Seeking Alpha

kolpin

kolpin
Send Message
View as an RSS Feed
View kolpin's Comments BY TICKER:
Latest  |  Highest rated
  • Stocks Are Two-Faced, And One Is A Pathological Liar [View article]
    David--there are many flavors of total return investors, just as there are many types of DGIers.

    and while Mr. Swedroe may not be among them, many total return investors such as myself do place importance on dividends. just as many of us find earnings, value, and capital appreciation equally important. there are no "favorite children" here.
    Mar 10 01:09 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Spectra Energy: Gas Utility With Plenty Of Catalysts [View article]
    thanks jon/rsmth for your responses. I am considering selling my KMI in the next few months and am looking for a replacement. SE just might fit the bill.
    Mar 9 08:07 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Stocks You Can Hold Long After The Market Peak [View article]
    i couldn't agree more, Rich.

    while TDR can be an important consideration for DGI investors, it's no shortcut for doing due diligence on the nuts and bolts of a company. If you substitute a formula for reading up on a company's business, delving into their financials or tracking an earnings report, you miss the bigger picture.

    People were high on WMT last year b/c of their 18% dividend increase and then were shocked by this year's 2% increase, but the reality is, it wouldn't have been such a big surprise if they had been tracking WMT's metrics (such as declining same store sales) all along.
    Mar 2 06:59 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Rogers Communications, Inc. - Dividend Fact Sheet [View article]
    Great point, Show Me.

    One of the reasons Morningstar lowered their fair value estimate for RCI for the third time since last year, (from $60 originally to $44 a share) was the Canadian dollar, which has weakened by 9-10% relative to the U.S. dollar. Growth in revenue and cash flow has also slowed significantly, and RCI also overpaid for airwaves during Canada's recent spectrum auction.

    I'm long RCI currently, but I may end up selling it.
    Mar 1 07:08 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Packaged Foods Payouts - Whose Dividend Payouts Are Healthier: General Mills Or Kellogg? [View article]
    David--I also enjoy your comparisons. and if you're taking future analysis requests, may I be so bold as to suggest defense stocks or stocks in the healthcare arena?
    Feb 28 02:42 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Spectra Energy: Gas Utility With Plenty Of Catalysts [View article]
    do you believe that SE is currently under/over or fairly valued?
    Feb 28 01:14 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Deere Chooses Not To Raise The Dividend; What's Next? [View article]
    Spangler--perhaps you already answered my question, but I was curious if DE gave any specific business-related reason (or if any reason can be inferred) for the dividend freeze.
    Feb 27 02:42 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Are High-Yield Equities Riskier Than Dividend Growth Stocks? [View article]
    CoBee--I don't think you are missing anything. In fact, I just realized that the bottom page 5 of the Heartland study references the Merrill list I provided, so the two studies are in tandem with one another.

    I think it all comes down to expectation and of course historical yield. JNJ has historically averaged a 3.25-3.5% yield over the past few years, but now sits at 2.9%. so I think our perception of what constitutes "high yield" may have to change given rising stock prices.
    Feb 27 12:33 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Are High-Yield Equities Riskier Than Dividend Growth Stocks? [View article]
    CoBeeMan/Be Here Now--

    Merrill Lynch conducted a similar study and additionally came up with examples of stocks. Note that their Quintiles are numbered differently but they came up with the same conclusion of finding dividend payers but avoiding yield traps. Look for stocks which will participate in the cyclical recovery with low payout ratios, cash on hand, a global footprint, low interest rate sensitivity, stable growth.

    GE, WFC, CVX, etc.

    http://read.bi/1ccnM5o
    Feb 27 11:50 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Target Shrugs Off The Naysayers To Charge Higher [View article]
    I really debated filling out my TGT position before vs after earnings, and unfortunately decided to wait to see how the report went. on the sunny side though, I'm finally break-even!

    in hindsight, I think TGT did a good job of managing (lowering) expectations coming into this earnings report. however with Q1 expectations raised now and longer term headwinds still present, I'm still cautious.
    Feb 27 12:27 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • DGI Novice - Trying To Do It Right [View instapost]
    thanks, nice of you to say. imho, you've already solicited some of the cream of the crop advice from richjoy.

    what I like about the morningstar portfolio tracker (free version) is that I can look at portfolio's performance over many different time frames--1 week, 1 month, 3 months, 2009, 2010, etc. I believe SA only offers a few time frames.

    in terms of your selling guidelines, I'll be interested to see what comes out of your analysis/probationary period if one of your stocks issues a paltry dividend raise or freezes the dividend. (e.g. INTC, WMT, KMB, DE) it does seem wise to look at each on a case by case basis rather than automatically sell.

    also agree with rich on not selling automatically due to a split/spinoff/acquisit... in fact, many look at this as an unlocking of shareholder value, and stocks often thrive post-spin-off. take a look at PSX/COP, ABBV/ABT as recent examples.
    Feb 26 12:45 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Will The Allure Of Dividend Growth Continue? [View article]
    thanks for taking us through your thought process, chowder. I think you illustrate so very well that buying/selling decisions are often involved, multi-step thought processes rather than simply rules or formulas. every DGI portfolio should look unique, due to the age of the investor, amount of $ to invest, etc.
    Feb 25 09:59 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Stocks For 2014: Are Dividend Paying Cyclical Stocks Acceptable Investments For Retirement Portfolios? - Part 6 [View article]
    I would only add a bit of color to your thoughts on price volatility and income vs total return investors, as I have observed that both kinds of investors can be guilty of being short term/emotional investors, but in slightly different ways.

    while a total return investor may experience great discomfort at seeing one of his stocks drop in price, I believe that an income investor experiences great discomfort when one of his stocks makes only a small dividend increase. just as a total return investor may sell a stock if he's not getting the price appreciation he wants, an income investor may sell a stock if he's not getting the dividend increase he wants.

    but is it possible that both negative price swings and small dividend increases are simply temporary signs of a company's ill health?

    if a stock drops from 30 to 25 in a year, should an investor automatically sell? I think most would agree the answer is no--one should look to see if the company's bigger fundamental story is still intact. so what if the company's dividend growth drops, from a 15% increase one year to 3% the next? Here, I think more of us are divided. some would sell automatically, some wouldn't, some would put on probation.

    so if short term price volatility is not the sign of a stock's true value, perhaps short term income growth (from one year to the next) isn't a sign of a stock's true value either?

    hopefully I didn't go terribly off topic with this comment, but you got me thinkin', Chuck! thanks!
    Feb 25 09:49 PM | 9 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Kimberly Clark Corp declares $0.84 dividend [View news story]
    I agree with you Scott/mbn about the story behind the dividend growth #s. that's why I'm ok with hanging onto my WMT stock despite the small dividend increase. despite immediate short term issues, I believe their push into small stores will be rewarded.
    Feb 25 08:08 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Will The Allure Of Dividend Growth Continue? [View article]
    thanks for the update, scuba--that's exactly where i'm at too.

    interesting note, KMB just raised their dividend 3.7%--which is also a rather small increase for another dividend stalwart. they said that it's to maintain an appropriate payout given the spin-off of their health care business.

    I don't know if other people are dumping KMB too, given that its yield is only a tad higher (2.95 vs. 2,62) than WMT. I'm not long KMB, but I buy their reasoning for the small increase just as I buy WMT's push into small stores. for me, the story behind the dividend growth # is just as important as the actual #.

    time will tell if the story was a tall tale or not!
    Feb 25 08:06 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
COMMENTS STATS
841 Comments
539 Likes