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kolpin

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  • Patience, Cash And Dividend Growth Investing [View article]
    It's really BIIB that is tanking the the sector. Down 20% and counting! I had Biogen on my watchlist, but glad now I never pulled the trigger.
    Jul 24, 2015. 02:51 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Patience, Cash And Dividend Growth Investing [View article]
    For those interested in UTX, M* just RAISED its Fair Value to $120, which would make it almost 18% undervalued. S&P Capital IQ also values it at $120.70.

    M*'s analysis below:

    "Conceding earlier overconfidence in both UT Aerospace Systems and Otis, United Technologies decreased full-year revenue and profitability guidance, causing a market sell-off of UTX shares. While consolidated revenue (still including Sikorsky) grew a respectable 3% year over year excluding currency and other one-time effects, mounting weakness in commercial aerospace aftermarket sales and ongoing headwinds in Otis' important European and Chinese markets cast doubt on the company’s ability to reach 2015 revenue goals. Soft sales in these two segments, combined with unfavorable business mix at Pratt & Whitney, culminated in nearly 50 basis points of consolidated operating margin decline to 16.6% in the quarter. Monday's Sikorsky sale prompted us to raise our fair value estimate to $120 per share, and we stand by our belief that UTX's portfolio changes justify our valuation. In particular, we continue to believe that a more concentrated portfolio is capable of generating low-to-mid single digit organic revenue growth at higher margins.

    In our opinion, the market's negative reaction to lower near-term guidance fails to take into account improving longer-term prospects at UTX, incited by new CEO Greg Hayes' sweeping review of the company's wide-moat businesses."
    Jul 23, 2015. 10:34 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • RoseNose's Adventure To Reacquire Shares Of 3M Company... And Buy Now! [View article]
    rose---I think AAPL is a case of a stock being unfairly punished. If they don't beat on every metric by a mile (as they used to during the Steve Jobs era), then the stock often declines. Jobs had a reputation of sandbagging earnings, so of course AAPL topped every earnings expectation during its growthier era.

    QCOM on the other hand consistently misses on every metric, they're losing market share, and it seems like every few months their regulatory woes continue to build. First it was China--where QCOM gets almost 50% of their revenues. Then the Federal Trade Commission, the EU and South Korea have all launched anti-trust investigations.

    I understand if others choose to hang onto QCOM, but since I'm more oriented towards total return than income, it's safe to say that I plan to sell on any pop in the stock.
    Jul 23, 2015. 06:05 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Mondelēz declares $0.17 dividend [View news story]
    not too shabby.
    Jul 23, 2015. 05:22 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • RoseNose's Adventure To Reacquire Shares Of 3M Company... And Buy Now! [View article]
    Scott--

    Count me also as a frustrated QCOM long who has not had my limit order to sell strike yet. (it's been on since December) i've lowered it several times, now sitting at $72.50. May have to readjust lower again.

    The divvy growth doesn't mean much to me if it can't generate a positive earnings report. I honestly can't remember one in the last couple of years, where it met top and bottom line expectations.
    Jul 22, 2015. 04:50 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Differing Outlooks On The Market [View article]
    Chow--

    I just sold my GOOGL position on the earnings pop and bought some LOW with the $. Still like GOOGL a lot, but am too heavily weighted in technology in my portfolio. If I had more cash on hand and less technology in my portfolio, I would have kept GOOGL and simply bought LOW too.

    Good luck to both your son and me!
    Jul 22, 2015. 03:09 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • RoseNose's Adventure To Reacquire Shares Of 3M Company... And Buy Now! [View article]
    Rose--

    S&P Capital IQ gives MMM a Fair Value of $138.30--which would make it quite overvalued. Did you factor their FV into account or dismiss it when determining your own FV? Or do you only consider Morningstar's FV when you determine your own buy price for stocks? Did you take MMM's cyclicality into account when determining your own FV?

    thanks, and great to see you publish an article!!
    Jul 22, 2015. 03:01 PM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Emerson - Now An Excellent Income Play [View article]
    chowder et al--

    ITW is one that has always been on my watchlist. M* also has a double digit discount to FV, but S&P says it's slightly overvalued. Same goes for MMM--slightly under FV for M*, grossly overvalued for S&P.

    Without looking at other cyclicals, upon first glance, it appears that the two don't synch up as consistently on FV with cyclicals. Perhaps I'd suggest considering VL or a 3rd source when looking at valuing cyclical stocks?
    Jul 22, 2015. 02:03 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • The Most Undervalued And Overvalued Dividend Champions - July '15 [View article]
    thanks for the article, PTI!

    After conducting such an extensive analysis, have you discovered if the 1 yr PAAY is a more meaningful metric or is the 5 yr PAAY? Have you found that one more accurately predicts fair value? Perhaps stocks that have dipped temporarily in price are more likely to be found on the 1 yr PAAY list, while more cyclical stocks that have dipped b/c of larger earnings troughs would be found on the 1 yr and 5 yr PAAY list? Just trying to make sense of it all...

    Also, it seems to me that certain stocks may stay on these lists for some time…energy stocks, for example--due to larger macro issues. So perhaps one may want to pay more attention to stocks that are recent additions to the undervalued list or deletions from the overvalued list. In fact, the two stocks mentioned above that most interest me are LOW and MDT--they're not the most undervalued, but they've made significant steps away from being overvalued.
    Jul 8, 2015. 12:46 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Differing Outlooks On The Market [View article]
    nice chowder--I'm still stalking LOW and a few others first, but I'll be very interested to see how DKS turns out for you.

    do you intend to return to less speculative stocks for future Project $3 Million purchases this year, or will it wholly depend on valuation? also, do you have a specific percentage of this portfolio which you allocate towards utility stocks? It looks to be around 6% right now between the two holdings of D and SO.
    Jul 7, 2015. 10:57 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • My 30 Stocks For 30 Years: Q2 2015 Update [View article]
    this is a minor quibble, but depending on how impt sector allocation is to you, you may want to check with a few sources to make sure your stocks are categorized in the correct sectors.

    for example, CSX and FAST are most often considered industrials, along with GE. NKE is almost always put in the Consumer Discretionary sector (or as you call "Services), since it's less of a necessity purchase, like DIS. Arguably, CVS and COST belong in the same sector as well. some of this is subjective obviously, but if you do enough rejiggering, you might find yourself overexposed to certain sectors or underexposed to others.
    Jul 6, 2015. 10:45 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Are Dividend Growth Investors Livin' Too Large? [View article]
    chowder--
    have you ever looked at DKS (Dick's Sporting Goods), PZZA (Papa Johns), TXRH (Texas Roadhouse), CAKE (Cheesecake Factory), WSM (Williams Sonoma) ,AZO (Autozone), HSNI (Home Shopping Network), VSI (Vitamin Shoppe), SHOO (Steve Madden), BKE (The Buckle), AAN (Aaron's), CRI (Carter's), TIF (Tiffany's), LB (L Brands)?
    I haven't done any due diligence on any of these but most of these are consumer stocks from Crossing Wall St's annual watchlists.
    Jul 1, 2015. 10:42 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • W.P. Carey: A Real Estate Investment For All Seasons [View article]
    maybe--what's your NNN buy price? I nibbled on a little OHI yesterday...
    Jun 26, 2015. 01:48 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • W.P. Carey: A Real Estate Investment For All Seasons [View article]
    berloe--

    Did you buy a full stake in WPC? if not, have you considered topping off your position on a day like today?
    Jun 25, 2015. 12:03 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Shopping For REITs Today? Conduct A Competent Inspection [View article]
    timely article, Adam. Volatility should be embraced rather than feared with regards to purchasing quality stocks. I don't know where the bottom for REITs will be, but I suspect that if investors wait until after rates have been raised (be it September, December, or 2016), they may miss out on some good entry points.

    I had not added to my OHI position since Nov 2012 until today. Happy with my purchase price of $34.71.
    Jun 25, 2015. 12:00 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
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