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kolpin

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  • DIY Dividend Investors Club (Part 3): Stocks To Watch And To Buy Now (Consumer Staples) [View article]
    you may know this already, but Matt Coffina of Morningstar's StockInvestor recently purchased PETM for their portfolio. He seems to think its significantly undervalued and has a dividend/nice share buyback plan to boot.
    Jun 17 07:09 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • A Current Review Of Dividend Safety Superstars - Part Two [View article]
    chowder--true, they are up this year as compared to the market, but now many of them are way overvalued and I wouldn't be surprised if many of them come down to earth in the next few months.

    if you look at 2013, many utilities (though not all) drastically underperformed the market last year. is a 4% yield and measly earnings/dividend growth enough to combat that kind of lack of capital appreciation? I'd just as soon buy a JNJ or a PEP with slightly less yield and a better chance of total return.

    SO: .73%
    ED: 3.96%
    SCG: 4.76%
    XEL: 8.76
    PNY: 9.87
    AEP: 14.08
    WEC: 16.11
    LNT: 21.79
    AVA: 21.98
    VVC: 25.6
    D: 29.23
    Jun 15 05:37 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • A Current Review Of Dividend Safety Superstars - Part Two [View article]
    Bob, I also used to own CAT, though sold a bit too soon this year and missed on a bit of upside. But the good news is that it trades in a range, and I was able to buy from $80 to $83 on 3-4 occasions. I also realized that I don't feel comfortable owning the DE and CATs of the world, I prefer owning banks for my spice!
    Jun 14 11:00 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • A Current Review Of Dividend Safety Superstars - Part Two [View article]
    chowder--are you saying that a utility with lower dividend growth will have higher or lower price volatility? ED (I think it's a safety ranking of 1) has obviously underperformed D in recent history, although I wouldn't call it volatile exactly. on the other hand, PPL is a utility also with low dividend growth with a safety ranking of 3--that would seem like a big red flag to me.

    I have much to learn to about utilities.
    Jun 13 10:06 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Putting Companies On 'Dividend Growth Probation' [View article]
    lol, but you're an investing warrior, a former Marine! put down the beer, the time is now!
    Jun 13 08:13 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Putting Companies On 'Dividend Growth Probation' [View article]
    heg--I don't know either stock well, but at first blush--their earnings look very lumpy.

    http://bit.ly/1ltVuoL

    with CINF for example, they were down in 2007 and 2008, and then down again in 2010 and 2011. don't know why, but I like a little more consistency. think it'd need further investigation.
    Jun 13 07:46 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Putting Companies On 'Dividend Growth Probation' [View article]
    haha, I gotta put the chowder mantra on my refrigerator for those days I'm really not in the mood to do my 10k run!
    Jun 13 06:54 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • A Current Review Of Dividend Safety Superstars - Part Two [View article]
    thanks Berk, (because I've never been to my library and they don't have Valueline anyway, but they do have a pool).

    interesting to see so many utilities at a ranking of 2 as opposed to 1, and RCI at a 3. while one would assume utes to be less volatile in price, they aren't necessarily so, further food for thought.

    agree with Paul above--examining price performance has its obvious limits, and financial strength is obviously a more impt metric. but it's still fun to look!
    Jun 13 12:45 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • A Current Review Of Dividend Safety Superstars - Part Two [View article]
    I don't either, but I did take a quick look at the Dow 30, which they offer for free. The usual consumer staples suspects are rated 1 for Safety, but what I found interesting to see is that mega cap technology stocks--MSFT, IBM, CSCO, INTC are all rated for 1 for Safety as well. Some investors may avoid the technology sector due to perceived risk, but these four stocks in particular are about as safe as you can get! I look forward to AAPL joining the list!
    Jun 13 11:49 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • A Current Review Of Dividend Safety Superstars - Part Two [View article]
    Hi Bob--out of curiosity, how do your stocks fare in terms of Valueline's Safety Ratings? I'd assume your lists would be pretty on par with theirs (meaning most of your stocks would get 1 or 2s in safety. it would be interesting to compare.

    They also backtested their stocks through 10 major market declines dating back to the 70s. the chart is about halfway down the page under "the penalty and reward of risk":
    http://bit.ly/SG7xE4

    I found it interesting that Safety Rank 1 and 2 experience declines that were fairly close with each other, but the real drop-off occurs at Safety Rank 3 and above.
    Jun 13 11:03 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Putting Companies On 'Dividend Growth Probation' [View article]
    Mr. APU caught my eye on the drop today too, but I really hate doing taxes and anything that makes doing them more difficult. wish he had a general partner!
    Jun 12 10:58 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Putting Companies On 'Dividend Growth Probation' [View article]
    as long as oil prices remain high, i think COP is a great stock to own in one's portfolio (though I believe currently overvalued). but as an upstream company, COP's divvy growth is gonna drastically slow when oil prices drop, so XOM/CVX are better all-weather companies if one's emphasis is on rising income.
    Jun 12 10:55 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Putting Companies On 'Dividend Growth Probation' [View article]
    it kind of makes you wonder if WMT was too generous with raising its dividend, thereby raising investors' expectations to match previous years. if you smooth over the dividend raises above, WMT still comes out substantially ahead of KO. but psychologically speaking, investors look at the last increase and are alarmed.

    likewise, I wonder if TGT would have been better off with an 8-10% increase this year, resetting investor expectations to a more reasonable level.
    Jun 12 11:25 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • DIY Dividend Investors Club: 'Fairly Valued' Dividend Stocks That You Could Buy Today [View article]
    Thanks for the list! the only stock which surprised me on your list was WTR. Two quick and dirty valuation methods I use--S&P Capital IQ gives it a fair value of $18.60, and the average dividend yield of WTR over the past 5 years is usually 2.73 (right now it's 2.44)--say that it's still quite richly valued.

    like most utes today, I think WTR could stand another good 5% dip at the very least. the good news is that many have already corrected from the highs and look quite weak. look forward to that article!
    Jun 12 10:03 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Putting Companies On 'Dividend Growth Probation' [View article]
    Mike--I wasn't suggesting that you were being hijacked by any rule, as much as suggesting that there are a myriad of more in-depth, fundamental ways to evaluate WMT's growth prospects in addition to dividend yield and dividend growth. if you're doing that, great! Not all investors do so, and I myself am just starting to learn how to dig in. (esp with respect to understanding the particular quirks of individual sectors and industries.)

    So hopefully in 40 short years, I'll be halfway to being a genius!
    Jun 12 12:28 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
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