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kolpin

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  • Retirement Strategy: AT&T - Taking Advantage Of An Opportunity To Increase Income Right Now [View article]
    is anyone buying VZ here as well?
    Dec 10, 2014. 12:32 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Recent Buy: The Walt Disney Co. [View article]
    I bought my very first tranche of DIS at $81 on the mini-dip in Oct, but not nearly enough!! I am soooo tempted to buy more today to collect the dividend, but I'm also equally tempted to buy tomm to capture the ex-dividend dip. it just shows how hard it is to buy this stock at fair value.
    Dec 10, 2014. 12:28 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • How To Profit From A Rebound In Oil Prices [View article]
    I'm watching and waiting as well. it seems like the price of oil will stabilize somewhere between $50 and $60, so I'm kind of tracking that before I make any purchases. I could see energy stocks still falling another 5-10% from here, but once we hit bottom, the bounce always happens so darn fast. you gotta have a quick trigger finger.
    Dec 10, 2014. 12:23 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Caterpillar Is In Trouble [View article]
    CAT has a pretty good level of support around 80, if you make another add-to buy.
    Dec 10, 2014. 12:16 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Valuations, Goals And The Stock Selection Process [View article]
    chowder--interesting theory about willing to pay up for your core stocks vs your supporting vs your spec plays.

    I tend to do something a bit different, at least in theory. when i'm purchasing a slow growth stock, like a telecom or ute, I actually think it's more important to be rigorous about purchasing at a discount to fair value. overpaying for low growth is gonna hurt more over the long run, as earnings will take time to catch up to valuation and the stock price will eventually stagnate and revert back to fair value. now if you buy a stock like MA, I think you can be a little more flexible about buying closer to fair value because it's growing so quickly. spending a few dollars extra at the outset won't matter as much 5-10 years from now.

    of course, I regard a stock like MA to be closer to a core stock for me than a spec play, even though I bought it more for capital appreciation than the dividend!
    Dec 10, 2014. 11:10 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • What You Can Do To Perhaps Avoid Dividend Cuts [View article]
    Bob--

    have you considered looking at div cuts in other bear markets besides the financial crisis? when you look at 2007-8, you'll find that the big banks were obviously the main cutters since they were the main industry in crisis--but how about back in 2000-2, during the Internet bubble? or during the 1973-4 bear market where the oil crisis was one of the main causes? perhaps energy stocks were the big dividend cutters back in the 70s, not banks.

    Jeff Paul wrote a great series way back when on dividend cutters, that was really superb. it may help with your research.

    http://seekingalpha.co...

    http://seekingalpha.co...

    http://seekingalpha.co...
    Dec 9, 2014. 10:10 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Dividend Growth Investing: How I Derive The Top 40 (Part 1) [View article]
    Thanks for taking us through your thought process…I truly admire the way you think. I confess that I tend to be a right-brained investor who's probably more guilty than most of including many of my stock favorites as potential candidates to buy even if they don't fit strict yield or DG history parameters. I also tend to look at spinoffs and mergers as often pluses for businesses instead of negatives, always on a case by case basis of course.

    i may have missed why EMR not make your list. as a 2.96 yielder, its most recent increase was 9.3%, and the increase before that was 4.87%?
    Dec 8, 2014. 05:54 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The New Nifty Fifty: A Comparative Performance Analysis [View article]
    minuteman/Scott--it's a good point you make about overvaluation, b/c in looking at my portfolio, I have a number of smaller, very overvalued positions which I have chosen to continue to hold, simply b/c I like the long term business (NKE, for example) and I'm willing to risk a pullback and add more.

    for this larger almost 10% position, TXN, a pullback would certainly be much more painful to my portfolio. but while it's overvalued, I like the near term outlook for the company.

    also, I think there comes a time with a stock when if you've owned it long enough, you kind of get immune to valuation. (this stock was purchased for me in 1967) maybe that's not a very smart thing to do, lol! I follow the business enough to know it's not going the way of Kodak, but other than that, I've been a bit lazy in making any other decisions with it.
    Dec 8, 2014. 03:57 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Update: McDonald's Same-Stores Go From Bad To Much Worse [View article]
    unfortunately Chipotle IS the incubator now!

    http://bit.ly/1ytOike

    I tried Shop House (Asian) which was awesomely delicious and quick and customized, and now they've developed a pizza concept too.
    Dec 8, 2014. 03:16 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • The New Nifty Fifty: A Comparative Performance Analysis [View article]
    a question for you all--what would you do if a position became vastly outsized through sheer capital appreciation, let's say growing from a 2% position in a 50 stock portfolio to a 10% position? It's obviously a nice issue to have, but selling it off would trigger huge cap gains taxes and rob you of your income goose. I can try to build up my other positions obviously, but it won't bring down that stock's weighting substantially.
    Dec 8, 2014. 03:13 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Tax-Loss Harvesting For BDCs [View article]
    BSP--I was going to ask the same question. I wasn't sure if 2015 simply meant the end of tax loss harvesting or if other macro trends were at work.

    Buzz--thanks for answering. how would increased bank regulation affect BDCs…aren't they exempt? or in that scenario, are you positing that money would flow from banks to BDCs?
    Dec 8, 2014. 11:53 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Rarely Discussed: The Double Margin Of Safety Dividend Approach [View article]
    Rose--I'm not long BBL or personally have a desire to invest in that space, but BBL is the 800 pound gorilla in the mining space. the quality lies in its superior management, diverse long-life assets (iron ore, coal, copper), diverse geography, stable cash flow, etc. I'm guessing you're looking for a numerical rating of sorts, but once you read up on BBL, you'll get a sense that it's the highest quality mining conglomerate. Its safety rating is never gonna be a 1 or 2 because it's tied to commodity price swings.

    Dividend Mantra did a nice write-up here: http://bit.ly/1A8xWL7
    Dec 8, 2014. 11:08 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • United Technologies Offers Overlooked Dividend Growth [View article]
    I bought UTX throughout the year at $103 and $98. When a stock beats on earnings, raises its guidance, AND the stock price dips, its the best of all buying worlds.

    it'll be interesting to hear what comes out of the investor day on the 11th.
    Dec 8, 2014. 10:47 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Recent Buy: BHP Billiton PLC [View article]
    I don't doubt that BBL is an undervalued quality stock to own, but its dependence on commodity prices requires a high degree of risk tolerance for an investor. much like investing in other cyclical plays, (ESV, CAT, DE come to mind) you have to time your investment just right or you can get burned by wild price swings. I personally am able to SWAN much more with the integrated oils, XOM, CVX, etc.
    Dec 8, 2014. 10:33 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Bank Of America: Are You Ready For The Next Move To The Upside? [View article]
    RS--good to see you back aboard the BAC train. it was actually one of your articles on BAC that convinced me to buy at $7 a few years back. I have stayed long however, and continue to see more upside at least til the end of next year. I had predicted we'd get to $18-20 at the end of 2014, and it looks like my prediction will come true by the skin of my teeth!
    Dec 8, 2014. 10:24 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
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