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HappyInvestor

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  • NQ Mobile: Jumping To Conclusions, The Muddy Waters Board Game [View article]
    The company is a Chinese company. U.S. GAAP rules and SOX requirements are very difficult for them to comply with especially when they are a fairly new company with sizable growth. SOX certifications over internal controls and auditors review of those certifications are very complicated. Most Chinese companies struggle with this. Many have delisted because of it. If there is a deficiency in internal controls as was noted in the D&T study, it takes time to resolve. All this has nothing to do with whether or not the key aspects of the financial statements were accurate.
    Jul 9 04:51 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • NQ Mobile: Oops [View article]
    Shame on the SEC for allowing Muddy Waters to make such publicly unsupported claims against companies with the intent to manipulate the stock for his personal benefit.
    Jul 7 01:41 PM | 14 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • NQ Mobile: Oops [View article]
    The author basically makes two points without any real support. First, that the increased volume in late June meant insiders were leaked information about the July 3rd announcement and dumped their shares. Second, that PWC's request for a broader audit scope is a misrepresentation and must have been raised many months ago. With respect to the first item, the author presents no evidence as to who was actually selling shares. It could easily have been the largest shareholder Altimeter reducing its position as has been reported to have occurred in their 13D filing. It could have also been other short sellers like the author trying to drive the stock price down. To conclude that it must have been from insiders who were intentionally leaked information is just silly without more evidence demonstrating where the leak came from and who actually sold their shares. Second, the additional audit scope request of PWC was likely made in light of the findings of the D&T study which was only released in June. D&T questioned the sufficiency of the internal controls at NQ and any auditor would be required to investigate that claim especially before issuing an opinion on the adequacy of internal controls at NQ. Odd how the author does not mention this possibility. In my view, the article is clearly biased so believe the contents at your own risk.
    Jul 7 01:02 PM | 12 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Nearly Everything About Ally Financial IPO Is Promising For Investors [View article]
    What about the fact that GM has started its own finance company to compete with ALLY and Chrysler has selected another company to be a preferred lender to its dealers and customers? Since neither GM or Chrysler seem to want to support the company anymore and it has sold off its foreign operations, where is the growth going to come from?
    Apr 9 03:35 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Resurrection Of J. C. Penney: It's Not All About The Numbers [View article]
    Wow. A positive Bull case article on JCP. Nice job. Thanks for a good and worthwhile read.
    Feb 21 03:34 PM | 6 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • J.C. Penney: So Much Noise, And What The Retail CDS Is Telling Us [View article]
    I don't see JCP considering bankruptcy anytime soon. Just a scare tactic by shorts. Goldman Sachs handled an equity issue in September at $9.65 per share. CEO bought shares with his own money at $8.95. Shorts know transition numbers always look bad so they play it up to profit. At some point, that play becomes exposed. They have $2 billion in liquidity, an increase from Q3. Lots of additionally liquidity from old inventory liquidation. Let's hope ER exposes near term BK talk as silly.
    Feb 21 08:35 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Loeb buys into BlackBerry, shares +2% AH [View news story]
    Dan did the same thing with Nokia. I think he takes advantage of situations where he sees that large short positions are going to be covering which usually drives up the stock price significantly. Not clear, however, how long term his investment intentions are.
    Feb 15 11:55 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • 2014 Will Be The Tipping Point For Apple [View article]
    Clearly a biased article. You are foolish to bet against Icahn. Buy backs will continue this year, the dividend will increase, new products categories will make a big splash, the Iphone 6 with a larger screen will be a hit with Apple fans, developing markets will grow significantly and the stock price will respond accordingly. My guess is you are hoping for a repeat of last year but I don't see that happening with the aforementioned tailwinds this year. Good luck with your short position.
    Feb 9 10:15 AM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Turnaround At J.C. Penney Might Not Be In The Cards [View article]
    Is that the same Goldman that helped them raise $800 million in equity in September? I think their opinion changed already.
    Feb 1 01:36 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Turnaround At J.C. Penney Might Not Be In The Cards [View article]
    And what is your evidence that JCP will not make it through 2014? They are expected to have $2 billion in liquidity available. That should support them for quite a while even if turn around does not happen as quick as expected. I interpret "pleased with holiday sales" to mean the turn around is on track which is what they said and we should see with quarterly earnings release. Shorts really do like to take advantage of "quiet periods" to drive fear for short term profit.
    Jan 31 08:40 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Turnaround At J.C. Penney Might Not Be In The Cards [View article]
    The analysis seems a bit "short" sided. Do you think Goldman Sachs would be part of an $800 million equity offering in September if they thought the company would go bankrupt in the near future? Did you review their due diligence materials used for the equity offering? JCP made the same mistake Sears made a while ago. They tried to go with a single low price without sales. Didn't work for Sears and it didn't work for JCP. Now they are back to offering sales and discounts that consumers want. We saw slight improvement in October sales numbers and a significant improvement in November sales. Company says they are pleased with holiday sales and turn around is on track. I believe them. They are also closing under performing stores (less than 5%) and making the right moves in reducing costs (employees). The turn around is well underway. Financial performance will easily improve as sales volume improves and I expect the stock price to respond accordingly.
    Jan 30 07:46 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • BlackBerry: Rebirth Of The Original Gangster [View article]
    I agree with you. I have been a Blackberry Bull but this rapid stock price rise has gotten ahead of the facts. I expect next quarter's earnings to be a wake call that more work still has to be done by Chen and company. One short seller public reversal was nice to see on Friday but I think many short sellers had already decided it was time to close out their position based on the reduction in the December 31st short sale summary. Only additional input from that short seller was throwing out a high target price without real support (other than an indication that they had now invested in the stock). The DoD announcement on Monday was actually known last December when the DoD announced they would implement their new software in January (which was not actually done by Blackberry). The 80,000 units are most likely already deployed devices. The sale of real estate is a mechanism to raise more cash. Why are they doing that is not yet clear. Perhaps the surprising cash burn we saw last quarter (which burning through the significant tax refund) has not completely stopped yet. Their is no evidence that their devices are selling or that they have stopped the erosion of their service business yet, Chen said the turn around would take up to 18 months, and I believe him. The next earnings announcement and guidance should be very interesting.
    Jan 22 09:36 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • BlackBerry Set To Plummet [View article]
    It doesn't matter as long as it can stabilize at $3 billion of sales per year, which is what I believe you used as your assumption in your article. I think that is easily doable and should grow from there in the long run. I've ignored that growth potential in my estimate.
    Jan 16 10:38 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • BlackBerry Set To Plummet [View article]
    Your valuation for a service business is far too conservative. Most service businesses sell at 2 to 3 times sales multiples. Using those multiples, the value is between $6 to $9 billion. Very few service businesses sell at a .5 multiple. The choice of multiple drives the conclusion in your article so I think you should spend some more time explaining your logic for only using .5. Also, to assume BBM and cash at zero value seems unrealistic. Combined, they are probably worth closer to $2 to $3 billion than zero. Patents alone are easily worth $1.5 billion. Real estate is unclear but the property has supposedly appreciated significantly in value. Based on the foregoing, a sum of parts value is likely closer to $9.5 to $13.5 billion than your $3 billion. Remaining shorts are in trouble and I don't think they will see the stock price decline to the values you suggest anytime soon.
    Jan 15 03:10 PM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • BlackBerry's Funeral May Have To Wait. It Seems To Have Returned From The Dead [View article]
    I think you left out Blackberry finding a way to monetize its patent portfolio. That could be the next big mover of the stock and it could be significant.
    Jan 11 09:37 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
COMMENTS STATS
158 Comments
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