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kolpin

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  • Thirsty For Income? Try Dividend Growth [View article]
    I pay attention to the payout ratio less if it's on the low side, and much more so if it's on the high side. if it's on the high side, I want to know why--esp if it's in a cyclical business, which needs a higher margin of safety to continue paying and raising its dividend.
    Mar 14 05:09 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Jim Cramer Sells Linn Energy, Tells Investors To Buy Kinder Morgan [View article]
    Value--If you track the Morningstar newsletters, Josh and others at Morningstar (Matt Coffina, etc) have sounded the warning bells on the KMP family for the past year, so this was a decision long in the making--way before the recent price decline and Barron's/Hedgeye article. the warning bells have always been accompanied by a fair and reasoned defense of Kinder, but now he believes the risk profile too great for a conservative investor.
    Mar 14 02:09 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • How To Get The Most Out Of Dividend Growth [View article]
    Jon--gotcha, that makes complete sense. thanks for the clarification!

    I would only add that many total return investors like myself have no plans to sell stocks during a market downturn to generate cash. in fact, during a market downturn, my investing style will mirror a more conservative DGI investor--happily collecting increasing divvies to generate income. it's during a bull market such as now, where my style might differ from a conservative DGI investor. in addition to continuing to hold my GIS, KO, PEP and the like, I also opportunistically acquire stocks (such as BAC and GILD) for capital appreciation. My GILD and BAC are up 140% and 243% respectively, and I plan on slowly selling off shares this year or next so that I'm only playing with house money.

    I know you weren't saying this, but sometimes total return can get mistakenly equated with buying the Twitters and Zyngas of the world, then blindly holding onto such stocks during a market downturn and forced to being sell at the worst possible time. the truth of the matter is that an essential component of many total return investors' portfolios are dividend growth stocks. furthermore, many of us are much more active, aware, and opportunistic with the growth portion of our portfolios--I would never hold onto my BAC and watch my 140% gain erode to 0. that stock's purpose in my portfolio is meant to generate some nice gains, then sell and move on.
    Mar 13 02:24 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • How To Get The Most Out Of Dividend Growth [View article]
    Jon--just because a stock doesn't pay a dividend or pays a small one doesn't mean it's a flash in the pan rookie. while my old stodgy BRK-B may not be right for income investors, it just hit all-time highs today and I don't think it's going to crumble to the ground at the next sign of inclement weather.
    Mar 13 12:06 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Kinder Morgan Energy Partners: A Good Time To Buy? [View article]
    Gawilley--did you also see that Morningstar's Josh Peters sold KMI/KMP from his Dividend Investor portfolio, citing its risk profile? that's kind of the nail in the coffin for me.

    I'll wait for the next ex-div date and then sell next month. hopefully it won't fall too much more in the meantime.
    Mar 12 07:43 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • How To Get The Most Out Of Dividend Growth [View article]
    I couldn't agree more, gratian! maybe I'm a rare breed, but I want my stocks to go up in price AND my dividends to increase. there shouldn't be anything wrong with wanting capital appreciation, but it's starting to carry such a negative connotation that I feel almost ashamed to admit it.

    some have commented that capital appreciation is this wildly, irrational unpredictable concept (and thus favor the safe and predictable stream of growing dividends), but I don't think of capital appreciation in that way at all. while a stock's day to day price fluctuations may be unpredictable, if you do your due diligence and choose a stock with growing earnings/revenues, it is highly likely that your stock will appreciate in price over the longer term just as it's highly likely your dividends will increase. sure, price appreciation is not guaranteed, but neither is it guaranteed that your favorite dividend stock will increase their dividend by 12% each year.
    Mar 12 06:38 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Exxon Mobil: The Dividend Growth Picture Looks Unusually Bright [View article]
    tim--what's your take on KMI/KMP/KMR and other midstream pipeline companies? would you consider owning for either the short or long haul?
    Mar 11 06:46 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • A Value Investor Explains Why He Owns Digital Realty [View article]
    Mike, I'm long DLR, O, NNN, OHI, HCN, and WPC as well, and all together, they make up only 3% of my portfolio. None of them are totally SWAN for me, but DLR does top the list of least swaniness. And by that I just mean, which position do I feel least committed to owning?

    I've turned off the DRIP on all of them (unlike most of my other positions) and am just watching and waiting to see how they fare. Once I'm fully invested, I may sell off one or two to raise some investing cash--and DLR is first on the list.
    Mar 11 11:36 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Deere Chooses Not To Raise The Dividend; What's Next? [View article]
    Aaron--I don't disagree with "just raise it a penny," but it might not have made a difference with a lot of DG investors, to be honest. when WMT only raised their divvy by 2%, some investors sold anyway; I suspect that the expectation for WMT was to match previous years of robust divvy growth.
    Mar 11 11:24 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Total Dividend Return Will Guide My 2014 Investment Decisions [View article]
    minty--

    I get what you're saying. first off, I think that the goals of the chowder rule are totally sound (yield and dividend growth). however is it necessary to add them together to reach a certain number? I'm not so sure.

    I for one tend to look at yield and dividend growth as separate components, just as I look at payout ratio, debt, FCF, capital appreciation, revenue, earnings--each through a separate lens. I suppose theoretically you could add all the above together to get an uber number of sorts (and I seem to recall JD does so for his purposes, and it works for him), but I'm not sure that it's necessary to do so.

    I think the chowder rule can be a great tool. so are the CCCs and FAST Graphs. but if investing newbies are using such tools or other shortcuts in place of doing comprehensive investing research, they can easily mistake bad stocks for good ones and vice versa.

    to his credit, chowder has always emphasized that what's right for him may not be right for you--depending on age, portfolio size, etc. so don't just do what he does!
    Mar 10 10:53 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Total Dividend Return Will Guide My 2014 Investment Decisions [View article]
    Sewolla--not sure if you follow Morningstar, but Dividend Investor utilizes a formula similar to the chowder rule, which they apply on a portfolio-wide level. thus not all stocks strictly adhere to their formula (for example WFC and EMR), but the average of the stocks in their 2 portfolios do meet their yield and dividend growth targets.

    so your thinking from a portfolio perspective sounds about right.
    Mar 10 09:18 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • A Value Investor Explains Why He Owns Digital Realty [View article]
    Mike, I don't disagree that for many, DLR is not a SWAN investment. However, if price volatility is a measure of what makes a SWAN investment, then the same could be said for many bellwether REITs in the last year--including O and HCN.
    Mar 10 01:45 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Stocks Are Two-Faced, And One Is A Pathological Liar [View article]
    David--there are many flavors of total return investors, just as there are many types of DGIers.

    and while Mr. Swedroe may not be among them, many total return investors such as myself do place importance on dividends. just as many of us find earnings, value, and capital appreciation equally important. there are no "favorite children" here.
    Mar 10 01:09 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Spectra Energy: Gas Utility With Plenty Of Catalysts [View article]
    thanks jon/rsmth for your responses. I am considering selling my KMI in the next few months and am looking for a replacement. SE just might fit the bill.
    Mar 9 08:07 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Stocks You Can Hold Long After The Market Peak [View article]
    i couldn't agree more, Rich.

    while TDR can be an important consideration for DGI investors, it's no shortcut for doing due diligence on the nuts and bolts of a company. If you substitute a formula for reading up on a company's business, delving into their financials or tracking an earnings report, you miss the bigger picture.

    People were high on WMT last year b/c of their 18% dividend increase and then were shocked by this year's 2% increase, but the reality is, it wouldn't have been such a big surprise if they had been tracking WMT's metrics (such as declining same store sales) all along.
    Mar 2 06:59 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
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