Seeking Alpha

lichan

lichan
Send Message
View as an RSS Feed
View lichan's Comments BY TICKER:
Latest  |  Highest rated
  • Why Apple 'Gets Away With It' In China [View article]
    I was told in Javanese culture, a true leader should be seen to be doing very little and yet things happens as if the leader did it. This shows just how powerful the leader truly is: no need to look like he is powerful or working or shouting or demonstrating, but still everything gets done according to his wishes.

    Because if a leader needs to be up there shouting and demonstrating and dramatising, what power does he really have?

    While this contrast makes me smile, I'm reminded that there are 2 types of leadership. Those who lead with huge amounts of charisma and those who lead more quietly. Neither life nor leadership is ever so simple that we can just cut everything into a binary format. There is a place and time for each type of leadership. But I do think Tim Cook is the latter type of leader, quiet but effective.
    May 13, 2015. 09:58 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Cowen survey: Android-to-iPhone defections growing [View news story]
    Errrr - what are widgets?

    Seriously, :-D
    Mar 25, 2015. 02:23 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple sets Watch prices; pre-orders start on April 10 [View news story]
    No you are not the only one who will find this watch useful. I do too.

    As a woman who has to pull her iPhone out of her handbag a dozen times a day (I often wear skirts and dresses without handy pockets and a holster just don't look good with that skirt - Duh!!!) I can see precisely the use that you described.

    However, being conservative, I'll probably wait till at least the end of this year before buying an apple watch. I want to read more about the pros and cons of the apple watch, and what it can do in terms of monitoring vital signs such as blood pressure etc. before I get one.
    Mar 10, 2015. 05:00 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Fossil Group: Desperate For An Answer To Apple Watch [View article]
    I wrote elsewhere that in my opinion that Women (of the non Fan girl variety) would be interested in the Apple Watch - for utilitarian purposes. Women usually carry their phones in their handbags where we don't always hear it ring or feel it vibrating, where if we want to tell the time, we have to unzip the handbag and pull it, check the time, put it back and rezip the bag. Repeat and rinse for every phone call we answer, every sms we want to send. Or we have to leave it on our desk where we can see it buzz ..... I'm telling you, it's inconvenient.

    If Apple produces a watch which buzzes on my wrist, shows my messages, allows me to send a quick message (e.g. "Cant talk now" "OMW" Call you back later") response, allows me to monitor the number of steps I take a day (fitbit anyone?), even may be, take a phone call, syncs with my music, my iPad and my macbook, and basically makes it easier for me to do several things on my apple watch rather then my iPhone, then yep, I'll consider buying the apple watch for utilitarian purposes. I probably won't get for at least 18 months though. I'd want to wait to see the different applications and improvements first.
    Feb 25, 2015. 02:04 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple Numbers Get Serious [View article]
    My comment is slightly off topic: APPLE WATCH SALES

    Quite a few apple analysts have given the view that they had reservations about how well the apple watch will sell. One of the concerns being that the sales of apple watches will not replace the fall in sales in iPad and iPad mini, will not be a big driver of revenue for Apple.

    I wonder if most of these analysts are men, I wonder if women might have quite a different perspective to the apple watch.

    Most men I know pop their mobile phone in one of their pockets and pull it out when it buzzes or rings or when they want to check the time. Most men wear clothing with pockets all the time.

    Most women don't wear clothing with pockets all the time. So, just about every woman I know put their mobile phone in their handbags/computer bags - and have to remember to take it out of their bags. This causes a few problems. For a start, if a woman wants to check the time, a woman needs to open her handbag, pull out the phone and check it, put it back. Then there's the hassle of remembering to turn your phone back from vibrate to ring before you put it back into the handbag so you can hear the phone calls, coz you can't feel the vibrations of the phone in the handbag, unlike if the phone were in your pocket. If I'm at home and I'm not wearing something with pockets, I have to leave the phone out in a place where I can hear the phone ring. If I'm in the kitchen, I might not hear it ringing if I leave it in the living room.

    And then there's the reality in most countries where mothers still have most of the responsibility about managing the home and children even if they work outside it

    Zipping, unzipping, rezipping (or you can substitute buckling), having to remember to switch a phone from vibrate to ring, etc etc are are small, but cumulative hassles for a typical woman which most would rather not deal with if they can avoid it. hence the apple phone. I think a lot of women and mothers in particular would find these functions attractive enough to make them consider buying an apple watch that's strapped to our wrists:

    (1) read the time;

    (2) it vibrates telling us that a message, phone call has arrived or an appointment is due regardless of whether our phones are in our handbags, living room or garden or garage;

    (3) read the message, appointment, note, even answer the call with a quick sms to say "I'm in a meeting. Call you later."

    (4) is an additional piece of security for Apple pay. You need 2 pieces of hardware to sync along with our thumbprints before you can use apple pay.

    (5) has apps which will allow us to replace the fitbit that we are already wearing on our wrists right now.

    (6) has the apps which allows me to measure my blood pressure when I'm yelling at the kids :-) (and other health focussed apps).

    (7) the apple watch syncs seamlessly with the iPhone, the iPad, the Macbook, the family's macbook, iPad and iPhone and the whole eco system.

    All that stuff about specs, and whether the Samsung phone is better than the other. Once a family is on an Apple platform, most mothers I've talked to don't give a damn about individual specs.. Mothers, just want everything to work so that they can manage the children and the household and their work as easily and seamlessly as possible because most mothers juggle and when all the electronic devices talk together, that's just one thing a mother does NOT have to juggle.

    (8) Then of course, the big one. When Internet of Things takes off in our homes, we don't want to have to carry our iPhones all the time. Remember, we are women and we don't always wear clothing with pockets. But a wristwatch can be always on and we can control IoT stuff with the watch.

    So, my hypothesis is that:

    (a) women will be big buyers of the apple watch because we don't want to adopt fashion which requires us to wear clothing with pockets all the time.

    (b) sales of apple watch will take time to ramp up because there aren't nearly as many early adopting fangirls as there are early adopting fanboys of technology. But women may end up adopting the apple watch in large numbers - perhaps more then men.

    Perhaps that's one reason why Angela Ahrendts was hired. She knows women, knows fashion, knows what it will take to appeal to women. So, unlike the google glasses, I think in the medium term, the apple watch has a bright future. Whether that's enough to move the needle on revenues in Apple significantly - is the 64 billion dollar question.
    Feb 12, 2015. 09:52 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • IDC 2014 Smartphone Data: Apple Catches Up On Samsung; The Chinese Aren't Too Far Behind [View article]
    I too, agree with Ben Frost's statement. My husband owns an iPhone 4 and has been using it every day for 4+ years. It's still working well thanks to regular software upgrades. Given how hard that iPhone 4 works, given how the hardware specs are rather out of date,given how the iPhone 4's memory is FULL after 4 years, it's remarkable how well it really works. It's probably about 1 to 2 seconds slower than then my iPhone 5. When hubby upgrades to an iPhone 6 in a few weeks time, we'll pass the iPhone 4 to our teenager.

    I don't see myself upgrading from my iPhone 5 for another 2 years or until ApplePay happens in my country, which ever is earlier.

    So an upgrade once every 3 to 4 years - but it's unlikely we'll migrate to an Android ....
    Feb 3, 2015. 07:24 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple: In The Smartphone Race, Samsung Has Already Lost [View article]
    On watch makers, I think that Apple will work with some of the watch makers like Swatch.
    Jan 29, 2015. 09:53 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Secret To Apple's Huge Quarter [View article]
    Hmmm, if you think there has been channel stuffing in the last quarter, then are you saying that Apple Management is lying about how supply of it's iPhones have just caught up with demand in January 2015?

    I don't think Apple Management need to lie to boost the numbers up in the last quarter ending 31 December 2014. If anything, Apple management would be better off to hold back on some numbers so that they can smoothen the revenue ups and downs in this quarter 31 March 2015. Don't you think?
    Jan 29, 2015. 09:46 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Secret To Apple's Huge Quarter [View article]
    Yes, that's true, there are hundreds of knockoff Rolex's, Hermes handbags etc in China, for wannabes and try hards. But those who have achieve the required level of affluence and care about "face" and brands, don't want to be seen with knockoffs. Because if they are discovered to be using knockoffs, it affects their "face".

    The other truth about iPhone is just the ecosystem. Unless Xiaomi can compete at that level, younger, educated Chinese will want access to Apple's ecosystem and ease of use.
    Jan 29, 2015. 09:38 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • RBC: Gilead could launch $10B+ accelerated buyback [View news story]
    The FDA approved ABBV's drugs based on the clinical trial data collected from a number of different clinical trial sites. The clinical trial data do not show that any of the 2300 patients taking ABBV drugs suffered any significant adverse effects. According to the data, any adverse effects were minor and well tolerated or managed.

    The data is what it is and that's why FDA has approved it.

    Of course, when ABBV drugs are taken by large numbers of people, we may hear about more people suffering significant adverse effects.
    Dec 28, 2014. 08:34 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Sovaldi Versus Abbvie Combination: Analysis Of Abbvie Combination Impact On Sovaldi Market Share [View article]
    For the week ending 21 November 2014, Matthew Roden,UBS analyst reported 4,366 prescriptions for Harvoni. That's in ONE week but I'm not sure if these were all new prescriptions.

    So, being conservative, I'll assume

    (a) 2,000 new prescriptions a week; and

    (b) ABBV prices it's treatment programme at $5,000 less than Harvoni.

    Based on these numbers, if insurance companies funds only ABBV's treatment programme for 2000 patients per week, they will collectively save 2,000 x 5000 = $10,000,000 each week . Multiply 10,000,000 by 50 weeks and insurance companies collectively save $500,000,000 (that's $0.5 Billion).

    Assuming average treatment period using Harvoni is 10 and not 12 weeks the COST PER TREATMENT would be approximately $80,000. $5,000 represents 6.25% discount for 10 weeks of Harvoni.

    Remember, from the data submitted to the FDA, ABBV's treatment for Genotype 1 is equal to that of Harvoni - i.e., over 90% cure rate.
    Dec 2, 2014. 09:54 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Drug makers face pushback on pricey meds [View news story]
    Nonsense! All over Europe and australia and other first world countries with single payer medical care, we are paying less for medications then the US. Obamacare cannot magically make everything better. It does however help people like my nephew who cannot get medical care because of a preexisting condition.
    Nov 25, 2014. 10:33 AM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Gilead Has Been Rocked After Earnings, But I'm Looking To Buy! [View article]
    As I understand it, as far as HIV goes, GILD's Viread (Tenofuvir (sp??)) is still the main antiviral for HIV. Even GILD's TAF is a variation of the basic drug, Tenofuvir. So, there are NO real competitors to GILD's tenofuvir.

    If my understanding is correct, then GILD's HIV situation is quite different to it's HCV situation where there are real equivalent medications to Harvoni coming out.
    Nov 20, 2014. 04:13 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Gilead Has Been Rocked After Earnings, But I'm Looking To Buy! [View article]
    Generally, big pharma's don't start price wars. Usually big pharmas don't act like patent trolls. However, the amount of profits at stake for ABBV has already changed its behaviour.

    ABBV needs to grab market share from GILD and get doctors who have been prescribing Harvoni for the last 2 months and Sofosbuvir for the last 12 months to switch to ABBV's drugs. Perhaps ABBV may decide to break the usual mould and price below Harvoni, and especially - offer an first year discount. You know, usual price is $75,000 but in the first year, it's $40,000. Just to lure doctors to prescribing it. Just to get market share. It's still a huge profit for ABBV and company's like Express Script may take that. No?? What do you think?
    Nov 20, 2014. 04:10 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Gilead Has Been Rocked After Earnings, But I'm Looking To Buy! [View article]
    Just 2 thoughts:

    (1) ABBV's patent filing. Patents are where the law meets cutting edge technology and you'd need expert advice from both the IP lawyers AND the technical folks to understand whether ABBV's patent claims have merit, and whether GILD's infringes them. Also, if GILD does infringe ABBV's patents, whether GILD has any WORKAROUNDS to avoid infringing ABBV's patents in the future.

    (2) ABBV's Hep C drugs are likely to be approved - although, until it is, nothing is 100% certain. Assuming that ABBV's Hep C combination is approved, we know that ABBV is going to take some market share. How much of a market share - 5% or 25%, no one is certain. I think many investors are taking profit as a result of this uncertainty - after all, for those who bought the stock at $85 and under, they are sitting on a 30%+ profit if they sold-out at $110.00. This is especially the case for Fund Managers who will want to lock in their profits before year end.

    I suspect that there will be a measure of over-correction so I'm looking to start buying the stock if the price falls below $90. I will start writing put options as GILD falls below 100 to make some premiums during that time.
    Nov 17, 2014. 09:36 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
COMMENTS STATS
33 Comments
52 Likes