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kolpin

kolpin
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  • Dividends Vs. Capital Appreciation: Wrong Question [View article]
    mike/Chowder---

    I have no problem "paying up" for quality growth stocks either, but don't like to overpay--meaning I cap my investments to growth stocks under a PE of 30 (i think that anything over that and valuation becomes pretty disconnected from earnings).

    chowder, I'd be interested to see if you arrive at some kind of chowder golden growth formula. I don't adhere to a formula per say, but i'm long stocks like MA, GILD, ESRX, AMGN, SLB, and I think all of them were at a discount to M*'s FV when I purchased them.

    however, I have been eying GOOGL and DIS for quite sometime, and both of those are overvalued. I don't think either would qualify for your earnings growth is > PE ratio formula.
    Sep 24, 2014. 12:39 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Halliburton Investors Get Another Bite At The Apple [View article]
    Ray/Dag1996--

    I'm long SLB, HAL's fraternal twin and topped off my position recently.

    I'm not long any offshore drillers (like ESV and SDRL) but have seen them decline precipitously as of late. are the issues which are impacting the drillers specific to them (e.g. declining day rates, increased drilling costs), or are there industry-wide issues beyond weakening crude oil prices that could potentially push service companies like HAL/SLB down further?
    Sep 23, 2014. 05:13 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • When To Trim? [View article]
    Inz--I agree that there's no rush to deploy cash as it seems like better values lay ahead, but if you believe that pipelines are interest rate sensitive, why not put your cash towards an underweighted, undervalued stock in your portfolio that would either benefit from higher interest rates or at the very least isn't correlated? then your sale would kinda make sense to me, so it doesn't feel like you're simply just shifting money around.

    from a glance at one of your portfolio articles, potential candidates nearing fair value could include GE, UL, AFL, GIS, WAG
    Sep 23, 2014. 01:59 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • You Might Be A High Yield Sucker If... [View article]
    I think one of the main reasons why i've shied away from high yielders isn't because they're inherently risky investments, but because many investors are loose hands with them. if everyone is low conviction with a stock, who's left to buy when the share price tanks or when the dividend is cut?

    if MCD fell by 30% off the highs, I think that many investors would be scooping up shares hand over fist. But now that SDRL has tanked 30%, I think some investors have sold, some are holding and nervous, and a much smaller group are scooping up shares.

    in addition, while a dividend cut would be disastrous to the share price of any stock, I think that the selling pressure would be greatly magnified in a high yielder.

    others may have a different comfort level/risk tolerance and I respect that.
    Sep 22, 2014. 11:11 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • When To Trim? [View article]
    thanks Inz for the update! it sounds like it was a good decision, because you're able to SWAN with a smaller position.

    so the big question is, what's your replacement stock? or are you just holding cash for now? it might be interesting for you to keep track of this sale and your subsequent buy in order to figure out if the stock swap ended up being a good decision.
    Sep 22, 2014. 10:42 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Surviving A Worst-Case Scenario To Become A Dividend Growth Investor [View article]
    Eric--

    I'm not long MAT (long HAS instead), but have you considered averaging down on your position here or perhaps slightly below in the 30-32 zone? I think a case could also be made that MAT is not a fundamentally broken stock and is reaching value territory here.
    Sep 22, 2014. 01:22 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Surviving A Worst-Case Scenario To Become A Dividend Growth Investor [View article]
    Mike--

    So taking the lessons you've learned a step further, what would Mike 2.0 do with your GE stock during the financial crisis? do you think you would have sold during the first dividend freeze, announced in Dec '08? or would you have sold when the first dividend cut was announced in June '09? Or would the newly reformed you be buying more on the way down? Or maybe you'd do it exactly the same way again?
    Sep 18, 2014. 11:59 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Can A Successful Dividend Portfolio Be Assembled In 2014? - Part 3 [View article]
    Bob--I'm surprised to see DRI on the list. Perhaps it technically adheres to the chowder rule based on the 5 yr div growth number, but didn't it freeze its dividend? I believe there are fundamental ongoing issues with the company and could not in good conscience recommend the stock as an investment to a risk averse retiree.

    Eric Landis wrote a very good article on DRI here: http://seekingalpha.co...
    Sep 18, 2014. 09:56 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Dividend Contenders: 16 Increases Expected By The End Of November [View article]
    my boring tech stocks are blowing my staples stocks away in terms of divvy growth.

    in addition to Mr. Softie, TXN declared $0.34/share quarterly dividend, a 13.33% increase from the prior dividend of $0.30.
    Sep 18, 2014. 09:35 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • When To Trim? [View article]
    Inzkeeper---wonderful article that delves into one of the things that investors (including myself) need to improve upon most--the art of selling!

    my initial reaction is to say, STOP, don't sell!!! sure, a 20% return in a few months is nice--but it's small potatoes. but why not hold onto ROST for the next 20 years and get a 1000%+ return? if anything, sell your losers or any stock with deteriorating fundamentals, not your winners.

    Thus, I'm inclined to hold onto a position despite overvaluation, because I probably won't be able to time buying back in when the stock becomes fairly valued. and quite often the fair value price is higher than my initial buy price anyway.

    however, given a scenario where a stock is vastly overvalued AND represents a significant overweighting in your portfolio, I could see how trimming that position might reduce your portfolio's risk. (I think SA Contributor Part Time Investor utilizes such a selling guideline.) I have a couple of positions that are overweighted in my portfolio, but instead of selling or trimming them, I simply make sure to add to other positions to bring their weights up. it takes longer to rebalance, but it has the same effect.
    Sep 18, 2014. 01:30 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Seeking High-Quality Companies With Sales And Dividend Growth, And A Reasonable Price [View article]
    I just added to my BAX position as well.

    over the past year, I've been purposefully trying to build up the Healthcare holdings in my portfolio so it's now my 3rd largest weighted sector. it's a growing macro trend that only promises to get bigger!
    Sep 18, 2014. 11:51 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Please Help Us Pick Next Week's Outstanding Performance Award Winners [View article]
    I'd like to nominate Alexander Poulos and his spot-on, incisive series of WAG articles over the years. I have doubled my original investment in 2 years.

    http://seekingalpha.co...

    http://seekingalpha.co...

    http://seekingalpha.co...
    Sep 17, 2014. 10:01 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Omega Healthcare Investors Continues To Impress - I Am Adding To My Pile [View article]
    fyi, I see that Josh Peters/Morningstar just added more HCN to his Harvest portfolio this morning.
    Sep 12, 2014. 05:43 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • DGI For Dummies: Managing Your Dividend Growth Portfolio [View article]
    Mike--

    Sorry, you had a big shiny bulls-eye on your head!

    I can't help but wonder if sometimes our attitudes towards a company are colored by our investment success with them. Since I've only owned MCD stock for a couple of years, my return on investment has been negligible--so I guess I'm kind of holding MCD very lightly. meaning, it wouldn't take much bad news for me to be tempted to sell. Same with TGT. But take a stock like MSFT which I've owned since 1994 and am up almost 1700% on my investment---it would take much more than a few bad earnings reports for me to even consider selling.

    bottom line--it's easy to love a company that's showing lots of green in your portfolio and even easier to hate the red ones!

    anyway, that's enough investor psychology 101 for the day. class dismissed!
    Sep 9, 2014. 07:58 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • DGI For Dummies: Managing Your Dividend Growth Portfolio [View article]
    Mike--

    You're optimistic about MCD's future, and that's great. for the record, I'm certainly not of the mindset that MCD is a failing company, or down and out long term. but I am a more opportunistic investor in that I don't mind putting money from a languishing, fairly valued quality company that's missing on earnings into a fairly valued quality company that's beating earnings and with better total return.

    let me ask you this--what if I took out the MCD symbol from our comments above and put TGT into it? does it change any of your opinions/thoughts/opti...
    Sep 8, 2014. 09:35 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
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