jay brebner

How Much Is Fed Suppressing Mortgage Rates?

Why are there incentives to originate a mortgage but not to pay off a mortgage? If anything there should be a tax credit based on monthly payments made and not the purchase. We are hoping to refinance early next year and are praying rates stay <5% until then. I will be buying SRS ~$6.00 after x-mas to pay the closing costs. Going in to 2010 election cycle there is no way IMO the admin or congress can extend the fed balance sheet further. I'm not sure how regional housing markets will effect the elections but on the whole I think the calculation will be to end/decrease the subsidies rather than risk the backlash of extending them further and increasing the risk of inflation, which will be (is) the GOP mantra. Voters will be more prepared to accept the pain in housing in return for less inflation and more jobs.

Four Reasons We're Headed Even Higher

I am not an expert and don't know my ass from elbow re technical analysis but I agree totally (starting in early August - not that it matters) with this analysis. This recent event has been handled completely differently than 1930 with much better information. There may be a thick fog bank of uncertainty ahead (banks of all sizes I'm sure) but right now most the indicators say we are starting an expansion. How long it lasts will depend on Bernanke working his nuts off to keep things stable, which is a real possibility. Further, while this has made people scared, it has also focused our collective attention on the future in a meaningful and constructive way (will be interesting to see turnout in mid-term elections). We still are democratic (small d) and capitalistic enough to have a say in our future. The overwhelming majority of people are not looking for a permanent handout. Lots of silver linings will have been generated by this storm.

Was August 6 the Stock Market Top for 2009?

Dave,
its your cerebral cortex that is telling to sell. your celebellum is helping you type accurately.

GS Oct 140 and 130 puts up 20 and 15% respectively. Probably all by Goldman itself.