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kolpin

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  • 2 Core Holdings That Belong In Every Biotech Portfolio [View article]
    going forward, do you prefer CELG over AMGN for any reason? I'm long both GILD and AMGN--the latter b/c of the value and dividend.
    Dec 8, 2014. 10:14 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Weak global comps for McDonald's across major segments [View news story]
    worst U.S. monthly sales in a decade, 7th month in a row of declines. wish I had sold last week! if they can't manage to increase sales with low oil prices, I don't know what will turn them around. firing the CEO hopefully...
    Dec 8, 2014. 10:08 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Weighing The Week Ahead: Time For A Santa Claus Rally? [View article]
    touching upon your theme regarding oil prices and consumer spending, there are several periods in history where crude oil fell and where the US economy grew--between Dec 1996-Dec 1998 and between July 2006-Jan 2007. During the first time period, the S&P increased by 65% and the discretionary sector went up by 80%, and during the second time period, the S&P increased by 15% and the discretionary sector went up by 26%.

    within the consumer discretionary sector, discount retailers like TGT and WMT (ROST, TJX, COST) tend to perform best when the economy grows but oil prices fall, since lower prices at the pump have a bigger effect on lower income consumers' wallets. stocks like DIS don't see as much of a bump probably because the strong dollar hurts them as much as it helps them. and probably the high end retailers aren't affected very much either.

    also, airlines are obviously a huge beneficiary of low oil prices, but they've already seen such a huge bump this year, that I'd probably be more likely to put my money towards retailers/domestically focused discretionary stocks.
    Dec 7, 2014. 04:29 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • 2 Big Names That Are Likely To Underperform In 2015 [View article]
    With every earnings report over the last couple of years, I have watched, hoped, and waited for MCD to turn it around. But it's the same old story of plunging same store sales both in the U.S. and international markets. While I think that MCD will survive decades into the future, it's going to take lots of time to turn things around.

    I commend other's patience, but I'm going to trim my MCD stock by 25% and put that cash to work in a business I feel much more confident about in the near future. (perhaps AMGN, DIS, MA) If MCD miraculously is able to reverse its downward growth trend within the next year, I'll be happy that I retained my 3/4 position. If it doesn't, I'll continue to trim another 25%.
    Dec 6, 2014. 09:36 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Rotation Into Consumer Cyclicals Makes ROST A Buy [View instapost]
    I think that the strong dollar also bodes well for retailers like ROST and TJX, with most of their operations concentrated in the U.S. Apparel continues to be a notoriously tough sub-sector, but I like how TJX and ROST are strong in the home goods dept. I think TJX is a bit more fairly valued than ROST, but have stayed away from both since I'm long both TGT and WMT. I may consider TJX on a pullback in the future.
    Dec 6, 2014. 08:55 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • The Problem With 'Waiting For A Lower Price' [View article]
    BuyandHold--you're providing examples of purchasing when the market falls off a cliff. but what if the market rises another 20% from here? even though we're reaching all-time highs now, today could still be a great day to purchase stocks using that same theory.

    or by the same token, if the S&P fell 20% tomorrow to 1658 and you were to start purchasing stocks because of that drop, then the first time we hit 1658 (around Sept 2013) would've also been a great time to buy stocks, even though you would've stopped buying stocks in March of 2013 at 1569.
    Dec 4, 2014. 06:18 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Equity Investing Or Index Investing [View article]
    for those investors adding ROST to their watchlist, also look at TJX too. perhaps a bit more undervalued, as well as nice dividend growth and forward earnings growth.
    Dec 4, 2014. 01:58 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • 3 Reasons I Prefer Dividend Growth Investing [View article]
    I had a financial advisor throughout my 20s who steered me into both DG stocks, mutual funds, as well as bonds. I never questioned their reasoning, but I believe that they probably plugged my age into a formula and came up with that particular asset allocation rather than taking my individual needs and desires to heart.

    Since taking control of my portfolio, I dumped both bonds and most of the mutual fund but have continued their legacy of investing in DG stocks.
    Dec 3, 2014. 07:52 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Is Your Lease On REITs Soon Up? [View article]
    thanks Adam. It's a great reminder to look at one's REIT holdings today to make sure they're of high enough quality to withstand future market gyrations. Once interest rates rise, it may be too late to dump any. Over the last few months I decided to jettison 2 from my portfolio--not because they weren't high quality--but because I wanted to lock in some gains from this year and pare down my REIT exposure. Selling VTR and DLR still leaves me with O, OHI, NNN, WPC, and HCN--all fairly small positions within my portfolio.
    Dec 3, 2014. 07:41 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Walt Disney Company declares $1.15 dividend [View news story]
    yay, I was simply hoping for a 20% raise! just wish I owned more...
    Dec 3, 2014. 04:22 PM | 6 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Equity Investing Or Index Investing [View article]
    mike--

    what you say makes sense. our needs differ in that I have more of a need to create a little dry powder right now, since I spent most of my kitty on a buying spree in mid-October.

    however, I will say this. you made a powerful argument in favor of buy and hold investing with your series of Nifty Fifty articles, and you made me realize that the most valuable commodity we have is time. So I want to get started sooner rather than later with the investments I hope to hold for 20, 30, 40 years into the future and jettison more of the stocks I'm simply holding and waiting for something better to replace it with. I can't tell you how often I look at stocks on my watchlist and wish I had purchased them at 2012 prices when I started DGI! It's funny how even 2 measly years makes a difference!
    Dec 3, 2014. 04:21 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Equity Investing Or Index Investing [View article]
    Mike--Interrupt away…you are a professional wordsmith!

    I'm in the same risk boat as you, with MAIN as my sole remaining high yielder (above 6%), and it's only about .6% of my portfolio. But I can't help but have this nagging feeling that I should capture my small gain and move on to greener, less speculative pastures. What would I be really giving up? A small amount of income, and not very much capital appreciation.

    The statement from the CFO of Seadrill was a wonderful warning sign to sell, but I think that kind of truthful statement from the inside ahead of time is a rare thing. Most of the time the stock plunges without warning, and then all the insider statements come out. Funny how that works out!
    I owned LNCO back in Feb 2013 when Barrons wrote a bearish article on Linn Energy's hedging strategy. At the time, LNCO responded by expressing full confidence in the validity and accuracy of its financial reporting. At the time, most people (including me) dismissed the attacks as attempts by shorts to drive the price down. Then poof, in July of 2013, the hammer of the SEC inquiry came down--and by then, the stock had dropped 30%.

    I'm not saying anything of the sort will happen to MAIN, but after seeing investors get hurt by ARCP, SDRL, PSEC, TCAP, LNCO, VNR, etc., I just don't know if I have the stomach for these high yielders. I don't mean to paint them with too broad a brush, but it wouldn't really surprise me if a creme de la creme BDC like MAIN got taken down--even if it's just collateral damage.

    If it's riskier than a bank, is it a stock really worth investing in?

    P.S. i'm not telling anyone to sell MAIN either, I'm just thinking out loud here...
    Dec 3, 2014. 01:21 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Equity Investing Or Index Investing [View article]
    joni--

    I'm sure you've seen the posts touting Fidelity freebies, but in case you haven't, make sure to take advantage of them if you qualify. Airline miles, cold hard cash, etc.

    http://bit.ly/1nF8F4z
    Dec 3, 2014. 12:21 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why I'm Considering Selling My Core Position In Coca-Cola [View article]
    Nicholas--

    I echo many of your feelings about KO, but for MCD--and frankly, the only reason why I'm still holding MCD is for its juicy yield. I haven't wanted to sell, but over the past couple of years, there's been no evidence of a turnaround. My plan is to start trimming next year and hope that a new CEO is hired in the meantime, so it'll give me a reason to stop trimming my way to a 0 position.

    As far as KO's prospects, I think they've made enough inroads into healthier, diverse product lines, that I'm still keeping the faith. MCD's attempt at innovation has been to sell their McCafe coffee in grocery stores…I personally am not buying it.
    Dec 2, 2014. 02:23 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Rarely Discussed: The Double Margin Of Safety Dividend Approach [View article]
    a special shout-out to MA today, which raised its dividend 45.5%. the forward yield is still a minuscule .74%, but I'll take it!
    Dec 2, 2014. 01:33 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
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