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kolpin

kolpin
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  • New Dividend Challengers Should Carry Warning Labels: "Caution! Not Recession Tested!" [View article]
    chowder--having been long GILD since 2007, I applaud your brilliant move. Was tempted to climb aboard CELG earlier this year but chose the siren song of dividend paying AMGN instead, as well as ESRX which I believe is still undervalued and 15% EPS growth. both Morningstar and Chuck have discussed on numerous occasions.
    Aug 26 10:45 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • New Dividend Challengers Should Carry Warning Labels: "Caution! Not Recession Tested!" [View article]
    Dbonanza--I would blame the housing bubble directly for the recession, but obviously financials were hugely exposed to the housing market with all of their risky mortgage backed securities. conversely, irrational exuberance in dot coms contributed to the early 2000s recession, and the U.S. banking system remained intact.
    Aug 24 12:49 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • 25 Dividend Champion Investment Opportunities: Something For Every Retired Investor, Part 1 [View article]
    Paul/Rich/Christine/Bob-- on the subject of MDT and taxes, I believe Paul is correct. I too used to reference David Hunkar's article, but I no longer believe the 20% withholding to be the rule with Ireland.

    According to MDT's press release (and as stated by Paul above) while the inversion will be a taxable event, dividends on shares owned by U.S. residents will generally not be subject to Irish withholding tax.

    this link will download MDT's inversion report: (scroll to page 10)
    http://bit.ly/1tB5JK1
    Aug 23 09:17 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • 3 Ideas For September [View article]
    thanks for sharing DM. I stocked up on a few industrials/utilities at the beginning of the month, adding to my RTN stake and buying UTX for the first time (gotta love the beat on earnings and raised guidance), among others. my plan for the rest of the year is to trim/sell a few stocks and raise some cash for the next pullback, as small as they seem to be these days!
    Aug 23 08:34 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • New Dividend Challengers Should Carry Warning Labels: "Caution! Not Recession Tested!" [View article]
    it's a good reminder why I should continue holding WMT, IBM, MCD, etc. in my portfolio. even if their earnings (and sometimes) dividend growth can be frustrating during a bull market, I'll ultimately be happy to have them when they hold up my portfolio during the next recession.
    Aug 23 03:53 PM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • New Dividend Challengers Should Carry Warning Labels: "Caution! Not Recession Tested!" [View article]
    Bob--you're suggesting one go light in banks based on what happened in 2007-9. but that goes to my point--would you have known to go light on banks if the year were 2006 and you were looking at dividend histories/price performance of financials in the last bear market of 2000-2? I'm curious because i wasn't seriously investing at the time and don't know then answer.

    I found a fun chart that analyzed how the Dow 30 performed over the
    last 5 recessions. each recession was triggered by a slightly different cause, but it's interesting to spot trends on which stocks consistently under and over-performed. (with the obvious caveat that the make-up of the Dow has changed a bit since the 1970s)
    http://bit.ly/1pqkj7M

    what I noticed was that CAT, BA, and AXP were consistently hit the hardest and WMT and JNJ consistently held up the best over the past 5 recessions. That makes sense that uber cyclical industrials and a financial might do the worst, but quite interesting how old guard tech companies like IBM, MSFT, CSCO, INTC held up relatively well price-wise during this last recession. obviously during the dot com era, values were wildly inflated--but perhaps blue chip tech companies are more stable than most investors think.
    Aug 23 12:24 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • New Dividend Challengers Should Carry Warning Labels: "Caution! Not Recession Tested!" [View article]
    many investors use the Great Recession of 2007-9 as the yardstick for evaluating an individual stock's price performance and dividend trustworthiness during the next recession. so let's say you're an investor in the year 2006, you'd probably use the bear market of 2000-2 to see if a stock was likely to cut its dividend.

    so my question is---is a stock's past bear market behavior predictive of its future dividend payout and price performance in the next bear market?

    if you look at WFC's dividend history--(http://bit.ly/1rqX8Nb) back in 2006 I'd probably say to myself, this stock has raised its dividend since 1995, no cuts or freezes, I'm all in! And then 2009 happens and it drastically cuts its dividend.
    so if an investor were using a CCC list back in 2006, would they be lulled into a false sense of security that WFC would be A-OK during the next crisis?
    Aug 22 10:20 PM | 6 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • What, Exactly, Constitutes 'Yield Chasing'? [View article]
    Counterpoint--Many of your comments are on point. Thumbs up!

    I am also seeing a few investors take artificial comfort in certain high yielders based on how they fared back in 2008. Just because a BDC/mREIT/high yielder didn't cut its dividend in 2008 doesn't make it inherently a less risky investment (or mean it's immune from cutting it during our next crisis). Or just because it plunged less than the S&P during 2008 doesn't mean it won't be more volatile the next time around.
    Aug 22 10:50 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • The Dividend-Growth-Devoid Income Portfolio [View article]
    BDCs make loans to smaller companies considered too risky to receive loans from traditional banks. so if you're putting money into TCAP, MAIN, PSEC, etc., but avoiding bank stocks because of their history of cutting dividends, I don't think your income stream is any safer.

    chowder---I agree with you, I am also less and less inclined to speculate as time wears on--esp when it comes to yield. I'd rather get a low risk 5.3 yield from T than a high risk 8.0 yield from TCAP these days.
    Aug 20 02:44 PM | 7 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • McDonald's: China Supplier Concern Is An Opportunity [View article]
    movies--i agree with you. true innovation and is what's required here, not simply menu additions. absent a real game-changer product, that won't move the needle much. I was pleased to hear that they are expanding their McCafe coffee line into grocery stores (I think they've already tested it out in Canada), but at $7.29/per 12 oz bag, but why would I pay the same amount for McDonald's coffee as Peets? I don't think the perception is that McDonald's coffee deserves the same price point as other grocery store offerings.

    I don't think MCD is going away any time soon, but i'm not seeing anything that's breaking MCD out of stagnation.
    Aug 20 10:41 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • McDonald's eyes 2015 launch for McCafe coffee at retail stores [View news story]
    good move, but am surprised the price point is so high. I expect $7.29 for a 12 oz bag from Starbucks, not McDonalds.

    http://bit.ly/1kTv0iC
    Aug 20 12:05 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Our Retirement Portfolio Business Plan - Legacy Edition - Part Two [View article]
    blueokie, scott--great points. another problem with beta is that since it's a past calculation, it's not incorporating new fundamental information. so GE may have a high beta, but that number isn't taking into account GE's spinoff of Synchrony, which is an attempt to derisk its financial arm. vice versa, if a company takes on a huge amount of debt, that won't show up as a higher beta either.

    also, since I never know what time frame each finance site uses to calculate beta, the number doesn't have much meaning for me. According to Yahoo Finance, AGNC has a beta of .13, DX is .85, MAIN is .48, AMZN is .77, AFL is 1.62. Those numbers may or may not be accurate, but they have no bearing on how risky/non-risky I believe those equities to be.
    Aug 19 11:13 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Dividend-Growth-Devoid Income Portfolio [View article]
    what concerns me in the discussion of high yielders is that I rarely hear a discussion of an exit/sell strategy with these stocks beyond the decision to sell once a dividend has already been cut. often by that time, the stock has already taken a deep dive and an investor who sells then will face large capital losses.

    a select few may feel comfortable enough to hold onto their mREITs, BDCs, etc. all the way down since their div yield is going up, but I think most investors will have a max pain threshold that they should think about before they purchase these kinds of companies. after all, traders set tight stop losses with high beta stocks.
    Aug 19 08:41 PM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Hard Times Will Continue At These Iconic American Retail Plays [View article]
    Brett--if short term you believe that all are dead money, which of the three do you believe has the best intermediate/long term prospects?
    Aug 19 02:52 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Wal-Mart: The Time To Buy Is When No One Likes A Quality Dividend Company [View article]
    WMT and MCD are two of my biggest underperformers in my portfolio over the past two years, and whereas I'm not particularly optimistic about MCD, I like what I've been hearing and seeing about WMT's future plans. It's tough to move the growth needle with either business, but I think WMT's Neighborhood Market concept in more convenient urban centers is exactly where they should be concentrating their energies, as well as their move into inexpensive organic food and Price First lines, and Savings Catcher app which will make it way easier for frugal schmugals to save without having to compare ads. on the other hand, MCD's new strategy of making their menu smaller and creating more efficient prep stations just don't feel innovative enough.

    MCD's yield and div growth may be higher right now, but long term, I believe WMT's investment in Neighborhood Markets will pay off with higher dividends.
    Aug 18 11:41 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
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