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The US Dollar Elevator is Going Up!

Our saving grace is that our debts are denominated in US dollars.

I fail to understand your hypothesis regarding the money spent by consumers not exceeding the money spent by businesses. are you saying consumer spending cannot exceed earned wages? I would say the net negative savings rate of americans disagrees with you.

Have you observed those financial sector write-downs? These businesses (banks) are acknowledging their assets are worth less than what they paid for them. For material assets this would be deflation, but it's monetary assets. That X dollar value loss in value was real money borrowed and spent by consumers, but not being repaid in full. That is real consumer spending, but it will not re-emerge in the real economy to be spent by businesses because it was an asset. The businesses that held these written down assets, are (gasp) banks and they make money through loans that cannot be made because that money is gone. The money the banks must hold in reserve to take these losses came from somewhere right? That money was for future loans.

We are going to accomplish through exports a return to the top? I guess we better learn from the chinese, they are the king of exports. How do they do it? Labor costs, its a race to the bottom if we compete on that level. Kiss your wealth goodbye if you want to play that game.