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kolpin

kolpin
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  • It's New! It's Nifty! It's The Dividend Growth 50! [View article]
    mike--have you considered converting as little as $1-2k a year to your Roth? Such a small amount may not bump you up to a higher tax bracket, and that way you can spread the tax pain over many years. I learned that lesson the hard way when I once converted $30k of a Trad IRA to a Roth in one year---even though I wasn't earning any income at the time, it still created a lot more taxes than I expected. So now I just convert a tiny bit each year.

    for example, I just took advantage of converting $2K of my BP position three days ago from my Trad IRA to a Roth. I chose that specific stock because it was down about 15% from my original purchase price. Thank God, it's going back up!
    Dec 19, 2014. 11:39 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • It's New! It's Nifty! It's The Dividend Growth 50! [View article]
    Mike--Yay!!

    What a fabulous idea to conduct such an experiment, and truly generous of you to share it with the SA community. I really look forward to following it from quarter to quarter and year to year. I'm also really excited for you to now own many stocks which you have eyed for some time but never quite met the yield you wanted: BDX, QCOM, UTX, V, SBUX, etc. I have a feeling you won't regret these lower yielders over the long term.

    Will any of these purchases in this portfolio affect your purchases for your other portfolio? i.e. Now that you own UTX here, you won't duplicate buying it for your other portfolio? Or if a stock in this portfolio that you weren't interested in before (let's say WFC) exceeds your expectations, will you now potentially consider buying it for your real portfolio?
    Dec 19, 2014. 11:32 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Amgen Announces 30 Percent Increase In 2015 First Quarter Dividend [View article]
    long, very long AMGN.
    Dec 17, 2014. 06:35 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Boeing Is A Buy After Recent Dividend And Buyback Increases [View article]
    I've eyed BA time and again, but one of the main reasons I've stayed away is it's uber-cyclicality. In a bear market, this stock absolutely tanks. So any shareholder must have an ironclad stomach to withstand the price volatility.

    During each the last 4 recessions, it was one of the worst performers in the Dow:
    http://bit.ly/1pqkj7M

    2008: Down 52%
    2001: Down 36%
    1990: Down 19%
    1980: Down 14%

    This is in no way a knock on the quality of the stock, simply a word of caution.
    Dec 17, 2014. 03:32 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • 2015 Healthcare Sector Predictions [View article]
    Leonard--are there any healthcare stocks or sub-industries where you have a negative view going forward?

    also, I'd be curious on your thoughts re. GSK (pipeline, dividend), BAX (and its spinoff), and ABBV.
    Dec 16, 2014. 06:02 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • McDonald's: Expect A Full Recovery In 2015 [View article]
    actually, my local california chipotle is 10.40 for a medium soda, barbacoa bowl/burrito and chips (lower for chicken and sofritas and higher for steak). vs 8.29 for for a mcdonalds customized burger with medium fries and soda.

    that's a $2.11 difference.

    in the branding business, it's all about perception. it doesn't matter if the reality is different. do customers perceive chipotle to be higher quality food than mcdonalds? yes. do customers perceive chipotle to be healthier? yes, even if it isn't. do customers perceive chipotle to be a more substantial, filling meal. yes.

    so mcdonald's is betting that millennials want to save $2.11 so badly that they will purchase what they perceive to be a less filling, lower quality, less healthy meal. that's a terrible value proposition.
    Dec 16, 2014. 05:57 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • McDonald's: Expect A Full Recovery In 2015 [View article]
    thanks, but I am a millennial, and I would absolutely spend $8 on my customized Chipotle and customized Five Guys meals, not $8 on a lower quality customized McDonalds's meal. (I would spend $4 to $5 at Mickey Ds).

    sorry, but McDonalds occupies a lower price point, and if McDonald's solution is simply to copycat more premium brands they are not going to increase their same store sales.
    Dec 16, 2014. 03:20 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • 2014 Watch-List [View instapost]
    thanks so much for sharing your watchlist, chowder. you are a very generous, tireless teacher!

    is this watchlist for Project $3 million or for your portfolio? I'm assuming you wouldn't buy DNKN/SBUX for yourself?

    I bought MA, UTX, CSX at different times this year when they fell into my buy ranges. Also long many others, including GPC, NSC and SBUX.
    Dec 16, 2014. 12:24 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • What Would You Do With A Million Dollars? [View article]
    glad you ended up selling SDRL, and even happier for you that this was only a model portfolio. ha!
    Dec 16, 2014. 12:17 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Dover Corporation And How Do You Rank Your Holdings? [View article]
    good question, small. and thoughtful answer, rich.

    Rich--as you sell off your cyclicals in pieces, do you then expect to have sold 100% or near 100% of those stocks as we trend towards a bear market?

    small--I believe that chowder has bought DE in his Project $3 million portfolio with the intention of holding through all cycles. keep in mind, that his portfolio is for someone in their 20s/30s.

    i'm in my 30s, but see myself emulating Rich's method. obviously timing is everything, but some positions I'll sell off entirely (my banks such as BAC). and other positions such as EMR and DOV, I'd like to trim but still ideally keep a small position in the stock--unless the fundamentals change altogether.
    Dec 16, 2014. 11:53 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • McDonald's: Expect A Full Recovery In 2015 [View article]
    while the "Create Your Taste" option is a laudable attempt to attract millennials and win back business from fast casuals, it's won't be enough to juice up same store sales. it comes with a higher price point (repelling price-conscious millennials), it won't be available via drive-thru (where MCD conducts 70% of its business), and it will increase wait times--which is already a long-standing issue.

    try again, MCD. I'm rooting for you to recover, but I see it taking much, much longer than a year.
    Dec 15, 2014. 09:00 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • How Long Does A 'Typical' Oil Downcycle Last? [View article]
    so how closely do energy stocks (the integrated majors) track oil prices, in terms of price drops and time frame?
    Dec 15, 2014. 08:50 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Project $3 Million - KMI [View instapost]
    chowder--I didn't see you mention this above, but does it bother you that Jefferson Research lists the Balance Sheet as now falling to "Weakest" and Valuation has now increased to "Most Risk?"

    it's not a positive trend, but perhaps can be explained by the merger?

    I also poked around some of Fidelity's other reports and the firm GMI analyzes accounting and governance risk (the report is entitled "GMI AGRĀ® Research Report - KMI") and it gave KMI a score of 10, Very Aggressive --meaning that KMI has higher risk than 90% of all companies.

    Again, it's possible that it's merger related? Or perhaps related to the non-GAAP accounting measures that Hedgeye attacked them on last year? i'm no finance whiz, but thought you might have some insight.
    Dec 15, 2014. 01:05 AM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • BHP Billiton: A High-Yielding Wait For The Iron Ore Turnaround [View article]
    thanks for your response, Mike. I'm slowly learning how to fine-tune my antenna--how much industry/sector/company news is worth paying attention to, and how much of it is simply noise?
    Dec 14, 2014. 04:37 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • What You Can Do To Perhaps Avoid Dividend Cuts [View article]
    and just to add, I think Josh tends to be quite conservative with his investments. he bailed on INTC (a bit early) due to lack o' dividend growth, and he bailed on KMP (a bit early as well). obviously not infallible, but I think if anything, he errs on the side of taking the path of least risk.
    Dec 13, 2014. 05:36 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
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