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  • Lockheed Martin - Dividends In The Aerospace And Defense Sector  [View article]

    I learn a lot more from "bizarre" and quite frankly humble commenters than mainstream ones who think they know it all.

    If you sincerely don't want me to mention your name to Nicholas, I won't. I don't think it would require too much time on your part, and for all I know he may already have a full list of commenters he wants to talk to. But judging from Mike and Rosenose's responses below (whom I also respect greatly), I do believe you have a few pearls of wisdom that could benefit others.

    After all, you have 98 followers that agree with me!
    May 14, 2015. 12:38 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Lockheed Martin - Dividends In The Aerospace And Defense Sector  [View article]
    I read a good article by Tim McAleenan recently on his Conservative Income Investor site--the gist of it being that some companies are actually cheaper than they appear. He advises investors to peer behind basic metrics like PE ratios and analyze the why. In fact, a high PE ratio may mask a quality company that is actually quite fairly valued or even undervalued.


    "I don’t advocate making decisions based on historical P/E ratios. It can be useful if you control the results for interest rate changes, currency changes, one-time writeoffs, and changes in expected growth from that point onward, but by the time you have done all that you’ve actually analyzed the company rather than relied on something like a Yahoo Chart to make decisions."

    obviously it's up to you to determine if BDX is one of these companies. I myself am interested in BDX, don't think it's overvalued here, but still want the price to come down more. :-)
    May 14, 2015. 12:32 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Lockheed Martin - Dividends In The Aerospace And Defense Sector  [View article]
    Paul--I always learn so much from your well-reasoned, in-depth comments.

    Are you familiar with Nicholas Ward's Learning from the Masters series, where he poses a few questions to esteemed commenters/authors to share their knowledge with the community? http://seekingalpha.co...

    I wouldn't mind throwing your name into the ring, if you're so inclined. I'm sure Mike N. and rosenose would agree with me.
    May 14, 2015. 11:20 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Lockheed Martin - Dividends In The Aerospace And Defense Sector  [View article]
    Mike--I honestly pay no attention to Buy/Sell recommendations of analysts. If you try and follow their every move, you'll be absolutely dizzy from all the effort.

    Take Eva, with a 99 accuracy rating. You'll notice the Buy/Sell recommendations over the past several years on the left side of the 1st page.
    On 7/24 of last year, they upgraded NSC to an Overweight, with a share price of $106.80 (a bit silly in retrospect since the current price is under $100 and has an Underweight Recommendation). Then NSC is downgraded to a hold on 8/2 at $101.20, then back up to an Overweight on 8/7, then a downgrade on 9/18 to Hold, an upgrade to Overweight on 12/5, then a downgrade on 2/11 to Hold, and then a downgrade to Underweight just a day later on 2/12 at $109.11. The current Underweight call remains today at NSC's current price of $97.72.

    It's enough to make your head spin. Did things fundamentally change with NSC with every upgrade and downgrade? No! And if you look closer, EVA simply assigns NSC a score based on how attractively its priced in relation to other stocks within its industry. This automated valuation score is what moves NSC from from Underweight to Overweight--it has nothing to do with the fundamental prospects of NSC.

    The slump in crude oil is what's hurting railroads, but that's why you buy the best energy stocks like CVX and XOM at bargain prices and the best rails like UNP, NSC, and CSX at bargain prices.
    May 14, 2015. 03:01 AM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Investors Advised To Consider Southern Company For Income Portfolios  [View article]
    nice to see that AEP has just earned its 4th star on M*. Officially joining SO in under FV territory. Just set my limit buy order.
    May 13, 2015. 07:50 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Lockheed Martin - Dividends In The Aerospace And Defense Sector  [View article]
    Rose--I'm also tempted to add to my NSC position; it's also at a good discount to Fair value. I think rails are being temporarily hit by crude oil prices. CSX has held up better than the others b/c of a rumor floating around that activist Bill Ackman has a stake in it.

    LMT, IMHO is overvalued.
    May 13, 2015. 10:28 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Learning From The Masters: Q&A Session With Chowder  [View article]
    TF--You've got one vote from me--I'd love to hear from an original person! heh, heh!
    May 12, 2015. 08:21 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Learning From The Masters: Q&A Session With Chowder  [View article]

    Once again, you read my mind. One of the commenters I'm most excited about hearing from is richjoy, and his Growth and Income focused strategy. While he's not contrarian at all to my POV, he offers a much needed variation on the pure DGI philosophy.

    I'm interested to hear more about his recent sales of MO and PM as well as his take on utilities right now.

    Some of the other commenters people have mentioned wanting to hear from are quite intelligent, but have basically modeled themselves after chowder. chowder is brilliant and is so generous with giving advice and we have all learned oodles from him, but now I want to hear from people who don't mimic his moves but think individualistically.
    May 12, 2015. 05:00 PM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Lockheed Martin - Dividends In The Aerospace And Defense Sector  [View article]

    If I weren't already long NSC and CSX and BRK.B (Burlington Northern Santa Fe), I'd probably buy a small position UNP here. I like that UNP is less exposed to coal and has more of a Western geographic reach), and crude oil is still a minimal part of its business. also, UNP rarely comes on sale very often--if it gets down to 100 or under, I might even buy a small position for a trade.

    Incidentally, M* bought UNP for it's Stockinvestor portfolio the other day.
    May 12, 2015. 04:38 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Project $3 Million - Portfolio Management, New Purchase  [View article]

    are you familiar with Morningstar? if you are, feel free to check BDX and VFC's fair value, cause right now M* has given them both 4 stars--which means they're both considered to be under fair value. VFC's FV is $85, which means it's 16% under FV and BDX's FV is $165, which means that it's about 14.5% under FV. S&P says that VFC is 4% overvalued and BDX is 8% undervalued.

    looks like I actually won't need much luck at all to buy both stocks at under fair value, just a little more patience to get the prices I want. but thanks so much anyway!
    May 7, 2015. 01:12 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Project $3 Million - Portfolio Management, New Purchase  [View article]

    to minimize drawdowns in the stock market, one way of going about doing it is to purchase quality companies that are growing earnings/revenues in the double digits with little or no debt, like Mastercard or Visa. Sure, I can't control their stock price fluctuations during a bear market, but I'm quite confident that their businesses will continue churning out profits year after year.

    anyway, we're not in disagreement here. there are multiple ways to skin the cat. i just wanted to put forth the idea that it wouldn't necessarily be a bad decision if a young investor bought MA as their first stock as opposed to KO, or even MA and KO at the same time.
    May 6, 2015. 08:38 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Project $3 Million - Portfolio Management, New Purchase  [View article]
    yes, my GILD did quite well too.

    I'm well beyond the initial stages of investing, but if I were to advise one of my friends in their 20s and 30s, I would tell them not to wait to invest in a company like DIS or SBUX or MA if it came on sale. I'm not concerned that MCD or KO's share price is going to jump to the stratosphere, so if they had to choose between buying a slightly growthier stock like the ones I listed above (again, I'm not referring to a high beta stock like FB) or a consumer staple, I'd probably advise them to go with the growthier stock and then the MCD or KO with their second tranche of money.

    perhaps making opportunistic purchases of higher growth dividend payers concurrently with purchasing the usual DG suspects instead of the more methodical foundation building as you did with Project $3 Million is also a good way of building a portfolio for a young person.
    May 6, 2015. 04:42 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Don't Ditch McDonald's Just Yet  [View article]
    MCD's share price has gone nowhere for MUCH longer than 16 months. in fact, MCD reached the current price level in Dec. 2011--that's 41 months.
    May 6, 2015. 03:46 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Project $3 Million - Portfolio Management, New Purchase  [View article]
    chowder--is it possible that there's a middle ground between buying a utility like SO for one's first investment and FB? Do you believe that a young person would be wrong in targeting a stock like MA or ROST as a first purchase if they were on sale at the time? I know you bought these two stocks much later on in the life of Project $3 Million, but what if you had made them some of your initial purchases? do you believe that would've been a mistake?
    May 6, 2015. 03:26 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Forget The Shopping List: Buy What's On Sale (Part 1)  [View article]

    do you mind sharing what some of your more fairly valued positions are currently?
    May 5, 2015. 08:23 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment