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kolpin

kolpin
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  • New Dividend Challengers Should Carry Warning Labels: "Caution! Not Recession Tested!" [View article]
    my concern about investing in a quality cyclical stock like DE is that it has the same potential price volatility as a quality cyclical stock like ESV.

    in the same way that I've read about the drillers' cyclical downturn over the next couple of years, I've also observed warnings about the farming cycle downturn over the next few years
    http://reut.rs/1ttgdcF
    http://reut.rs/1ttgaxw

    notably, M* has also lowered its fair value on both stocks.

    so if DE's at the top of the cycle right now, does it have the potential to fall 20% or more and is one comfortable with that?
    Oct 6, 2014. 08:26 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Effect Of Rising Interest Rates On My Portfolio [View article]
    and crazily enough, my little friend WMT actually went UP 2.5% from peak to trough!!
    Oct 2, 2014. 09:36 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • New Dividend Challengers Should Carry Warning Labels: "Caution! Not Recession Tested!" [View article]
    chowder--do you view oilfield service stocks like HAL/SLB differently than offshore drillers? I bought some SLB about a year ago--and was up by as much as 30% until the recent drop in oil prices have brought SLB down a few pegs. M* calls it their most undervalued wide-moat stock, and even though it's still highly cyclical, it has a pretty diverse product line.
    Oct 2, 2014. 09:12 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • New Dividend Challengers Should Carry Warning Labels: "Caution! Not Recession Tested!" [View article]
    Mike, and if you write an article about your ESV experience, that would surely take a few pennies off your cost basis!
    Oct 2, 2014. 08:58 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • New Dividend Challengers Should Carry Warning Labels: "Caution! Not Recession Tested!" [View article]
    chowder--I'll often accumulate new stocks instead of adding to existing stocks when a stock on my watchlist goes on sale.

    you mentioned railroads---I've owned NSC for a couple of years now, and didn't have plans to buy any others until CSX dipped to under fair value - around $26 in the beginning of February. so i couldn't resist picking up some. they cover the same geographic area, so I wasn't really diversifying with that new purchase. but I thought it was a high quality stock at the right price. if NSC had dipped during that same timeframe, I probably would've simply purchased more NSC instead.
    Oct 2, 2014. 08:54 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Utility Investing For Dividend Growth Investors: A Prospective Study [View article]
    I happened to read an article on M* today which noted a certain annual cyclicality/seasonality I've long observed in utility stock prices. even though I've been wanting to add to my utility holdings as well, it's a good reminder not to pay over fair value for such slow growers.

    http://bit.ly/1pHprQi

    "Since 2011, utilities have been on a wild roller-coaster ride, far outperforming the market for six to nine months, then far underperforming the market, then far outperforming. Fundamental performance has been steady, and we think most utilities are in as strong financial health as they have been since the U.S. and European recessions began. But investors seem to be rushing in and out of the sector with every whiff of interest rate policy shift. We think this offers opportunities for investors committed to holding utilities for the long run.
    Oct 2, 2014. 12:49 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • New Dividend Challengers Should Carry Warning Labels: "Caution! Not Recession Tested!" [View article]
    I'm like a fat kid surrounded by equally scrumptious cupcakes. i'll bite down on a perfectly good chocolate one, but then I'll need some vanilla to mellow the chocolatey flavor out, but then why not have something fruity like a strawberry to end my binge on? do I really need LMT and RTN and UTX? or COP, XOM, PSX, BP, KMI, and RDS.B?

    pretty soon, my portfolio is bulging with 80 damn cupcakes!
    Oct 2, 2014. 12:33 AM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • New Dividend Challengers Should Carry Warning Labels: "Caution! Not Recession Tested!" [View article]
    I don't know if it's just been a super tough couple of years for high yielding stocks or what, but the road seems strewn with carcasses--from SDRL to ESV to LNCO to DLR to various BDCs and mREITs, etc.

    I thankfully broke even on my LNCO and made a little money on DLR, but quit high yielders this year after seeing so many other people get hurt. After I sell my MAIN off, my highest yielding stock will be OHI, which suits me just fine!
    Oct 1, 2014. 10:54 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Retirees, You CAN Count On Dividend Stocks To Deliver From Here [View article]
    I bought some MA in April and UTX at the beginning of August and may add to both positions if we continue to drop. Right now, the market is only down a measly 3.6%, but with another 1-2% drop, I'm interested (which would hopefully mean another 3-4% drop in the stocks on my watchlist).

    I'm also eying UL, GOOGL, COP, EMR, and a few utes among others.
    Oct 1, 2014. 10:16 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • The Effect Of Rising Interest Rates On My Portfolio [View article]
    Buy-hold-rebalance---

    Re. your question about going all growth and then transferring over to DG stocks in retirement--the devil is all in the timing. I would argue that you might want to consider purchasing both kinds of stocks as they present good values.

    I'm in my mid-30s, and currently about 85% of my portfolio are DG stocks and 15% are higher growth stocks--some of which do not pay dividends. I may tinker with the ratio a bit to increase my growth stock quotient a few percentage points over the next couple of decades (80/20), and then weight more heavily into DG stocks when I hit my 60s (90/10).

    IMHO, that's a lot easier than going all in or all out in one fell swoop.
    Oct 1, 2014. 12:51 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Illustrating Why Colgate-Palmolive Is A Leveraged Buyout Candidate [View article]
    Alexander--you made a great call on CL awhile back when it dipped for a nano-second. unfortunately, I did not heed your siren call. though fortunately, I have benefitted from many other articles of yours, including many calls on WAG, UNH, and AMGN, etc.

    I am so thrilled that my SA nomination of you resulted in a well-deserved win. it looks like we have both made each other money now, hah!!
    Sep 29, 2014. 10:37 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Let's Talk About The Nifty Fifty And Dividend Growth Investing [View article]
    you've definitely made the case that we can be horrible investors if we've got 40 years to let our money compound! yippee!

    however, I think a word of caution is warranted for folks that may have only 10 years or less…I assume that the numbers would have been less rosy on a shorter time frame?

    also, a quick nit---if your theoretical scenario involves buying all Nifty Fifty stocks, wouldn't you have to deduct some actual negative losses from the $3.7 million figure above?
    Sep 26, 2014. 11:15 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Dividends Vs. Capital Appreciation: Wrong Question [View article]
    mike/Chowder---

    I have no problem "paying up" for quality growth stocks either, but don't like to overpay--meaning I cap my investments to growth stocks under a PE of 30 (i think that anything over that and valuation becomes pretty disconnected from earnings).

    chowder, I'd be interested to see if you arrive at some kind of chowder golden growth formula. I don't adhere to a formula per say, but i'm long stocks like MA, GILD, ESRX, AMGN, SLB, and I think all of them were at a discount to M*'s FV when I purchased them.

    however, I have been eying GOOGL and DIS for quite sometime, and both of those are overvalued. I don't think either would qualify for your earnings growth is > PE ratio formula.
    Sep 24, 2014. 12:39 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Halliburton Investors Get Another Bite At The Apple [View article]
    Ray/Dag1996--

    I'm long SLB, HAL's fraternal twin and topped off my position recently.

    I'm not long any offshore drillers (like ESV and SDRL) but have seen them decline precipitously as of late. are the issues which are impacting the drillers specific to them (e.g. declining day rates, increased drilling costs), or are there industry-wide issues beyond weakening crude oil prices that could potentially push service companies like HAL/SLB down further?
    Sep 23, 2014. 05:13 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • When To Trim? [View article]
    Inz--I agree that there's no rush to deploy cash as it seems like better values lay ahead, but if you believe that pipelines are interest rate sensitive, why not put your cash towards an underweighted, undervalued stock in your portfolio that would either benefit from higher interest rates or at the very least isn't correlated? then your sale would kinda make sense to me, so it doesn't feel like you're simply just shifting money around.

    from a glance at one of your portfolio articles, potential candidates nearing fair value could include GE, UL, AFL, GIS, WAG
    Sep 23, 2014. 01:59 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
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