' Oil Downcycle Last? [View article]
    so how closely do energy stocks (the integrated majors) track oil prices, in terms of price drops and time frame?
    Dec 15, 2014. 08:50 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Project $3 Million - KMI [View instapost]
    chowder--I didn't see you mention this above, but does it bother you that Jefferson Research lists the Balance Sheet as now falling to "Weakest" and Valuation has now increased to "Most Risk?"

    it's not a positive trend, but perhaps can be explained by the merger?

    I also poked around some of Fidelity's other reports and the firm GMI analyzes accounting and governance risk (the report is entitled "GMI AGRĀ® Research Report - KMI") and it gave KMI a score of 10, Very Aggressive --meaning that KMI has higher risk than 90% of all companies.

    Again, it's possible that it's merger related? Or perhaps related to the non-GAAP accounting measures that Hedgeye attacked them on last year? i'm no finance whiz, but thought you might have some insight.
    Dec 15, 2014. 01:05 AM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • BHP Billiton: A High-Yielding Wait For The Iron Ore Turnaround [View article]
    thanks for your response, Mike. I'm slowly learning how to fine-tune my antenna--how much industry/sector/company news is worth paying attention to, and how much of it is simply noise?
    Dec 14, 2014. 04:37 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • What You Can Do To Perhaps Avoid Dividend Cuts [View article]
    and just to add, I think Josh tends to be quite conservative with his investments. he bailed on INTC (a bit early) due to lack o' dividend growth, and he bailed on KMP (a bit early as well). obviously not infallible, but I think if anything, he errs on the side of taking the path of least risk.
    Dec 13, 2014. 05:36 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • What You Can Do To Perhaps Avoid Dividend Cuts [View article]
    me neither...i'm not anti-energy, just watching and waiting for the time being. maybe we stabilize at $50-55 oil...
    Dec 13, 2014. 05:06 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • What You Can Do To Perhaps Avoid Dividend Cuts [View article]
    For anyone who subscribes to Josh Peter's M* DividendInvestor newsletter, he had a nice write-up on GE this week that makes me feel very comfortable with the small dividend increase.

    He basically believes that weak overseas growth (in tandem with the strong dollar) is the main culprit, and it's hurting a lot of multinationals. He credits GE for not boosting the payout ratio, which would destroy its margin of safety for the next downturn. (which a lot of consumer staples companies are doing, but they can afford to b/c of the defensive nature of their industries) Also, GE's earnings have weakened due to the shrinking of GE Capital--but it's made it a much more low risk company.

    long GE.
    Dec 13, 2014. 05:03 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • What You Can Do To Perhaps Avoid Dividend Cuts [View article]
    great minds think alike. I haven't done any buying during this correction yet, but I'm eying less energy and more consumer-related stocks if there is more of a dip next week: DIS, DEO, UL, TJX, GOOGL, VFC. All are a bit pricey, but I think they're going to do well both in the short term and long term (anti-play on energy).
    Dec 13, 2014. 04:19 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • BHP Billiton: A High-Yielding Wait For The Iron Ore Turnaround [View article]
    Mike--

    You were spot on with your SDRL call, based partially on the CFO's negative outlook of the entire drilling sector.

    Do you feel that BBL is in the same rocky boat (obviously it's the higher quality ESV of the sector)? I recently saw an article where the President of BHP forecast depressed prices and lower consumption ahead:

    http://yhoo.it/1wt4EX3
    Dec 13, 2014. 04:14 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • What You Can Do To Perhaps Avoid Dividend Cuts [View article]
    Bob--If you're looking to put your $ to a new position with a yield around 3% and low beta that will help you SWAN, have you ever looked at UL or DEO?

    With another few down days, they may look appetizing.
    Dec 13, 2014. 04:03 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Retirement Strategy: Selling Exxon Mobil Goes Against The Grain Of A Dividend Growth Investor [View article]
    my buy target for DEO is $108, which is 15.6% under Fair Value according to Morningstar--it would be a new position. and i'm already long EMR, but my add-to price is $55, which would make it 20% under Fair Value.
    Dec 12, 2014. 07:01 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • What You Can Do To Perhaps Avoid Dividend Cuts [View article]
    chowder--Immelt is on record stating that divvy growth will track earnings growth, so the 4.5% dividend increase is within the range of what was to be expected. 2014's estimated earnings growth is about 2% and 2015 is estimated to be 7.8%.
    Dec 12, 2014. 06:22 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Dividend Champions: 11 Increases Expected By The End Of January [View article]
    Agreed, DGM. If I'm unsure of a stock's future dividend policy, I tend to hold rather than sell right away. Long ABT, ABBV.
    Dec 12, 2014. 02:24 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • What You Can Do To Perhaps Avoid Dividend Cuts [View article]
    Bob--I think that was a smart decision on your part. I sold my TCAP and DLR a couple of months ago and have been debating selling my MAIN for some time as well. Sometimes it's just not worth the worry!

    Have you benched or sold your SDRL and ESV?
    Dec 12, 2014. 02:08 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Retirement Strategy: Selling Exxon Mobil Goes Against The Grain Of A Dividend Growth Investor [View article]
    Steve--I'm finding a lot of non-energy plays also starting to look undervalued as well. Have you looked at EMR, DEO?
    Dec 12, 2014. 02:05 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
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