sivleyd

My Index Based Investments

Your rule to "never invest at historical highs" sounds like genius today. Most of us would like to take back our investments we held at the highs of 2007. However, I suspect you have not actually used this rule, because it doesn't really work. If you look at a long term chart of SPY, for example, you will see that almost all of the gains have generally come from highs that just keep coming. You also say that 50% down is a good time to get in. Yep! But how many times in history has that happened? There's only been one since 1871 - the Great Depression. And yes, if you were alive back then and had money to invest in 1932, you would have seen a full recovery of that 84% drop (if you got in at the very bottom moment). But then you would have sold at the next historical high. And you would have been sitting out the market since then. Yes, this is a great time to invest after a 50% drop. And ETFs are fine. Better rethink your investment rule. It hasn't worked in over 70 years!

A Five-Step Plan to Prevent Great Depression II

1) While eliminating taxes for a year would be very popular, companies are not going to build their businesses on a temporary change in tax policy. They will just bank the extra cash to help endure the downturn. And I don't think the Fed has authority to force states to eliminate sales tax. Besides, at some point we have to stop digging ourselves deeper in debt.
2) While gov't does need to reduce spending, a 25% spending cut would have the reverse effect on the economy. It would add more depression to the sinking ship. And where exactly would you make a cut of that magnitude? Cancel SSI or Medicare?
3) We cannot back our currency with gold because we are so far in debt. And any attempt to move that direction will further depress the economy as it takes spending power out of flow.
4&5) These are great steps to take, but it won't bring us out of recession/depression.

Is the Bear Hibernating Already? Doubtful

Members won't actually "grab 92% of the gain". Instead they will need the ETF to gain 8% in 3 months just to break even on the deal. And if it goes down, they have the put to protect their loss - and give them an assured 8% loss. With each put being 3 months, the annual cost of protection for the ETF investment is well over 24%. That doesn't sound good to me.

On the Dollar and Commodities: Currencies Move Because We Let Them

Great charts! And excellent comments based upon facts. Once could ARGUE one way or another. But a picture is worth a thousand words. And often, the right charts tell the significant story better than a thousand reporters spouting words. Thank you!

Second Worst Month For Commodities Ever

What seems strange to me is
1) how long it stayed flat at 100
2) how long it held in the 200-250 range
Seems we were due for some serious catching up.